# Atlas Arteria (ALX.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALX.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 3.79 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 1.04 per share, central AUD 1.42 per share, high AUD 1.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 1.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.90×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -61.17×

- FY2017: -0.25×

- FY2018: -0.65×

- FY2019: -0.02×

- FY2020: -0.29×

- FY2021: -0.25×

- FY2022: -0.20×

- FY2023: -0.04×

- FY2024: -0.06×

- FY2025: -0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -0.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.7%

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -0.1%

- FY2020: -0.5%

- FY2021: -0.5%

- FY2022: -0.3%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: -0.2%

- FY2025: -0.1%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 13.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 72.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 1.23×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 2.34×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -2.0% vs -0.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.43 to 0.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 10.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 7.2%

- Market cap gain: AUD 4.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD -1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 7.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.8%

- Per-share value change: AUD -0.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.43

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 2.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 2.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -2.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -0.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: AUD 0.43

- FY2017: AUD 0.74

- FY2018: AUD 0.05

- FY2019: AUD -0.01

- FY2020: AUD -0.10

- FY2021: AUD 0.16

- FY2022: AUD 0.22

- FY2023: AUD 0.22

- FY2024: AUD 0.23

- FY2025: AUD 0.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.85×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.37×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.35×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 20.5%

- FY2017: 12.5%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: -1.5%

- FY2020: -2.6%

- FY2021: 2.2%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: 3.0%

- FY2024: 2.9%

- FY2025: -4.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 50% since Jun 2022 · sales +10.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.895Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 20% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: AUD 2.7M 

- FY2017: AUD 83M 

- FY2018: AUD 132M 

- FY2019: AUD 168M 

- FY2020: AUD 105M 

- FY2021: AUD 101M 

- FY2022: AUD 118M 

- FY2023: AUD 134M 

- FY2024: AUD 145M 

- FY2025: AUD 160M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 81.7% 

- FY2018: 75.7% 

- FY2019: 23.3% 

- FY2022: 0.1% 

- FY2023: 12.2% 

- FY2024: 95.7% 

- FY2025: 8.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in infrastructure operations; annual sales are AUD 160 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2025: revenue 160000000; grossProfit 13500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.4% to 95.7% during 2023–25; it lost 0.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 95.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.1874719757249045],[2017,-0.005675361563293369],[2018,-0.020080616472343462],[2019,-0.0005031444534217407],[2020,-0.004943164999474033],[2021,-0.005080360019412012],[2022,-0.002996353011121328],[2023,-0.0006583412658839883],[2024,-0.0016608206922291528],[2025,-0.0009894058183767004]]; median -0.0039697590052976805. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 328000; owner earnings 69861601. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1438000; owner earnings 31505800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1466000; owner earnings 38249400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 357000; owner earnings 327692200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 800000; owner earnings 78100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1100000; owner earnings 86620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 600000; owner earnings 607980000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,4178000],[2017,59334000],[2018,85158000],[2019,151701000],[2020,105492000],[2021,273320000],[2022,388402000],[2023,580400000],[2024,580400000],[2025,580400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 68.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALX.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 68.089 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 20% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:23.259Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.27730999983383253. Price 3.79; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.11872254541137361 → FY2025 0.4178495244124932. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.30 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 4.28 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 4.60 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 4.57 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 4.46 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 4.66 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 4.86 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 5.33 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 5.11 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 5.07 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 5.48 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 5.62 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 5.28 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 5.32 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 5.92 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 6.12 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 5.92 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 6.02 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 6.33 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 6.42 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 6.16 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 5.76 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 6.12 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 6.55 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 6.64 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 6.51 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 7.21 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 7.53 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 7.82 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 7.18 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 7.39 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 7.15 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 7.32 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 7.60 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 7.49 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 5.84 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 6.22 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 6.19 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 6.17 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 6.07 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 5.27 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 6.07 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 5.92 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 5.19 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 5.64 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 5.75 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 5.95 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 5.86 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 6.41 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 6.47 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 6.08 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 6.07 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 6.12 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 6.50 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 6.72 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 7.53 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 7.24 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.48 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 6.23 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 6.59 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 7.03 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 6.61 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 6.86 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 6.84 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 6.29 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 6.54 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 6.21 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 6.08 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 5.53 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 5.31 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 5.80 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 5.78 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 5.42 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 5.33 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 5.19 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 5.32 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 5.11 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 5.24 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 4.89 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 4.88 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 5.07 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 5.06 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 4.85 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 5.31 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 5.16 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 5.33 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 4.91 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 4.86 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 4.98 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 4.88 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 4.97 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 4.28 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 4.80 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 4.93 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 5.03 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 4.59 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 3.95 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 3.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2021: low AUD 0.54 per share, central AUD 0.59 per share, high AUD 0.65 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 0.81 per share, central AUD 0.87 per share, high AUD 0.94 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 0.66 per share, central AUD 0.89 per share, high AUD 1.02 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 0.76 per share, central AUD 0.85 per share, high AUD 0.97 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 1.02 per share, central AUD 1.40 per share, high AUD 1.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:03.513Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Atlas Arteria

ALX · AU

S&P/ASX 200

Not a wonderful business

4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: AUD 3.79
Buy up to: AUD 1.42
Expected / yr: 5.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 290.5% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: -22.3%
Worst year: -6116.6%
Latest · 2025: -4.7%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median -0.4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: -0.4%
Worst year: -18.7%
Latest · 2025: -0.1%

Working capital rose 72.7% of sales (limit 10%) to 5.7% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.84×
Annual median: 0.26×
Latest · 2025: 2.34×

Per-share value fell from 0.43 to 0.22, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 10.9% over ten years and 7.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: AUD 0.20
Worst year: AUD -0.10
Latest · 2025: AUD 0.18

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.6% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 1.5%
Worst year: 20.5%
Latest · 2025: -4.6%

Profit record · fail 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin -629.7%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.18 AUD. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price AUD 4.30; 2016-11 · Price AUD 4.28; 2016-12 · Price AUD 4.60; 2017-01 · Price AUD 4.57; 2017-02 · Price AUD 4.46; 2017-03 · Price AUD 4.66; 2017-04 · Price AUD 4.86; 2017-05 · Price AUD 5.33; 2017-06 · Price AUD 5.11; 2017-07 · Price AUD 5.07; 2017-08 · Price AUD 5.17; 2017-09 · Price AUD 5.00; 2017-10 · Price AUD 5.48; 2017-11 · Price AUD 5.62; 2017-12 · Price AUD 5.79; 2018-01 · Price AUD 5.28; 2018-02 · Price AUD 5.10; 2018-03 · Price AUD 5.32; 2018-04 · Price AUD 5.92; 2018-05 · Price AUD 6.12; 2018-06 · Price AUD 5.92; 2018-07 · Price AUD 6.02; 2018-08 · Price AUD 6.33; 2018-09 · Price AUD 6.42; 2018-10 · Price AUD 6.28; 2018-11 · Price AUD 6.16; 2018-12 · Price AUD 5.76; 2019-01 · Price AUD 6.12; 2019-02 · Price AUD 6.55; 2019-03 · Price AUD 6.64; 2019-04 · Price AUD 6.44; 2019-05 · Price AUD 6.51; 2019-06 · Price AUD 7.21; 2019-07 · Price AUD 7.53; 2019-08 · Price AUD 7.82; 2019-09 · Price AUD 7.18; 2019-10 · Price AUD 7.39; 2019-11 · Price AUD 7.15; 2019-12 · Price AUD 7.32; 2020-01 · Price AUD 7.60; 2020-02 · Price AUD 7.49; 2020-03 · Price AUD 5.15; 2020-04 · Price AUD 5.84; 2020-05 · Price AUD 6.22; 2020-06 · Price AUD 6.19; 2020-07 · Price AUD 6.17; 2020-08 · Price AUD 6.07; 2020-09 · Price AUD 5.67; 2020-10 · Price AUD 5.27; 2020-11 · Price AUD 6.06; 2020-12 · Price AUD 6.07; 2021-01 · Price AUD 5.92 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-02 · Price AUD 5.19 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-03 · Price AUD 5.56 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-04 · Price AUD 5.64 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-05 · Price AUD 5.75 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-06 · Price AUD 5.95 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-07 · Price AUD 5.86 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-08 · Price AUD 6.41 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-09 · Price AUD 6.06 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-10 · Price AUD 5.79 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-11 · Price AUD 6.06 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2021-12 · Price AUD 6.47 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2022-01 · Price AUD 6.08 · Value 0.59 · Buy at or below 0.59; 2022-02 · Price AUD 6.07 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-03 · Price AUD 6.12 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-04 · Price AUD 6.50 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-05 · Price AUD 6.72 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-06 · Price AUD 7.53 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-07 · Price AUD 7.24 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-08 · Price AUD 7.48 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-09 · Price AUD 6.23 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-10 · Price AUD 6.59 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-11 · Price AUD 7.03 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2022-12 · Price AUD 6.61 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2023-01 · Price AUD 6.86 · Value 0.87 · Buy at or below 0.87; 2023-02 · Price AUD 6.84 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-03 · Price AUD 6.29 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-04 · Price AUD 6.54 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-05 · Price AUD 6.40 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-06 · Price AUD 6.21 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-07 · Price AUD 6.28 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-08 · Price AUD 6.08 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-09 · Price AUD 5.53 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-10 · Price AUD 5.31 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-11 · Price AUD 5.80 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2023-12 · Price AUD 5.78 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2024-01 · Price AUD 5.42 · Value 0.89 · Buy at or below 0.89; 2024-02 · Price AUD 5.40 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-03 · Price AUD 5.33 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-04 · Price AUD 5.19 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-05 · Price AUD 5.32 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-06 · Price AUD 5.11 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-07 · Price AUD 5.24 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-08 · Price AUD 5.10 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-09 · Price AUD 4.89 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-10 · Price AUD 4.88 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-11 · Price AUD 4.80 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2024-12 · Price AUD 4.75 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2025-01 · Price AUD 5.07 · Value 0.85 · Buy at or below 0.85; 2025-02 · Price AUD 5.06 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-03 · Price AUD 4.85 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-04 · Price AUD 5.17 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-05 · Price AUD 5.31 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-06 · Price AUD 5.09 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-07 · Price AUD 5.16 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-08 · Price AUD 5.33 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-09 · Price AUD 4.91 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-10 · Price AUD 4.86 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-11 · Price AUD 4.98 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2025-12 · Price AUD 4.88 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2026-01 · Price AUD 4.97 · Value 1.40 · Buy at or below 1.40; 2026-02 · Price AUD 4.80 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-03 · Price AUD 4.28 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-04 · Price AUD 4.80 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-05 · Price AUD 4.93 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-06 · Price AUD 5.10 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-07 · Price AUD 5.03 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-08 · Price AUD 4.59 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-09 · Price AUD 3.95 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-10 · Price AUD 3.88 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42; 2026-10 · Price AUD 3.79 · Value 1.42 · Buy at or below 1.42

AUD per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	AUD 1.04 – AUD 1.65
Buy at or below	Central value AUD 1.42
Discount to value	1 − 3.79 / 1.42 = -166.5%
Return / year	About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash AUD 0.07/share; 8.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash AUD 0.15/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueAUD 160M

Revenue

Owner earningsAUD 608M

Owner earnings

Operating margin-4.7%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtAUD -1.5B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.5B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025