Margins varied 11.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 28.9%
- Worst year
- 22.9%
- Latest · LTM
- 30.5%
# Applied Materials (AMAT.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AMAT Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:26.514Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $430.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $136.05 per share, central $189.73 per share, high $220.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value $189.73 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:26.514Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.12× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.27× - FY2018: 0.27× - FY2019: 0.23× - FY2020: 0.25× - FY2021: 0.30× - FY2022: 0.30× - FY2023: 0.29× - FY2024: 0.29× - FY2025: 0.29× - LTM to Jul 2026: 0.31× ### moat: pass - ROIC, median of available years: 55.5% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 42.6% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.7 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.8% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.5% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 3.0% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 34.6% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 56.2% - FY2018: 47.9% - FY2019: 42.6% - FY2020: 55.1% - FY2021: 67.8% - FY2022: 57.0% - FY2023: 57.9% - FY2024: 55.8% - FY2025: 41.2% - LTM to Jul 2026: 40.9% ### economics: fail - working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $30B - Net income, five-year total: $33B - Return on incremental invested capital: 46.7% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 34.5% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.00× - FY2022: 0.99× - FY2023: 0.92× - FY2024: 0.90× - FY2025: 0.76× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 52.9% vs 55.8% - Per-share earnings: 1.54 to 8.61 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.1% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.6% - Market cap gain: $154B - Cumulative retained earnings: $40B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.1% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.6% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 24.0% - Per-share value change: $7.06 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.54 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.61 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20 - Average buyback yield: 4.9% - Buyback history: 10 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: $520M - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $48B - ROIC, first three-year median: 52.9% - ROIC, last three-year median: 55.8% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $1.54 - FY2017: $3.25 - FY2018: $2.96 - FY2019: $2.86 - FY2020: $3.92 - FY2021: $6.41 - FY2022: $7.44 - FY2023: $8.11 - FY2024: $8.61 - FY2025: $8.66 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -2.6% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95× - Restructuring years, last five: 2 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.2% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.14× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -5.1% - FY2017: -0.5% - FY2018: -4.2% - FY2019: -2.8% - FY2020: -0.8% - FY2021: 1.7% - FY2022: 4.2% - FY2023: -6.0% - FY2024: -4.4% - FY2025: -2.6% ## Holders - [Gavin Abrams](https://gigainvestors.com/ABI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Down 41% since Jun 2026 · "Applied Materials flags $600 million revenue hit in 2026 on broader chip export curbs" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +4.4% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:17.374Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 17.4% a year for ten years - 2025-06-12: AMAT Expects Advanced DRAM Sales to Grow 40%: Can It Keep its Lead? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amat-expects-advanced-dram-sales-142300593.html)) - 2025-10-02: Applied Materials flags $600 million revenue hit in 2026 on broader chip export curbs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-materials-flags-600-million-224151556.html)) - 2026-01-28: AMAT stock: Mizuho sees ‘significant acceleration’ in WFE, upgrades rating ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amat-stock-mizuho-sees-significant-133218199.html)) - 2026-02-13: Applied Materials Jumps 15% After $7.65 Billion Revenue Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-materials-jumps-15-7-193738403.html)) - 2026-05-15: Applied Materials Q2 2026 earnings beat on AI demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/applied-materials-q2-2026-earnings-143615849.html)) - 2026-06-17: AI Demand, Earnings Send Applied Materials to New Highs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-demand-earnings-send-applied-124947473.html)) ### Sales · FY2024–2025 sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm; observed 2025-12-12. - FY2016: $11B - FY2017: $15B - FY2018: $17B - FY2019: $15B - FY2020: $17B - FY2021: $23B - FY2022: $26B - FY2023: $27B - FY2024: $27B - FY2025: $28B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 48.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm; observed 2025-12-12. - FY2016: 41.7% - FY2017: 45.0% - FY2018: 45.0% - FY2019: 43.7% - FY2020: 44.7% - FY2021: 47.3% - FY2022: 46.5% - FY2023: 46.7% - FY2024: 47.5% - FY2025: 48.7% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in semiconductor equipment & materials; annual sales are USD 28.4 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: revenue 28368000000; grossProfit 13808000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMAT.US: Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 46.7% to 48.7% during 2023–25; it earns 55.5% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5291449695472383],[2017,0.561953921250734],[2018,0.47932862799104836],[2019,0.4259677207900498],[2020,0.5506638250618502],[2021,0.6781312798823386],[2022,0.5695186340509667],[2023,0.5789486946646824],[2024,0.5584202795439421],[2025,0.4120355616934165]]; median 0.5545420523028961. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Kept about a 47% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4732255127260114],[2022,0.465115377157262],[2023,0.4670211562393936]]; range within 2 percentage points. ### Where the cash goes Spends 2.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 46.7% on new investment. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 253000000; owner earnings 1857000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 345000000; owner earnings 3581000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2018: growth capex 165000000; upkeep 457000000; owner earnings 3038000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.054312047399605004. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 441000000; owner earnings 2628000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2020: growth capex 46000000; upkeep 376000000; owner earnings 3619000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012710693561757391. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2021: growth capex 274000000; upkeep 394000000; owner earnings 5888000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04653532608695652. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2022: growth capex 256169651.63269472; upkeep 530830348.3673053; owner earnings 6438169651.632694. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03978920492841177. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2023: growth capex 74231070.70806026; upkeep 1031768929.2919397; owner earnings 6339231070.70806. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011709790963617458. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); FY2024: growth capex 71045322.03232622; upkeep 1118954677.9676738; owner earnings 6450045322.032326. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011014701212973921. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: growth capex 149296496.4676504; upkeep 2110703503.5323496; owner earnings 5322296496.46765. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028051142315490475. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); Incremental return on capital 0.4668124442680356, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,444000000],[2017,430000000],[2018,605000000],[2019,771000000],[2020,787000000],[2021,838000000],[2022,873000000],[2023,975000000],[2024,1192000000],[2025,1384000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 4895000000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.3% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMAT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.328 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it "We are exposed to risks associated with a highly concentrated customer base." (SEC filing, Dec 2025) - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-12); We are exposed to risks associated with a highly concentrated customer base. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 17.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.1%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2389098394270538. Price 430.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2504078303425774 → FY2025 6.587000614440162. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $29.08 per share - 2016-11: $32.20 per share - 2016-12: $32.27 per share - 2017-01: $34.25 per share - 2017-02: $36.22 per share - 2017-03: $38.90 per share - 2017-04: $40.61 per share - 2017-05: $45.88 per share - 2017-06: $41.31 per share - 2017-07: $44.31 per share - 2017-08: $45.12 per share - 2017-09: $52.09 per share - 2017-10: $56.43 per share - 2017-11: $52.77 per share - 2017-12: $51.12 per share - 2018-01: $53.63 per share - 2018-02: $57.59 per share - 2018-03: $55.61 per share - 2018-04: $49.67 per share - 2018-05: $50.78 per share - 2018-06: $46.19 per share - 2018-07: $48.63 per share - 2018-08: $43.02 per share - 2018-09: $38.65 per share - 2018-10: $32.88 per share - 2018-11: $37.28 per share - 2018-12: $32.74 per share - 2019-01: $39.08 per share - 2019-02: $38.34 per share - 2019-03: $39.66 per share - 2019-04: $44.07 per share - 2019-05: $38.69 per share - 2019-06: $44.91 per share - 2019-07: $49.37 per share - 2019-08: $48.02 per share - 2019-09: $49.90 per share - 2019-10: $54.26 per share - 2019-11: $57.90 per share - 2019-12: $61.04 per share - 2020-01: $57.99 per share - 2020-02: $58.12 per share - 2020-03: $45.82 per share - 2020-04: $49.68 per share - 2020-05: $56.18 per share - 2020-06: $60.45 per share - 2020-07: $64.33 per share - 2020-08: $61.60 per share - 2020-09: $59.45 per share - 2020-10: $59.23 per share - 2020-11: $82.48 per share - 2020-12: $86.30 per share - 2021-01: $96.68 per share - 2021-02: $118.19 per share - 2021-03: $133.60 per share - 2021-04: $132.71 per share - 2021-05: $138.13 per share - 2021-06: $142.40 per share - 2021-07: $139.93 per share - 2021-08: $135.13 per share - 2021-09: $128.73 per share - 2021-10: $136.65 per share - 2021-11: $147.19 per share - 2021-12: $157.36 per share - 2022-01: $138.18 per share - 2022-02: $134.20 per share - 2022-03: $131.80 per share - 2022-04: $110.35 per share - 2022-05: $117.29 per share - 2022-06: $90.98 per share - 2022-07: $105.98 per share - 2022-08: $94.07 per share - 2022-09: $81.93 per share - 2022-10: $88.29 per share - 2022-11: $109.60 per share - 2022-12: $97.38 per share - 2023-01: $111.49 per share - 2023-02: $116.15 per share - 2023-03: $122.83 per share - 2023-04: $113.03 per share - 2023-05: $133.30 per share - 2023-06: $144.54 per share - 2023-07: $151.59 per share - 2023-08: $152.76 per share - 2023-09: $138.45 per share - 2023-10: $132.35 per share - 2023-11: $149.78 per share - 2023-12: $162.07 per share - 2024-01: $164.30 per share - 2024-02: $201.62 per share - 2024-03: $206.23 per share - 2024-04: $198.65 per share - 2024-05: $215.08 per share - 2024-06: $235.99 per share - 2024-07: $212.20 per share - 2024-08: $197.26 per share - 2024-09: $202.05 per share - 2024-10: $181.58 per share - 2024-11: $174.71 per share - 2024-12: $162.63 per share - 2025-01: $180.35 per share - 2025-02: $158.07 per share - 2025-03: $145.12 per share - 2025-04: $150.71 per share - 2025-05: $156.75 per share - 2025-06: $183.07 per share - 2025-07: $180.06 per share - 2025-08: $160.76 per share - 2025-09: $204.74 per share - 2025-10: $233.10 per share - 2025-11: $252.25 per share - 2025-12: $256.99 per share - 2026-01: $322.32 per share - 2026-02: $372.30 per share - 2026-03: $341.79 per share - 2026-04: $394.49 per share - 2026-05: $450.06 per share - 2026-06: $723.00 per share - 2026-07: $507.67 per share - 2026-08: $458.39 per share - 2026-09: $511.38 per share - 2026-10: $464.24 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $18.35 per share, central $21.84 per share, high $24.95 per share - FY2017: low $29.96 per share, central $33.21 per share, high $37.52 per share - FY2018: low $34.13 per share, central $38.34 per share, high $43.94 per share - FY2019: low $41.33 per share, central $57.53 per share, high $66.96 per share - FY2020: low $51.87 per share, central $71.51 per share, high $82.98 per share - FY2021: low $77.22 per share, central $107.97 per share, high $125.89 per share - FY2022: low $86.45 per share, central $122.48 per share, high $143.47 per share - FY2023: low $109.49 per share, central $153.20 per share, high $178.65 per share - FY2024: low $116.61 per share, central $161.99 per share, high $188.42 per share - FY2025: low $124.01 per share, central $172.91 per share, high $201.38 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:02.470Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm); period 2025-10-26, filed 2025-12-12. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
AMAT · US
S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 11.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 55.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 42.6% (minimum 10%).
Working capital rose 10.2% of sales (limit 10%) to 34.5% (waived at zero or below).
Per-share value rose from 1.54 to 8.61, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.6% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 26.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 7.27 USD.
| Value range | $136.05 – $220.99 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $189.73 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 430.01 / 189.73 = -126.6% |
| Return / year | About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 9.21/share; 8.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 10.77/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |