# Amcor (AMCR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AMCR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T19:03:50.797Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $43.74 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $21.19 per share, central $23.92 per share, high $27.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value $23.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T19:03:50.797Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 25.2%

- FY2018: 33.8%

- FY2019: 9.5%

- FY2020: 14.7%

- FY2021: 19.7%

- FY2022: 18.1%

- FY2023: 24.6%

- FY2024: 19.4%

- FY2025: 5.5%

- FY2026: 11.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 50.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.13×

- FY2026: 1.43×

### management: pass

- $1 retained earnings test: 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 25.2% vs 11.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Market cap gain: $5.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $173M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 8.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -0.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 25.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.9%

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.68×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.94×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.58×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.8%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -2.0%

- FY2020: -4.7%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: -1.3%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: -2.4%

- FY2026: -2.8%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 36% since May 2022 · "Amcor Faces 'Challenged' Packaging Sector, Lower Synergies From Berry Acquisition, RBC Says" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +56.6%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-14: Amcor misses top-line and bottom-line estimates; initiates FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4485173-amcor-misses-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-initiates-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-09-23: Amcor Faces 'Challenged' Packaging Sector, Lower Synergies From Berry Acquisition, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amcor-faces-apos-challenged-apos-150432192.html))

- 2025-11-06: Amcor outlines at least $260M synergy benefit for FY26 as integration momentum builds ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4516907-amcor-outlines-at-least-260m-synergy-benefit-for-fy26-as-integration-momentum-builds?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-05: AMCR Q2 Earnings Top Estimates, Sales Miss as Volume Decline Continues ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amcr-q2-earnings-top-estimates-170600750.html))

- 2026-05-06: Amcor (AMCR) rises after revenue beat and higher full-year guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amcor-amcr-rises-revenue-beat-124727536.html))

- 2026-08-12: Amcor Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Berry Global Acquisition ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amcor-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-131200236.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +56.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-14.

- FY2017: $9.1B 

- FY2018: $9.3B 

- FY2019: $9.5B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $15B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $14B 

- FY2025: $15B 

- FY2026: $24B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 20%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-14.

- FY2017: 21.0% 

- FY2018: 19.9% 

- FY2019: 19.0% 

- FY2020: 20.3% 

- FY2021: 21.2% 

- FY2022: 19.4% 

- FY2023: 18.5% 

- FY2024: 19.9% 

- FY2025: 18.9% 

- FY2026: 20.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 23.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-14); FY2026: revenue 23506000000; grossProfit 4690000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); AMCR.US: Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and produces packaging solutions for nutrition, health, beauty, and wellness categories in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Its products include apparel, applicators, bags and bulk bags, bottles and vials, building materials, canisters and jerrycans, drinking cups, films and laminates, jars, lids, tapes and adhesives, trays, tubes, wipes packaging solutions, and miscellaneous and accessories, as well as tubs and pots. The company's Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment develops and supplies flexible packaging; and supplies polymer resin, aluminum, and fiber based flexible packaging solutions. Its Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment manufactures rigid packaging containers, closures, dispensing and pharma delivery devices, and related products. The company sells its products through its direct sales force. Amcor plc was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.9% to 20% during 2024–26; it earns 18.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-14); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.25197547802802206],[2018,0.3384155894138863],[2019,0.09513041617555175],[2020,0.14656294488509256],[2021,0.196720672342381],[2022,0.18094640785223745],[2023,0.24620674117076996],[2024,0.1939295042668244],[2025,0.054632574423458036],[2026,0.1192169923639051]]; median 0.18743795605953092. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 71 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 378830509.94; owner earnings 549887490.06. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2018: growth capex 12730413.620000005; upkeep 357100000; owner earnings 698584000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018223168037057827.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 332200000; owner earnings 532400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 400000000; owner earnings 830000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 468000000; owner earnings 987000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 527000000; owner earnings 840000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 526000000; owner earnings 1054000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 492000000; owner earnings 801000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 580000000; owner earnings 579000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-14); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 922000000; owner earnings 1580000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); Dividend observations: [[2017,488623424.08],[2018,523586836.59],[2019,679700000],[2020,761000000],[2021,742000000],[2022,732000000],[2023,723000000],[2024,722000000],[2025,845000000],[2026,1195000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-14); FY2026: cash repurchases 71000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); AMCR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.265 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Key Customers and Customer Consolidation" (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-14); Key Customers and Customer Consolidation

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-14); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10532408225905698. Price 41.81; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $58.55 per share

- 2016-11: $58.55 per share

- 2016-12: $53.15 per share

- 2017-01: $53.15 per share

- 2017-02: $53.15 per share

- 2017-03: $57.75 per share

- 2017-04: $58.00 per share

- 2017-05: $55.00 per share

- 2017-06: $62.15 per share

- 2017-07: $61.50 per share

- 2017-08: $63.85 per share

- 2017-09: $60.25 per share

- 2017-10: $60.25 per share

- 2017-11: $56.50 per share

- 2017-12: $59.00 per share

- 2018-01: $58.75 per share

- 2018-02: $55.55 per share

- 2018-03: $53.75 per share

- 2018-04: $54.25 per share

- 2018-05: $52.10 per share

- 2018-06: $52.50 per share

- 2018-07: $55.50 per share

- 2018-08: $51.65 per share

- 2018-09: $49.75 per share

- 2018-10: $45.00 per share

- 2018-11: $49.30 per share

- 2018-12: $46.50 per share

- 2019-01: $48.45 per share

- 2019-02: $53.50 per share

- 2019-03: $53.75 per share

- 2019-04: $55.00 per share

- 2019-05: $55.75 per share

- 2019-06: $57.45 per share

- 2019-07: $53.00 per share

- 2019-08: $49.10 per share

- 2019-09: $48.75 per share

- 2019-10: $47.60 per share

- 2019-11: $51.30 per share

- 2019-12: $54.20 per share

- 2020-01: $52.95 per share

- 2020-02: $46.60 per share

- 2020-03: $40.60 per share

- 2020-04: $44.85 per share

- 2020-05: $51.05 per share

- 2020-06: $51.05 per share

- 2020-07: $51.50 per share

- 2020-08: $55.30 per share

- 2020-09: $55.25 per share

- 2020-10: $52.15 per share

- 2020-11: $56.65 per share

- 2020-12: $58.85 per share

- 2021-01: $54.70 per share

- 2021-02: $54.70 per share

- 2021-03: $58.40 per share

- 2021-04: $58.75 per share

- 2021-05: $59.00 per share

- 2021-06: $57.30 per share

- 2021-07: $57.80 per share

- 2021-08: $64.25 per share

- 2021-09: $57.95 per share

- 2021-10: $60.35 per share

- 2021-11: $56.60 per share

- 2021-12: $60.05 per share

- 2022-01: $60.05 per share

- 2022-02: $58.15 per share

- 2022-03: $56.65 per share

- 2022-04: $59.30 per share

- 2022-05: $65.50 per share

- 2022-06: $62.15 per share

- 2022-07: $64.75 per share

- 2022-08: $60.05 per share

- 2022-09: $53.65 per share

- 2022-10: $57.90 per share

- 2022-11: $61.75 per share

- 2022-12: $59.55 per share

- 2023-01: $60.30 per share

- 2023-02: $55.70 per share

- 2023-03: $56.90 per share

- 2023-04: $54.85 per share

- 2023-05: $48.20 per share

- 2023-06: $49.90 per share

- 2023-07: $51.30 per share

- 2023-08: $48.70 per share

- 2023-09: $45.80 per share

- 2023-10: $44.45 per share

- 2023-11: $47.40 per share

- 2023-12: $48.20 per share

- 2024-01: $47.15 per share

- 2024-02: $45.30 per share

- 2024-03: $47.55 per share

- 2024-04: $44.70 per share

- 2024-05: $50.85 per share

- 2024-06: $48.90 per share

- 2024-07: $52.65 per share

- 2024-08: $57.20 per share

- 2024-09: $56.65 per share

- 2024-10: $55.65 per share

- 2024-11: $53.20 per share

- 2024-12: $47.05 per share

- 2025-01: $48.60 per share

- 2025-02: $50.60 per share

- 2025-03: $48.50 per share

- 2025-04: $46.00 per share

- 2025-05: $45.55 per share

- 2025-06: $45.95 per share

- 2025-07: $46.75 per share

- 2025-08: $43.15 per share

- 2025-09: $40.90 per share

- 2025-10: $39.50 per share

- 2025-11: $42.60 per share

- 2025-12: $41.70 per share

- 2026-01: $44.25 per share

- 2026-02: $48.43 per share

- 2026-03: $39.75 per share

- 2026-04: $38.04 per share

- 2026-05: $38.82 per share

- 2026-06: $43.35 per share

- 2026-07: $44.88 per share

- 2026-08: $45.89 per share

- 2026-09: $41.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $21.37 per share, central $24.05 per share, high $27.63 per share

- FY2022: low $31.52 per share, central $35.64 per share, high $41.14 per share

- FY2023: low $32.44 per share, central $36.73 per share, high $42.44 per share

- FY2024: low $31.48 per share, central $35.67 per share, high $41.25 per share

- FY2025: low $21.52 per share, central $24.26 per share, high $27.90 per share

- FY2026: low $21.19 per share, central $23.92 per share, high $27.55 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.