# Amgen (AMGN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AMGN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:28.223Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $434.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $274.02 per share, central $308.43 per share, high $354.23 per share. Buy at or below the central value $308.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:28.223Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.43×

- FY2017: 0.44×

- FY2018: 0.43×

- FY2019: 0.41×

- FY2020: 0.36×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.36×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 47.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 75.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 70.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 26.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 71.0%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 52.0%

- FY2020: 47.8%

- FY2021: 39.3%

- FY2022: 48.0%

- FY2023: 16.4%

- FY2024: 18.2%

- FY2025: 25.9%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.51×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $47B

- Net income, five-year total: $31B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 21.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 43.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.43×

- FY2022: 1.38×

- FY2023: 1.44×

- FY2024: 2.10×

- FY2025: 1.43×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 156.4% vs 18.2%

- Per-share earnings: 9.06 to 12.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $68B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$25B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.1%

- Per-share value change: $3.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $9.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 4.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $33B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $64B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $10.24

- FY2017: $2.69

- FY2018: $12.62

- FY2019: $12.88

- FY2020: $12.31

- FY2021: $10.28

- FY2022: $12.11

- FY2023: $12.49

- FY2024: $7.56

- FY2025: $14.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 4.73×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.4%

- FY2017: -11.5%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -5.5%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -8.1%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.5% a year for ten years · sales +9.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:17.746Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-04: Amgen Raises Full-Year Outlook After Third-Quarter Profit, Sales Jump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7a104fc0-c796-366b-8cbc-9d68e89429ec/amgen-raises-full-year.html))

- 2026-02-04: Amgen outlines $37B–$38.4B 2026 revenue target as Repatha, EVENITY, and TEZSPIRE drive momentum ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4546762-amgen-outlines-37b-38_4b-2026-revenue-target-as-repatha-evenity-and-tezspire-drive-momentum?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-30: Teva gains approval of biosimilar of Amgen's Prolia ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570251-teva-gains-approval-of-biosimilar-of-amgens-prolia?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-06-30: Amgen (AMGN) Faces EU Push To Revoke Tavneos Approval ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/amgen-amgn-faces-eu-push-200710549.html))

- 2026-07-30: Amgen (AMGN) Wins Backing In Europe For Broader Repatha Use ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/amgen-amgn-wins-backing-europe-042820027.html))

- 2026-08-05: Amgen Q2 Net Income Improves; Repatha Sales Jump 37% ; Lifts 2026 Earnings Guidance ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/amgen-q2-net-income-improves-repatha-sales-jump-37-lifts-2026-earnings-guidance))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $23B 

- FY2017: $23B 

- FY2018: $24B 

- FY2019: $23B 

- FY2020: $25B 

- FY2021: $26B 

- FY2022: $26B 

- FY2023: $28B 

- FY2024: $33B 

- FY2025: $37B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 70.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 81.9% 

- FY2017: 82.2% 

- FY2018: 82.7% 

- FY2019: 81.4% 

- FY2020: 75.8% 

- FY2021: 75.2% 

- FY2022: 75.7% 

- FY2023: 70.0% 

- FY2024: 61.5% 

- FY2025: 70.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are USD 36.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 36741000000; grossProfit 26012000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMGN.US: Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINCYTO, NPLATE, TEZSPIRE, KYPROLIS, ARANESP, KRYSTEXXA AND VECTIBIX, MVASI, PAVBLU, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TAVNEOS, NEULASTA, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, RAVICTI, PARSABIV, AIMOVIG, WEZLANA/WEZENLA, AND PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; BEONE MEDICINES LTD. to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is he

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.5% to 70.8% during 2023–25; it earns 47.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 70%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 70.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.7100014715563644],[2017,1.56429777992278],[2018,3.720288026906004],[2019,0.5201091100885286],[2020,0.47848703129223363],[2021,0.3932734387696129],[2022,0.4800837838319779],[2023,0.16361977159430058],[2024,0.18211579799189329],[2025,0.25869225923523165]]; median 0.4792854075621058. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

The increase in global XGEVA sales for 2024 was driven by higher net selling price.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); XGEVA Total XGEVA sales by geographic region were as follows (dollar amounts in millions): Year ended December 31, 2025 Change Year ended December 31, 2024 Change Year ended December 31, 2023 XGEVA — U.S. $ 1,355 (10) % $ 1,507 (1) % $ 1,527 XGEVA — ROW 729 2 % 718 23 % 585 Total XGEVA $ 2,084 (6) % $ 2,225 5 % $ 2,112 The decrease in global XGEVA sales for 2025 was driven by lower volume. The increase in global XGEVA sales for 2024 was driven by higher net selling price. As disclosed in Part I, Item 1.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 837000000; owner earnings 8990000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 664000000; owner earnings 3270000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 738000000; owner earnings 9602000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 618000000; owner earnings 9430000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 608000000; owner earnings 10257000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 880000000; owner earnings 8411000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 936000000; owner earnings 9033000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1112000000; owner earnings 9676000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1096000000; owner earnings 8586000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1858000000; owner earnings 11020000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,2998000000],[2017,3365000000],[2018,3507000000],[2019,3509000000],[2020,3755000000],[2021,4013000000],[2022,4196000000],[2023,4556000000],[2024,4832000000],[2025,5124000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMGN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22799999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

An IRS tax dispute could require additional payments.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13);  materially and adversely affect our business, operations, liquidity and stock price.

SUMMARY

Risks Related to Government Regulations and Third-Party Policies

•Our sales depend on coverage and reimbursement from government and commercial third-party payers, and pricing and reimbursement pressures have affected, and are likely to continue to affect, our profitability.

•Guidelines and recommendations published by various organizations can reduce the use of our products.

•We could be subject to additional tax liabilities, including from an adverse outcome in our ongoing tax dispute with the IRS and other tax examinations, enactment of the OECD minimum corporate tax rate agreement and the adoption and interpretation of new tax legislation, including OB3. Such tax liabilities could adversely affect our profitability and results of operations.

•Our business may be affected by litigation and government investigations.

Risks Related to Economic Conditions and Operating a Global Business

•Our efforts to collaborate with or acquire other companies, products, or technology, and to integrate the operations of companies or to support the products or technology we have acquired, may not be successful, and may result in unanticipated costs, delays or failures to realize the benefits of the transactions.

•A breakdown of our information technology systems, cyberattack or information security breach could significantly compromise the confidentiality, integrity and availability of our information technology systems, network-connected control systems and/or our data, interrupt the operation of our business and/or affect our reputation.

•Our sales and operations are subject to the risks of doing business internationally, including in new or emerging markets.

•We may not be able to access the capital and credit markets on terms that are favorable to us, or at all.

Risks Related to Competition

•Our products face substantial competition and our product candidates are also likely to face substantial competition.

•Our intellectual property positions may be challenged, invalidated or circumvented, or we may fail to prevail in current and future intellectual property litigation.

•We currently face competition from biosimilars and generics and expect to face increasing competition from biosimilars and generics in the future.

•Concentration of sales at certain of our wholesaler distributors, and consolidation of private payers, such as insurers, and PBMs has negatively affected, and may continue to negatively affect, our business.

Risks Related to Research and Development

•We may not be able to develop commercial products despite significant investments in R&D.

•We must conduct clinical trials in humans before we commercialize and sell any of our product candidates or existing products for new indications.

•Our current products and products in development ca

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06562703948003235. Price 434.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 10.963446475195822 → FY2025 20.33210332103321. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $141.16 per share

- 2016-11: $144.07 per share

- 2016-12: $146.21 per share

- 2017-01: $156.68 per share

- 2017-02: $176.53 per share

- 2017-03: $164.07 per share

- 2017-04: $163.32 per share

- 2017-05: $155.24 per share

- 2017-06: $172.23 per share

- 2017-07: $174.51 per share

- 2017-08: $177.77 per share

- 2017-09: $186.45 per share

- 2017-10: $175.22 per share

- 2017-11: $175.66 per share

- 2017-12: $173.90 per share

- 2018-01: $186.05 per share

- 2018-02: $183.77 per share

- 2018-03: $170.48 per share

- 2018-04: $174.48 per share

- 2018-05: $179.62 per share

- 2018-06: $184.59 per share

- 2018-07: $196.55 per share

- 2018-08: $199.81 per share

- 2018-09: $207.29 per share

- 2018-10: $192.79 per share

- 2018-11: $208.25 per share

- 2018-12: $194.67 per share

- 2019-01: $187.11 per share

- 2019-02: $190.08 per share

- 2019-03: $189.98 per share

- 2019-04: $179.32 per share

- 2019-05: $166.70 per share

- 2019-06: $184.28 per share

- 2019-07: $186.58 per share

- 2019-08: $208.62 per share

- 2019-09: $193.51 per share

- 2019-10: $213.25 per share

- 2019-11: $234.72 per share

- 2019-12: $241.07 per share

- 2020-01: $216.05 per share

- 2020-02: $199.73 per share

- 2020-03: $202.73 per share

- 2020-04: $239.22 per share

- 2020-05: $229.70 per share

- 2020-06: $235.86 per share

- 2020-07: $244.67 per share

- 2020-08: $253.32 per share

- 2020-09: $254.16 per share

- 2020-10: $216.94 per share

- 2020-11: $222.04 per share

- 2020-12: $229.92 per share

- 2021-01: $241.43 per share

- 2021-02: $224.92 per share

- 2021-03: $248.81 per share

- 2021-04: $239.64 per share

- 2021-05: $237.94 per share

- 2021-06: $243.75 per share

- 2021-07: $241.54 per share

- 2021-08: $225.53 per share

- 2021-09: $212.65 per share

- 2021-10: $206.97 per share

- 2021-11: $198.88 per share

- 2021-12: $224.97 per share

- 2022-01: $227.14 per share

- 2022-02: $226.48 per share

- 2022-03: $241.82 per share

- 2022-04: $233.19 per share

- 2022-05: $256.74 per share

- 2022-06: $243.30 per share

- 2022-07: $247.47 per share

- 2022-08: $240.30 per share

- 2022-09: $225.40 per share

- 2022-10: $270.35 per share

- 2022-11: $286.40 per share

- 2022-12: $262.64 per share

- 2023-01: $252.40 per share

- 2023-02: $231.66 per share

- 2023-03: $241.75 per share

- 2023-04: $239.74 per share

- 2023-05: $220.65 per share

- 2023-06: $222.02 per share

- 2023-07: $234.15 per share

- 2023-08: $256.34 per share

- 2023-09: $268.76 per share

- 2023-10: $255.70 per share

- 2023-11: $269.64 per share

- 2023-12: $288.02 per share

- 2024-01: $314.26 per share

- 2024-02: $273.83 per share

- 2024-03: $284.32 per share

- 2024-04: $273.94 per share

- 2024-05: $305.85 per share

- 2024-06: $312.45 per share

- 2024-07: $332.47 per share

- 2024-08: $333.83 per share

- 2024-09: $322.21 per share

- 2024-10: $320.16 per share

- 2024-11: $282.87 per share

- 2024-12: $260.64 per share

- 2025-01: $285.42 per share

- 2025-02: $308.06 per share

- 2025-03: $311.55 per share

- 2025-04: $290.92 per share

- 2025-05: $288.18 per share

- 2025-06: $279.21 per share

- 2025-07: $295.10 per share

- 2025-08: $287.71 per share

- 2025-09: $282.20 per share

- 2025-10: $298.43 per share

- 2025-11: $345.46 per share

- 2025-12: $327.31 per share

- 2026-01: $341.88 per share

- 2026-02: $388.16 per share

- 2026-03: $351.85 per share

- 2026-04: $346.25 per share

- 2026-05: $336.79 per share

- 2026-06: $362.12 per share

- 2026-07: $385.16 per share

- 2026-08: $429.88 per share

- 2026-09: $421.51 per share

- 2026-10: $412.84 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $187.76 per share, central $251.01 per share, high $286.29 per share

- FY2017: low $196.64 per share, central $261.12 per share, high $297.08 per share

- FY2018: low $244.38 per share, central $336.60 per share, high $388.04 per share

- FY2019: low $230.06 per share, central $326.93 per share, high $381.73 per share

- FY2020: low $207.20 per share, central $233.40 per share, high $268.28 per share

- FY2021: low $213.05 per share, central $240.61 per share, high $277.31 per share

- FY2022: low $230.78 per share, central $260.37 per share, high $299.75 per share

- FY2023: low $215.88 per share, central $242.98 per share, high $279.06 per share

- FY2024: low $252.63 per share, central $284.58 per share, high $327.11 per share

- FY2025: low $255.37 per share, central $288.45 per share, high $332.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000031815426000010/amgn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.