# Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AMR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:29.583Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $169.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $282.58 per share, central $318.31 per share, high $365.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $318.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:29.583Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.5% at the stated quote. About 17.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.80×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: -0.08×

- FY2020: -0.12×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -15.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 0.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.5%

- FY2017: 56.1%

- FY2018: 14.6%

- FY2019: -11.8%

- FY2020: -21.0%

- FY2021: 38.8%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: 56.5%

- FY2024: 17.4%

- FY2025: -4.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 602.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.14×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: -0.21×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.6% vs 17.4%

- Per-share earnings: -7.59 to 14.28 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -8.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.6%

- Market cap gain: $1.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -8.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $21.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$7.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $14.28

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.23

- Average buyback yield: 8.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $307M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$7.59

- FY2017: $14.35

- FY2018: $25.54

- FY2019: -$16.82

- FY2020: -$24.42

- FY2021: $15.30

- FY2022: $79.49

- FY2023: $49.30

- FY2024: $14.28

- FY2025: -$4.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -23.1%

- FY2017: -18.1%

- FY2018: 5.1%

- FY2019: -19.5%

- FY2020: -34.3%

- FY2021: 6.1%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -16.1%

- FY2025: -9.1%

## Holders

- [Mohnish Pabrai](https://gigainvestors.com/PI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 57% since Jan 2024 · "The update also included lowered shipment guidance for the remainder of the year." (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales -3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.151Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-24: Alpha expects to report Q1 loss of $11M ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579324-alpha-expects-to-report-q1-loss-of-11m?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $1.6B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $2.0B 

- FY2020: $1.4B 

- FY2021: $2.3B 

- FY2022: $4.1B 

- FY2023: $3.5B 

- FY2024: $3.0B 

- FY2025: $2.1B 

- FY2026: $2.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 0.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: 13.2% 

- FY2018: 14.7% 

- FY2019: 6.0% 

- FY2021: 20.3% 

- FY2022: 41.2% 

- FY2023: 27.9% 

- FY2024: 11.2% 

- FY2025: 0.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in coking coal; annual sales are USD 2.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2129481000; grossProfit 2713000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AMR.US: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 0.1% to 27.9% during 2023–25; it earns 16% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 0.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.15495110994168793],[2017,0.5612611192015509],[2018,0.14569198806853598],[2019,-0.11794772706404198],[2020,-0.2095789568574546],[2021,0.38830836451886136],[2022,1.3612200772874814],[2023,0.5647690472309027],[2024,0.17444190314323027],[2025,-0.042443095214123434]]; median 0.16006694560588314. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back USD 45.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 57930000; owner earnings 32066000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 83121000; owner earnings 195408000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 19974000; upkeep 72157000; owner earnings 299165000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06676583156452125.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 83300000; owner earnings 328781000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 37191000; upkeep 127118000; owner earnings 1448545000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.025674728779568463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 245373000; owner earnings 647475000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 198848000; owner earnings 162762000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 127153000; owner earnings 13237000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,100735000],[2018,0],[2019,13360000],[2020,13360000],[2021,13360000],[2022,13360000],[2023,113013000],[2024,3077000],[2025,415000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 45155000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 30% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AMR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 29.976000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1241156464189283. Price 169.71; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -8.992279507166838 → FY2025 1.0185325682656123. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $66.25 per share

- 2016-11: $69.00 per share

- 2016-12: $71.00 per share

- 2017-01: $67.25 per share

- 2017-02: $66.59 per share

- 2017-03: $66.40 per share

- 2017-04: $68.50 per share

- 2017-05: $74.00 per share

- 2017-06: $65.50 per share

- 2017-07: $69.40 per share

- 2017-08: $62.50 per share

- 2017-09: $59.28 per share

- 2017-10: $59.10 per share

- 2017-11: $59.50 per share

- 2017-12: $59.38 per share

- 2018-01: $68.00 per share

- 2018-02: $68.00 per share

- 2018-03: $67.00 per share

- 2018-04: $66.95 per share

- 2018-05: $68.15 per share

- 2018-06: $72.70 per share

- 2018-07: $68.75 per share

- 2018-08: $76.95 per share

- 2018-09: $79.25 per share

- 2018-10: $72.95 per share

- 2018-11: $64.20 per share

- 2018-12: $65.74 per share

- 2019-01: $64.38 per share

- 2019-02: $61.60 per share

- 2019-03: $57.92 per share

- 2019-04: $56.35 per share

- 2019-05: $52.65 per share

- 2019-06: $51.90 per share

- 2019-07: $35.83 per share

- 2019-08: $28.80 per share

- 2019-09: $27.96 per share

- 2019-10: $22.94 per share

- 2019-11: $6.67 per share

- 2019-12: $9.05 per share

- 2020-01: $5.79 per share

- 2020-02: $5.69 per share

- 2020-03: $2.35 per share

- 2020-04: $3.82 per share

- 2020-05: $3.84 per share

- 2020-06: $3.04 per share

- 2020-07: $3.97 per share

- 2020-08: $4.14 per share

- 2020-09: $7.32 per share

- 2020-10: $6.45 per share

- 2020-11: $7.40 per share

- 2020-12: $11.37 per share

- 2021-01: $11.34 per share

- 2021-02: $15.00 per share

- 2021-03: $12.63 per share

- 2021-04: $12.09 per share

- 2021-05: $19.86 per share

- 2021-06: $25.63 per share

- 2021-07: $27.87 per share

- 2021-08: $39.11 per share

- 2021-09: $49.79 per share

- 2021-10: $61.79 per share

- 2021-11: $46.59 per share

- 2021-12: $61.05 per share

- 2022-01: $63.23 per share

- 2022-02: $94.78 per share

- 2022-03: $131.96 per share

- 2022-04: $154.74 per share

- 2022-05: $161.74 per share

- 2022-06: $129.13 per share

- 2022-07: $136.76 per share

- 2022-08: $157.15 per share

- 2022-09: $136.84 per share

- 2022-10: $168.85 per share

- 2022-11: $171.23 per share

- 2022-12: $146.39 per share

- 2023-01: $160.93 per share

- 2023-02: $167.74 per share

- 2023-03: $156.00 per share

- 2023-04: $146.56 per share

- 2023-05: $134.97 per share

- 2023-06: $164.36 per share

- 2023-07: $173.22 per share

- 2023-08: $202.84 per share

- 2023-09: $259.73 per share

- 2023-10: $219.96 per share

- 2023-11: $280.56 per share

- 2023-12: $338.92 per share

- 2024-01: $399.24 per share

- 2024-02: $377.25 per share

- 2024-03: $331.17 per share

- 2024-04: $327.12 per share

- 2024-05: $315.41 per share

- 2024-06: $280.53 per share

- 2024-07: $295.41 per share

- 2024-08: $239.15 per share

- 2024-09: $236.18 per share

- 2024-10: $208.30 per share

- 2024-11: $245.57 per share

- 2024-12: $200.12 per share

- 2025-01: $183.17 per share

- 2025-02: $137.52 per share

- 2025-03: $125.25 per share

- 2025-04: $121.35 per share

- 2025-05: $112.04 per share

- 2025-06: $112.48 per share

- 2025-07: $118.07 per share

- 2025-08: $149.19 per share

- 2025-09: $164.09 per share

- 2025-10: $173.26 per share

- 2025-11: $159.21 per share

- 2025-12: $199.88 per share

- 2026-01: $209.80 per share

- 2026-02: $162.65 per share

- 2026-03: $205.27 per share

- 2026-04: $186.45 per share

- 2026-05: $198.97 per share

- 2026-06: $164.94 per share

- 2026-07: $137.16 per share

- 2026-08: $235.70 per share

- 2026-09: $168.22 per share

- 2026-10: $169.71 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $144.50 per share, central $162.15 per share, high $185.65 per share

- FY2019: low $49.84 per share, central $55.44 per share, high $62.90 per share

- FY2020: low $35.63 per share, central $39.71 per share, high $45.13 per share

- FY2021: low $156.84 per share, central $178.20 per share, high $206.64 per share

- FY2022: low $372.71 per share, central $422.09 per share, high $487.82 per share

- FY2023: low $390.77 per share, central $442.77 per share, high $512.00 per share

- FY2024: low $477.71 per share, central $668.65 per share, high $779.82 per share

- FY2025: low $289.40 per share, central $325.34 per share, high $373.19 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1704715/000170471526000010/amr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.