# Amazon.com (AMZN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AMZN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:30.564Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $254.76 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $79.39 per share, central $109.14 per share, high $126.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $109.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:30.564Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.12×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 57.5%

- FY2017: 12.5%

- FY2018: 52.3%

- FY2019: 21.8%

- FY2020: 25.8%

- FY2021: 15.2%

- FY2022: 4.9%

- FY2023: 13.1%

- FY2024: 20.3%

- FY2025: 14.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.84×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $167B

- Net income, five-year total: $198B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 43.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 2.92×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 0.67×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 52.3% vs 14.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.24 to 5.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Market cap gain: $2.12T

- Cumulative retained earnings: $246B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 47.6%

- Per-share value change: $5.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.53

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $28B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $246B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 52.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.24

- FY2017: $0.31

- FY2018: $1.01

- FY2019: $1.15

- FY2020: $2.09

- FY2021: $3.24

- FY2022: -$0.27

- FY2023: $2.90

- FY2024: $5.53

- FY2025: $7.17

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.80×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -17.8%

- FY2017: -11.7%

- FY2018: -12.7%

- FY2019: -12.0%

- FY2020: -13.9%

- FY2021: -3.1%

- FY2022: -10.7%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -9.1%

- FY2025: -7.6%

## Holders

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Massey](https://gigainvestors.com/AP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Josh Tarasoff](https://gigainvestors.com/GLC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dennis Hong](https://gigainvestors.com/SP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stuart McLaughlin](https://gigainvestors.com/TFP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Jeffrey Ubben](https://gigainvestors.com/VA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Leon Cooperman](https://gigainvestors.com/oa): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ackman](https://gigainvestors.com/psc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.1% a year for ten years · sales +3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.370Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: Amazon Stock Surges After Tariff Relief ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/18cf6d3a-2471-3f26-aa2e-0427a90e9b30/amazon-stock-surges-after.html))

- 2025-06-09: Amazon Shares Climb as $20B Pennsylvania AI Data Center Plan Takes Spotlight ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-shares-climb-20b-pennsylvania-172707828.html))

- 2025-10-31: Amazon Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, AWS Growth Pushes Stock Higher ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-174300495.html))

- 2026-02-04: Amazon plans $200B AI spending surge, sinking stock after earnings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-200b-ai-spending-surge-sinking-stock-after-earnings-173054820.html))

- 2026-04-30: Amazon's $364 billion backlog is the bull case for its AI spending boom ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/amazons-364-billion-backlog-is-the-bull-case-for-its-ai-spending-boom-135535292.html))

- 2026-07-31: Amazon stock soars as e-commerce giant's AWS cloud business booms in 'home run' quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/amazon-stock-soars-as-e-commerce-giants-aws-cloud-business-booms-in-home-run-quarter-122456315.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: $178B 

- FY2018: $233B 

- FY2019: $281B 

- FY2020: $386B 

- FY2021: $470B 

- FY2022: $514B 

- FY2023: $575B 

- FY2024: $638B 

- FY2025: $717B 

- FY2026: $743B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 50.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2016: 10.3% 

- FY2017: 37.1% 

- FY2018: 40.2% 

- FY2019: 41.0% 

- FY2020: 39.6% 

- FY2021: 42.0% 

- FY2022: 43.8% 

- FY2023: 47.0% 

- FY2024: 48.9% 

- FY2025: 50.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are USD 716.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 716924000000; grossProfit 360510000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMZN.US: Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47% to 50.3% during 2023–25; it earns 17.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 47%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5748785125713078],[2017,0.12530635241091131],[2018,0.5229481207960962],[2019,0.21753518866057023],[2020,0.25755869841416656],[2021,0.1518970595061274],[2022,0.04940550531792675],[2023,0.13103740768644523],[2024,0.20272863290145363],[2025,0.1475313021445799]]; median 0.1773128462037905. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 77.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 43.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 7804000000; owner earnings 2683000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2017: growth capex 477000000; upkeep 11478000000; owner earnings 3033000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1572700296735905.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 13427000000; owner earnings 11987000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 16861000000; owner earnings 17551000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2020: growth capex 14960000000; upkeep 25180000000; owner earnings 21331000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7013267076086447.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2021: growth capex 26620000000; upkeep 34433000000; owner earnings 33364000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7978659633137514.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: growth capex 4066000000; upkeep 48663000000; owner earnings 30425000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13364009860312243.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: growth capex 29558957199.93834; upkeep 53440042800.06166; owner earnings 58602957199.93834. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5043936110440761.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: growth capex 40544596403.64133; upkeep 91274403596.35867; owner earnings 52151596403.64133. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7774373020115339.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Incremental return on capital 0.43402567054588254, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 8.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AMZN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 8.852 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our Supplier Relationships Subject Us to a Number of Risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); Our Supplier Relationships Subject Us to a Number of Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 40.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2490013399371474. Price 254.76; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.15618448637316562 → FY2025 4.816809495117884. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $39.49 per share

- 2016-11: $37.53 per share

- 2016-12: $37.49 per share

- 2017-01: $41.17 per share

- 2017-02: $42.25 per share

- 2017-03: $44.33 per share

- 2017-04: $46.25 per share

- 2017-05: $49.73 per share

- 2017-06: $48.40 per share

- 2017-07: $49.39 per share

- 2017-08: $49.03 per share

- 2017-09: $48.07 per share

- 2017-10: $55.26 per share

- 2017-11: $58.84 per share

- 2017-12: $58.47 per share

- 2018-01: $72.54 per share

- 2018-02: $75.62 per share

- 2018-03: $72.37 per share

- 2018-04: $78.31 per share

- 2018-05: $81.48 per share

- 2018-06: $84.99 per share

- 2018-07: $88.87 per share

- 2018-08: $100.64 per share

- 2018-09: $100.15 per share

- 2018-10: $79.90 per share

- 2018-11: $84.51 per share

- 2018-12: $75.10 per share

- 2019-01: $85.94 per share

- 2019-02: $81.99 per share

- 2019-03: $89.04 per share

- 2019-04: $96.33 per share

- 2019-05: $88.75 per share

- 2019-06: $94.68 per share

- 2019-07: $93.34 per share

- 2019-08: $88.81 per share

- 2019-09: $86.80 per share

- 2019-10: $88.83 per share

- 2019-11: $90.04 per share

- 2019-12: $92.39 per share

- 2020-01: $100.44 per share

- 2020-02: $94.19 per share

- 2020-03: $97.49 per share

- 2020-04: $123.70 per share

- 2020-05: $122.12 per share

- 2020-06: $137.94 per share

- 2020-07: $158.23 per share

- 2020-08: $172.55 per share

- 2020-09: $157.44 per share

- 2020-10: $151.81 per share

- 2020-11: $158.40 per share

- 2020-12: $162.85 per share

- 2021-01: $160.31 per share

- 2021-02: $154.65 per share

- 2021-03: $154.70 per share

- 2021-04: $173.37 per share

- 2021-05: $161.15 per share

- 2021-06: $172.01 per share

- 2021-07: $166.38 per share

- 2021-08: $173.54 per share

- 2021-09: $164.25 per share

- 2021-10: $168.62 per share

- 2021-11: $175.35 per share

- 2021-12: $166.72 per share

- 2022-01: $149.57 per share

- 2022-02: $153.56 per share

- 2022-03: $163.00 per share

- 2022-04: $124.28 per share

- 2022-05: $120.21 per share

- 2022-06: $106.21 per share

- 2022-07: $134.95 per share

- 2022-08: $126.77 per share

- 2022-09: $113.00 per share

- 2022-10: $102.44 per share

- 2022-11: $96.54 per share

- 2022-12: $84.00 per share

- 2023-01: $103.13 per share

- 2023-02: $94.23 per share

- 2023-03: $103.29 per share

- 2023-04: $105.45 per share

- 2023-05: $120.58 per share

- 2023-06: $130.36 per share

- 2023-07: $133.68 per share

- 2023-08: $138.01 per share

- 2023-09: $127.12 per share

- 2023-10: $133.09 per share

- 2023-11: $146.09 per share

- 2023-12: $151.94 per share

- 2024-01: $155.20 per share

- 2024-02: $176.76 per share

- 2024-03: $180.38 per share

- 2024-04: $175.00 per share

- 2024-05: $176.44 per share

- 2024-06: $193.25 per share

- 2024-07: $186.98 per share

- 2024-08: $178.50 per share

- 2024-09: $186.33 per share

- 2024-10: $186.40 per share

- 2024-11: $207.89 per share

- 2024-12: $219.39 per share

- 2025-01: $237.68 per share

- 2025-02: $212.28 per share

- 2025-03: $190.26 per share

- 2025-04: $184.42 per share

- 2025-05: $205.01 per share

- 2025-06: $219.39 per share

- 2025-07: $234.11 per share

- 2025-08: $229.00 per share

- 2025-09: $219.57 per share

- 2025-10: $244.22 per share

- 2025-11: $233.22 per share

- 2025-12: $230.82 per share

- 2026-01: $239.30 per share

- 2026-02: $210.00 per share

- 2026-03: $208.27 per share

- 2026-04: $265.06 per share

- 2026-05: $270.64 per share

- 2026-06: $238.34 per share

- 2026-07: $271.58 per share

- 2026-08: $259.77 per share

- 2026-09: $249.15 per share

- 2026-10: $258.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $2.97 per share, central $3.05 per share, high $3.15 per share

- FY2017: low $5.53 per share, central $5.91 per share, high $6.41 per share

- FY2018: low $8.00 per share, central $8.60 per share, high $9.40 per share

- FY2019: low $10.90 per share, central $11.73 per share, high $12.83 per share

- FY2020: low $28.82 per share, central $31.75 per share, high $35.66 per share

- FY2021: low $42.69 per share, central $57.38 per share, high $65.93 per share

- FY2022: low $43.76 per share, central $59.99 per share, high $69.45 per share

- FY2023: low $48.33 per share, central $65.96 per share, high $76.23 per share

- FY2024: low $52.95 per share, central $72.10 per share, high $83.26 per share

- FY2025: low $73.97 per share, central $101.36 per share, high $117.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:06.683Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.