# Aon (AON.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AON

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:31.720Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $286.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $239.29 per share, central $349.07 per share, high $410.30 per share. Buy at or below the central value $349.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:31.720Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.19×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.25×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.25×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 64.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 43.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 43.9%

- FY2017: 65.4%

- FY2018: 87.1%

- FY2019: 64.0%

- FY2020: 88.8%

- FY2021: 63.9%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 12.5%

- FY2025: 47.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $14B

- Net income, five-year total: $13B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -10.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -82.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.18×

- FY2025: 1.19×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 65.4% vs 47.0%

- Per-share earnings: 4.88 to 12.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: $46B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$4.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.5%

- Per-share value change: $7.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.88

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.22

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $15B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $20B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 65.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 47.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.16

- FY2017: $4.70

- FY2018: $4.59

- FY2019: $6.37

- FY2020: $8.45

- FY2021: $5.55

- FY2022: $12.14

- FY2023: $12.51

- FY2024: $12.49

- FY2025: $17.02

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.94×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.5%

- FY2017: 1.9%

- FY2018: -2.1%

- FY2019: -1.0%

- FY2020: -2.5%

- FY2021: -2.9%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -0.8%

- FY2025: 0.4%

## Holders

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 30% since Feb 2025 · "Aon Sinks 6.6% as $17 Billion Deal Freezes Buybacks" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +9.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.647Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: AON Q1 Earnings Miss on Higher Costs, Wealth Solutions Shows Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aon-q1-earnings-miss-higher-160800210.html))

- 2026-01-30: Aon Q4 Earnings Top Estimates on New Business Growth, Strong Retention ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aon-q4-earnings-top-estimates-181800961.html))

- 2026-05-01: Insurance broker Aon profit jumps on risk management strength ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/insurance-broker-aon-profit-jumps-risk-management-strength-2026-05-01/))

- 2026-07-29: Aon Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on New Business Wins, Strong Retention ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aon-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-175200758.html))

- 2026-09-01: Aon Sinks 6.6% as $17 Billion Deal Freezes Buybacks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aon-sinks-6-6-17-023040956.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $9.4B 

- FY2017: $10.0B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $13B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $17B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 41.4% 

- FY2017: 40.0% 

- FY2018: 43.3% 

- FY2019: 45.0% 

- FY2020: 46.6% 

- FY2021: 44.7% 

- FY2022: 48.1% 

- FY2023: 48.4% 

- FY2024: 47.2% 

- FY2025: 47.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance brokers; annual sales are USD 17.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm#000162828026008116 (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 17181000000; grossProfit 8196000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AON.US: Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Risk Capital and Human Capital segments. The company offers commercial risk solutions comprising retail and insurance brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting, captives management, and affinity programs; health solutions, such as consulting and brokerage, consumer benefits, and talent advisory services; and wealth solutions, including retirement consulting and investments. It also provides treaty and facultative reinsurance; strategy and technology group solutions; insurance-linked securities, capital raising, strategic advice, restructuring, and merger and acquisition services; and risk management products and solutions, capital market solutions, and corporate finance advisory services. In addition, the company offers strategic design advice and actuarial services; pension risk transfer and integrated pension administration; and investment advisory services on developing and maintaining investment programs across various plan types, including defined benefit plans, defined contribution plans, master trusts, and pooled employer plans for corporations, public pensions, endowments, and foundations. Aon plc was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.2% to 48.4% during 2023–25; it earns 64.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 48.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.43893985906311594],[2017,0.6536827195467422],[2018,0.8709788255324387],[2019,0.6399550209420843],[2020,0.8882801415408812],[2021,0.639431666196517],[2022,1.7946912254704046],[2023,1.9081086628537665],[2024,0.12547603535471819],[2025,0.469674536593557]]; median 0.6468188702444133. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 222000000; owner earnings 1493000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 183000000; owner earnings 1934000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 240000000; owner earnings 1663000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 225000000; owner earnings 1871000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 141000000; owner earnings 2241000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 137000000; owner earnings 1444000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 196000000; owner earnings 2657000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 252000000; owner earnings 2568000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 218000000; owner earnings 3122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 263000000; owner earnings 4398000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,345000000],[2017,364000000],[2018,382000000],[2019,410000000],[2020,412000000],[2021,447000000],[2022,463000000],[2023,489000000],[2024,562000000],[2025,629000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AON.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.012 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We have debt outstanding that could adversely affect our financial flexibility." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); We have debt outstanding that could adversely affect our financial flexibility.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07109077394044441. Price 286.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.049330514446794 → FY2025 20.257945647167205. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $110.83 per share

- 2016-11: $114.10 per share

- 2016-12: $111.53 per share

- 2017-01: $112.70 per share

- 2017-02: $115.65 per share

- 2017-03: $118.69 per share

- 2017-04: $119.84 per share

- 2017-05: $130.91 per share

- 2017-06: $132.95 per share

- 2017-07: $138.17 per share

- 2017-08: $139.16 per share

- 2017-09: $146.10 per share

- 2017-10: $143.43 per share

- 2017-11: $140.22 per share

- 2017-12: $134.00 per share

- 2018-01: $142.17 per share

- 2018-02: $140.32 per share

- 2018-03: $140.33 per share

- 2018-04: $142.47 per share

- 2018-05: $139.87 per share

- 2018-06: $137.17 per share

- 2018-07: $143.55 per share

- 2018-08: $145.56 per share

- 2018-09: $153.78 per share

- 2018-10: $156.18 per share

- 2018-11: $165.11 per share

- 2018-12: $145.36 per share

- 2019-01: $156.23 per share

- 2019-02: $171.53 per share

- 2019-03: $170.70 per share

- 2019-04: $180.14 per share

- 2019-05: $180.07 per share

- 2019-06: $192.98 per share

- 2019-07: $189.25 per share

- 2019-08: $194.85 per share

- 2019-09: $193.57 per share

- 2019-10: $193.16 per share

- 2019-11: $203.61 per share

- 2019-12: $208.29 per share

- 2020-01: $220.25 per share

- 2020-02: $208.00 per share

- 2020-03: $165.04 per share

- 2020-04: $172.67 per share

- 2020-05: $196.95 per share

- 2020-06: $192.60 per share

- 2020-07: $205.22 per share

- 2020-08: $199.99 per share

- 2020-09: $206.30 per share

- 2020-10: $184.01 per share

- 2020-11: $204.89 per share

- 2020-12: $211.27 per share

- 2021-01: $203.10 per share

- 2021-02: $227.71 per share

- 2021-03: $230.11 per share

- 2021-04: $251.44 per share

- 2021-05: $253.37 per share

- 2021-06: $238.76 per share

- 2021-07: $260.03 per share

- 2021-08: $286.86 per share

- 2021-09: $285.77 per share

- 2021-10: $319.92 per share

- 2021-11: $295.77 per share

- 2021-12: $300.56 per share

- 2022-01: $276.44 per share

- 2022-02: $292.14 per share

- 2022-03: $325.63 per share

- 2022-04: $287.99 per share

- 2022-05: $275.67 per share

- 2022-06: $269.68 per share

- 2022-07: $291.04 per share

- 2022-08: $279.26 per share

- 2022-09: $267.87 per share

- 2022-10: $281.49 per share

- 2022-11: $308.28 per share

- 2022-12: $300.14 per share

- 2023-01: $318.68 per share

- 2023-02: $304.05 per share

- 2023-03: $315.29 per share

- 2023-04: $325.18 per share

- 2023-05: $308.29 per share

- 2023-06: $345.20 per share

- 2023-07: $318.50 per share

- 2023-08: $333.39 per share

- 2023-09: $324.22 per share

- 2023-10: $309.40 per share

- 2023-11: $328.49 per share

- 2023-12: $291.02 per share

- 2024-01: $298.43 per share

- 2024-02: $315.99 per share

- 2024-03: $333.72 per share

- 2024-04: $282.01 per share

- 2024-05: $281.64 per share

- 2024-06: $293.58 per share

- 2024-07: $328.51 per share

- 2024-08: $343.72 per share

- 2024-09: $345.99 per share

- 2024-10: $366.87 per share

- 2024-11: $391.54 per share

- 2024-12: $359.16 per share

- 2025-01: $370.82 per share

- 2025-02: $409.12 per share

- 2025-03: $399.09 per share

- 2025-04: $354.79 per share

- 2025-05: $372.08 per share

- 2025-06: $356.76 per share

- 2025-07: $355.71 per share

- 2025-08: $367.00 per share

- 2025-09: $356.58 per share

- 2025-10: $340.68 per share

- 2025-11: $353.92 per share

- 2025-12: $352.88 per share

- 2026-01: $349.64 per share

- 2026-02: $335.47 per share

- 2026-03: $322.78 per share

- 2026-04: $311.65 per share

- 2026-05: $316.06 per share

- 2026-06: $331.69 per share

- 2026-07: $360.55 per share

- 2026-08: $321.52 per share

- 2026-09: $276.77 per share

- 2026-10: $274.71 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $54.80 per share, central $62.36 per share, high $72.42 per share

- FY2017: low $63.36 per share, central $72.10 per share, high $83.73 per share

- FY2018: low $75.37 per share, central $87.95 per share, high $102.28 per share

- FY2019: low $84.91 per share, central $103.69 per share, high $120.88 per share

- FY2020: low $99.36 per share, central $128.19 per share, high $149.85 per share

- FY2021: low $105.02 per share, central $125.64 per share, high $146.31 per share

- FY2022: low $122.70 per share, central $158.55 per share, high $185.35 per share

- FY2023: low $171.03 per share, central $234.55 per share, high $275.03 per share

- FY2024: low $160.58 per share, central $182.73 per share, high $212.20 per share

- FY2025: low $228.54 per share, central $333.39 per share, high $391.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315293/000162828026008116/aon-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.