# Apa (APA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/APA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:31.943Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $47.23 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $48.34 per share, central $54.91 per share, high $63.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value $54.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:31.943Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.2% at the stated quote. About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.41×

- FY2024: 0.33×

- FY2025: 0.31×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 30.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.8%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 8.8%

- FY2019: 3.0%

- FY2020: 2.0%

- FY2021: 32.7%

- FY2022: 62.4%

- FY2023: 42.7%

- FY2024: 21.5%

- FY2025: 17.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 253.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.22×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.86×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.0% vs 21.5%

- Per-share earnings: -3.70 to 3.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: -$15B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $7.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$3.70

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.26

- Average buyback yield: 5.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$3.70

- FY2017: $3.40

- FY2018: $0.11

- FY2019: -$9.32

- FY2020: -$12.66

- FY2021: $3.03

- FY2022: $11.03

- FY2023: $9.24

- FY2024: $2.28

- FY2025: $3.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -16.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.59×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.17×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -17.0%

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -17.3%

- FY2019: -35.2%

- FY2020: -48.4%

- FY2021: -17.7%

- FY2022: -9.7%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -14.5%

- FY2025: -16.4%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1% a year for ten years · sales -1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.747Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-11: APA Slashes Q2 Natural Gas and NGL Output Amid Weak Gas Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apa-slashes-q2-natural-gas-120400204.html))

- 2025-08-07: APA Corp earnings beat by $0.35, revenue topped estimates ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/apa-corp-earnings-beat-by-035-revenue-topped-estimates-4174901))

- 2025-11-08: Why APA (APA) Is Up 5.2% After Returning to Profitability and Raising Production Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-apa-apa-5-2-071514388.html))

- 2026-01-09: APA Corp (APA) Jumps 8.5% on LNG Demand Growth, Colder Season ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apa-corp-apa-jumps-8-022326177.html))

- 2026-08-06: APA beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; raises FY2026 production outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4627243-apa-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-raises-fy2026-production-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $5.9B 

- FY2018: $7.3B 

- FY2019: $6.5B 

- FY2020: $4.4B 

- FY2021: $8.0B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $8.3B 

- FY2024: $9.7B 

- FY2025: $8.9B 

- FY2026: $8.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 19.7% 

- FY2017: 34.4% 

- FY2018: 43.0% 

- FY2019: 29.5% 

- FY2020: 20.4% 

- FY2021: 44.3% 

- FY2022: 56.5% 

- FY2023: 51.1% 

- FY2024: 44.2% 

- FY2025: 37.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 8.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 8920000000; grossProfit 3329000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.3% to 51.1% during 2023–25; it earns 13% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 51.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 44.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.00770783928450437],[2017,0.059879816189466244],[2018,0.0880650932360834],[2019,0.030160432395332875],[2020,0.01956061256619436],[2021,0.32723523042215297],[2022,0.6239815685213369],[2023,0.4265752032520325],[2024,0.21539758716148033],[2025,0.172090112640801]]; median 0.1300776029384422. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 280 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 1605415885.6590438; upkeep 1154584114.3409562; owner earnings 427219105.0561497. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.757827931052013.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 3764000000; upkeep 140000000; owner earnings 40000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 94.1.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1113000000; owner earnings 1382000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 1165000000; upkeep 1233000000; owner earnings 3674000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3170930865541644.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2357000000; owner earnings 2127673838.4783287. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 585000000; upkeep 2266000000; owner earnings 804000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7276119402985075.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2766000000; owner earnings 1234833333.3333333. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,379000000],[2017,380000000],[2018,382000000],[2019,376000000],[2020,146000000],[2021,98000000],[2022,218000000],[2023,308000000],[2024,353000000],[2025,360000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 280000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); APA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.44200000000000006 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"International operations have uncertain political, economic, and other risks." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); International operations have uncertain political, economic, and other risks.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.027098578498111425. Price 47.23; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -73.02380952380952 → FY2025 3.439647168059424. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $59.48 per share

- 2016-11: $65.95 per share

- 2016-12: $63.47 per share

- 2017-01: $59.82 per share

- 2017-02: $52.59 per share

- 2017-03: $51.39 per share

- 2017-04: $48.64 per share

- 2017-05: $46.76 per share

- 2017-06: $47.93 per share

- 2017-07: $49.48 per share

- 2017-08: $38.84 per share

- 2017-09: $45.80 per share

- 2017-10: $41.37 per share

- 2017-11: $41.83 per share

- 2017-12: $42.22 per share

- 2018-01: $44.87 per share

- 2018-02: $34.15 per share

- 2018-03: $38.48 per share

- 2018-04: $40.95 per share

- 2018-05: $40.00 per share

- 2018-06: $46.75 per share

- 2018-07: $46.00 per share

- 2018-08: $43.83 per share

- 2018-09: $47.67 per share

- 2018-10: $37.83 per share

- 2018-11: $35.13 per share

- 2018-12: $26.25 per share

- 2019-01: $32.82 per share

- 2019-02: $33.18 per share

- 2019-03: $34.66 per share

- 2019-04: $32.91 per share

- 2019-05: $26.07 per share

- 2019-06: $28.97 per share

- 2019-07: $24.42 per share

- 2019-08: $21.57 per share

- 2019-09: $25.60 per share

- 2019-10: $21.66 per share

- 2019-11: $22.28 per share

- 2019-12: $25.59 per share

- 2020-01: $27.44 per share

- 2020-02: $24.92 per share

- 2020-03: $4.18 per share

- 2020-04: $13.08 per share

- 2020-05: $10.79 per share

- 2020-06: $13.50 per share

- 2020-07: $15.35 per share

- 2020-08: $14.80 per share

- 2020-09: $9.47 per share

- 2020-10: $8.30 per share

- 2020-11: $12.89 per share

- 2020-12: $14.19 per share

- 2021-01: $14.28 per share

- 2021-02: $19.73 per share

- 2021-03: $17.90 per share

- 2021-04: $20.00 per share

- 2021-05: $20.80 per share

- 2021-06: $21.63 per share

- 2021-07: $18.75 per share

- 2021-08: $19.48 per share

- 2021-09: $21.43 per share

- 2021-10: $26.21 per share

- 2021-11: $25.77 per share

- 2021-12: $26.89 per share

- 2022-01: $33.21 per share

- 2022-02: $35.63 per share

- 2022-03: $41.33 per share

- 2022-04: $40.93 per share

- 2022-05: $47.01 per share

- 2022-06: $34.90 per share

- 2022-07: $37.17 per share

- 2022-08: $39.11 per share

- 2022-09: $34.19 per share

- 2022-10: $45.46 per share

- 2022-11: $46.85 per share

- 2022-12: $46.68 per share

- 2023-01: $44.33 per share

- 2023-02: $38.38 per share

- 2023-03: $36.06 per share

- 2023-04: $36.85 per share

- 2023-05: $31.78 per share

- 2023-06: $34.17 per share

- 2023-07: $40.49 per share

- 2023-08: $43.84 per share

- 2023-09: $41.10 per share

- 2023-10: $39.72 per share

- 2023-11: $36.00 per share

- 2023-12: $35.88 per share

- 2024-01: $31.33 per share

- 2024-02: $29.79 per share

- 2024-03: $34.38 per share

- 2024-04: $31.44 per share

- 2024-05: $30.53 per share

- 2024-06: $29.44 per share

- 2024-07: $31.19 per share

- 2024-08: $28.49 per share

- 2024-09: $24.46 per share

- 2024-10: $23.60 per share

- 2024-11: $22.65 per share

- 2024-12: $23.09 per share

- 2025-01: $21.93 per share

- 2025-02: $20.70 per share

- 2025-03: $21.02 per share

- 2025-04: $15.54 per share

- 2025-05: $17.01 per share

- 2025-06: $18.29 per share

- 2025-07: $19.29 per share

- 2025-08: $23.22 per share

- 2025-09: $24.28 per share

- 2025-10: $22.65 per share

- 2025-11: $24.97 per share

- 2025-12: $24.46 per share

- 2026-01: $26.41 per share

- 2026-02: $30.37 per share

- 2026-03: $42.44 per share

- 2026-04: $40.73 per share

- 2026-05: $36.43 per share

- 2026-06: $32.57 per share

- 2026-07: $37.32 per share

- 2026-08: $43.15 per share

- 2026-09: $41.54 per share

- 2026-10: $47.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $1.65 per share, central $1.82 per share, high $2.05 per share

- FY2022: low $2.00 per share, central $2.27 per share, high $2.64 per share

- FY2023: low $50.69 per share, central $57.67 per share, high $66.98 per share

- FY2024: low $53.06 per share, central $60.25 per share, high $69.83 per share

- FY2025: low $47.80 per share, central $54.28 per share, high $62.91 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:08.180Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000184166626000015/apa-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.