# American Public Education (APEI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/APEI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:32.543Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $49.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $10.29 per share, central $11.71 per share, high $13.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:32.543Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.6% at the stated quote. About 4.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: -0.23×

- FY2023: -0.08×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 21.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -11.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 59.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 51.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.3%

- FY2017: 30.0%

- FY2018: 32.8%

- FY2019: 24.4%

- FY2020: 28.8%

- FY2021: 7.0%

- FY2022: -34.3%

- FY2023: -11.9%

- FY2024: 7.0%

- FY2025: 17.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$61M

- Net income, five-year total: -$97M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $24M

- FY2022: -$99M

- FY2023: -$33M

- FY2024: $16M

- FY2025: $32M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.0% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.49 to 0.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Market cap gain: $290M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$104M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.3%

- Per-share value change: -$0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.49

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.59

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $298M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.9M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.49

- FY2017: $1.29

- FY2018: $1.54

- FY2019: $0.62

- FY2020: $1.25

- FY2021: $0.97

- FY2022: -$6.08

- FY2023: -$2.60

- FY2024: $0.89

- FY2025: $1.69

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 13.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.96×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.9%

- FY2017: -7.9%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -8.0%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: -21.0%

- FY2023: -16.6%

- FY2024: -5.7%

- FY2025: -5.6%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.2% a year for ten years · sales +3.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.923Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-07: APEI outlines $81M–$88M adjusted EBITDA target for 2025 amid business simplification and enrollment growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4481059-apei-outlines-81m-88m-adjusted-ebitda-target-for-2025-amid-business-simplification-and?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-11: Apei outlines $640M-$644M full-year revenue target as enrollment momentum drives Q4 guidance ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4519779-apei-outlines-640m-644m-full-year-revenue-target-as-enrollment-momentum-drives-q4-guidance?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: $313M 

- FY2017: $299M 

- FY2018: $298M 

- FY2019: $286M 

- FY2020: $322M 

- FY2021: $419M 

- FY2022: $606M 

- FY2023: $601M 

- FY2024: $625M 

- FY2025: $649M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 51.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-12.

- FY2016: 62.6% 

- FY2017: 61.2% 

- FY2018: 61.3% 

- FY2019: 60.9% 

- FY2020: 62.0% 

- FY2021: 58.8% 

- FY2022: 52.4% 

- FY2023: 51.2% 

- FY2024: 52.7% 

- FY2025: 51.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in education & training services; annual sales are USD 648.9 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: revenue 648862000; grossProfit 335694000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); APEI.US: American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education services in the United States. It operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. The company offers 181 degree programs, 110 certificate programs, and four diploma programs in various fields of study, including public service-focused fields, such as nursing, national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security, as well as traditional academic fields comprising business, health science, information technology, justice studies, education, and liberal arts; and career learning and leadership training in-person and online to the federal workforce. It also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education; and pre-licensure nursing education services focusing on a diploma in practical nursing and associate degree in nursing, as well as a bachelor of science in nursing. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 51.2% to 52.7% during 2023–25; it earns 21% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 52.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.29277115522658537],[2017,0.30029575501667294],[2018,0.3276852787916464],[2019,0.24415411906358142],[2020,0.28751115767481217],[2021,0.06953430199588259],[2022,-0.3426727260668955],[2023,-0.11908685517064906],[2024,0.07007020433353332],[2025,0.1754539696955675]]; median 0.20980404437957445. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 47.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 16399000; owner earnings 27140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 14788000; owner earnings 25109000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 9430000; owner earnings 33710000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 7255000; owner earnings 18354000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4926000; owner earnings 26880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 11828000; owner earnings 23756000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); FY2024: growth capex 1779000; upkeep 19303000; owner earnings 16113000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11040774529882703.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 15864000; owner earnings 31841000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,175000000],[2022,0],[2023,6005000],[2024,6056000],[2025,2751000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 47454000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); APEI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.9590000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.26546888655503464. Price 49.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5279795213715919 → FY2025 1.7063772775991426. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $20.15 per share

- 2016-11: $23.10 per share

- 2016-12: $24.55 per share

- 2017-01: $24.30 per share

- 2017-02: $24.15 per share

- 2017-03: $22.90 per share

- 2017-04: $22.10 per share

- 2017-05: $22.00 per share

- 2017-06: $23.65 per share

- 2017-07: $21.30 per share

- 2017-08: $18.45 per share

- 2017-09: $21.05 per share

- 2017-10: $20.00 per share

- 2017-11: $26.85 per share

- 2017-12: $25.05 per share

- 2018-01: $25.40 per share

- 2018-02: $30.75 per share

- 2018-03: $43.00 per share

- 2018-04: $40.30 per share

- 2018-05: $42.60 per share

- 2018-06: $42.10 per share

- 2018-07: $44.10 per share

- 2018-08: $34.75 per share

- 2018-09: $33.05 per share

- 2018-10: $32.73 per share

- 2018-11: $31.64 per share

- 2018-12: $28.46 per share

- 2019-01: $29.59 per share

- 2019-02: $32.31 per share

- 2019-03: $30.12 per share

- 2019-04: $32.00 per share

- 2019-05: $27.98 per share

- 2019-06: $29.58 per share

- 2019-07: $33.02 per share

- 2019-08: $24.23 per share

- 2019-09: $22.34 per share

- 2019-10: $21.72 per share

- 2019-11: $24.76 per share

- 2019-12: $27.39 per share

- 2020-01: $23.83 per share

- 2020-02: $22.26 per share

- 2020-03: $23.93 per share

- 2020-04: $25.77 per share

- 2020-05: $31.43 per share

- 2020-06: $29.60 per share

- 2020-07: $29.11 per share

- 2020-08: $31.44 per share

- 2020-09: $28.19 per share

- 2020-10: $28.27 per share

- 2020-11: $31.04 per share

- 2020-12: $30.48 per share

- 2021-01: $28.78 per share

- 2021-02: $29.44 per share

- 2021-03: $35.63 per share

- 2021-04: $30.46 per share

- 2021-05: $28.00 per share

- 2021-06: $28.34 per share

- 2021-07: $29.62 per share

- 2021-08: $26.30 per share

- 2021-09: $25.61 per share

- 2021-10: $24.99 per share

- 2021-11: $18.89 per share

- 2021-12: $22.25 per share

- 2022-01: $21.39 per share

- 2022-02: $19.96 per share

- 2022-03: $21.24 per share

- 2022-04: $19.44 per share

- 2022-05: $13.94 per share

- 2022-06: $16.16 per share

- 2022-07: $15.71 per share

- 2022-08: $10.33 per share

- 2022-09: $9.14 per share

- 2022-10: $12.81 per share

- 2022-11: $12.85 per share

- 2022-12: $12.29 per share

- 2023-01: $12.11 per share

- 2023-02: $11.04 per share

- 2023-03: $5.42 per share

- 2023-04: $5.70 per share

- 2023-05: $5.01 per share

- 2023-06: $4.74 per share

- 2023-07: $5.01 per share

- 2023-08: $5.26 per share

- 2023-09: $4.98 per share

- 2023-10: $4.17 per share

- 2023-11: $7.87 per share

- 2023-12: $9.65 per share

- 2024-01: $10.58 per share

- 2024-02: $10.45 per share

- 2024-03: $14.20 per share

- 2024-04: $13.83 per share

- 2024-05: $17.40 per share

- 2024-06: $17.58 per share

- 2024-07: $19.96 per share

- 2024-08: $16.72 per share

- 2024-09: $14.75 per share

- 2024-10: $15.17 per share

- 2024-11: $20.62 per share

- 2024-12: $21.57 per share

- 2025-01: $22.17 per share

- 2025-02: $21.16 per share

- 2025-03: $22.32 per share

- 2025-04: $23.50 per share

- 2025-05: $29.45 per share

- 2025-06: $30.46 per share

- 2025-07: $29.52 per share

- 2025-08: $30.18 per share

- 2025-09: $39.47 per share

- 2025-10: $33.49 per share

- 2025-11: $34.82 per share

- 2025-12: $37.80 per share

- 2026-01: $41.78 per share

- 2026-02: $45.82 per share

- 2026-03: $56.88 per share

- 2026-04: $58.15 per share

- 2026-05: $49.47 per share

- 2026-06: $53.70 per share

- 2026-07: $48.51 per share

- 2026-08: $45.65 per share

- 2026-09: $42.18 per share

- 2026-10: $49.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.62 per share, central $23.50 per share, high $27.35 per share

- FY2017: low $18.05 per share, central $20.58 per share, high $23.94 per share

- FY2018: low $16.95 per share, central $19.29 per share, high $22.40 per share

- FY2019: low $16.15 per share, central $18.38 per share, high $21.34 per share

- FY2020: low $19.61 per share, central $22.32 per share, high $25.92 per share

- FY2021: low $20.95 per share, central $23.84 per share, high $27.68 per share

- FY2022: low $22.47 per share, central $25.56 per share, high $29.69 per share

- FY2023: low $20.47 per share, central $23.29 per share, high $27.04 per share

- FY2024: low $9.70 per share, central $11.04 per share, high $12.82 per share

- FY2025: low $9.81 per share, central $11.16 per share, high $12.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1201792/000120179226000004/apei-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.