# Api Group (APG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/APG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:32.669Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $40.33 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $12.98 per share, central $14.55 per share, high $16.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $14.55 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:32.669Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.3% at the stated quote. About 5.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 4.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: -0.16×

- FY2020: -0.05×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -6.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.3%

- FY2018: 17.6%

- FY2019: -6.9%

- FY2020: -8.7%

- FY2021: 4.6%

- FY2022: 5.9%

- FY2023: 9.5%

- FY2024: 12.4%

- FY2025: 16.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.26×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $825M

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 4.13×

- FY2022: 4.08×

- FY2023: 2.42×

- FY2024: 1.87×

- FY2025: 1.76×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 0.78 to 0.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 10.4%

- Market cap gain: $15B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $515M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 10.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.6%

- Per-share value change: -$0.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.38

- Average buyback yield: 9.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $871M

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.93

- FY2018: $0.78

- FY2019: -$0.77

- FY2020: -$0.60

- FY2021: $0.15

- FY2022: $0.18

- FY2023: $0.43

- FY2024: $0.62

- FY2025: $0.73

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.51×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.39×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.5%

- FY2018: 1.2%

- FY2019: -7.6%

- FY2020: -16.0%

- FY2021: -2.6%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -5.1%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.7% a year for ten years · sales +12.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:18.986Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: APi Group beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; initiates Q3 and raises FY25 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475437-api-group-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-initiates-q3-and-raises-fy25-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-03: APi Group (APG) Is Up 5.9% After Record Q3 Results and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/api-group-apg-5-9-001246720.html))

- 2026-06-09: APi Group Raises FY26 Outlook After Completing Acquisition Of Onyx-Fire Protection Services ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/api-group-raises-fy26-outlook-after-completing-acquisition-onyx-fire-protection-services))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +12.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $2.6B 

- FY2017: $3.0B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $985M 

- FY2020: $3.6B 

- FY2021: $3.9B 

- FY2022: $6.6B 

- FY2023: $6.9B 

- FY2024: $7.0B 

- FY2025: $7.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 31.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 23.2% 

- FY2017: 21.8% 

- FY2018: 21.1% 

- FY2019: 20.1% 

- FY2020: 21.1% 

- FY2021: 23.8% 

- FY2022: 26.1% 

- FY2023: 28.0% 

- FY2024: 31.0% 

- FY2025: 31.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 7.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 7911000000; grossProfit 2487000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); APG.US: APi Group Corporation provides fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Safety Services and Specialty Services. The company offers fire protection solutions; electronic security systems; and elevators and escalators, including the design, installation, inspection, service, and monitoring of life safety systems to high tech services, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, fulfillment and distribution centers, and critical infrastructure end markets. It also provides various specialty contracting, fabrication and distribution, and infrastructure and utility services to critical infrastructure, high tech services, and healthcare end markets. The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28% to 31.4% during 2023–25; it earns 9.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09335693821771196],[2018,0.17567416715837145],[2019,-0.06938897981451173],[2020,-0.0872521623419827],[2021,0.04647739221871714],[2022,0.058653731698607305],[2023,0.09500574251397577],[2024,0.12399954909254876],[2025,0.16872308047595183]]; median 0.09335693821771196. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 34.9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 5 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 39000000; owner earnings 69000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 74000000; cash acquisitions 234000000; owner earnings 171000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.368421052631579.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 38000000; cash acquisitions 319000000; owner earnings 72000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.430555555555555.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 55000000; cash acquisitions 86000000; owner earnings 194000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.44329896907216493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 79000000; cash acquisitions 2839000000; owner earnings 298000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 9.526845637583893.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 86000000; cash acquisitions 83000000; owner earnings 370000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.22432432432432434.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 84000000; cash acquisitions 778000000; owner earnings 468000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.6623931623931625.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 96000000; cash acquisitions 186000000; owner earnings 533000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.34896810506566606.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,111000000],[2018,74000000],[2019,53000000],[2020,3000000],[2021,673000000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 75000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 12% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); APG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.982 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20022643416917518. Price 40.33; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-10: $10.01 per share

- 2017-11: $9.84 per share

- 2017-12: $10.00 per share

- 2018-01: $9.70 per share

- 2018-02: $9.50 per share

- 2018-04: $9.45 per share

- 2018-05: $9.45 per share

- 2018-06: $9.80 per share

- 2018-09: $9.10 per share

- 2018-11: $9.10 per share

- 2019-01: $9.00 per share

- 2019-03: $9.00 per share

- 2019-04: $9.00 per share

- 2019-05: $8.85 per share

- 2019-06: $8.75 per share

- 2019-07: $8.60 per share

- 2019-08: $9.21 per share

- 2019-09: $9.85 per share

- 2019-10: $9.90 per share

- 2019-11: $9.69 per share

- 2019-12: $10.55 per share

- 2020-01: $11.75 per share

- 2020-02: $10.95 per share

- 2020-03: $7.00 per share

- 2020-04: $6.73 per share

- 2020-05: $7.51 per share

- 2020-06: $8.10 per share

- 2020-07: $9.29 per share

- 2020-08: $9.43 per share

- 2020-09: $9.49 per share

- 2020-10: $9.59 per share

- 2020-11: $10.33 per share

- 2020-12: $12.10 per share

- 2021-01: $11.94 per share

- 2021-02: $12.33 per share

- 2021-03: $13.79 per share

- 2021-04: $14.17 per share

- 2021-05: $14.10 per share

- 2021-06: $13.93 per share

- 2021-07: $15.28 per share

- 2021-08: $15.46 per share

- 2021-09: $13.57 per share

- 2021-10: $14.52 per share

- 2021-11: $15.54 per share

- 2021-12: $17.18 per share

- 2022-01: $14.87 per share

- 2022-02: $14.38 per share

- 2022-03: $14.02 per share

- 2022-04: $12.37 per share

- 2022-05: $11.63 per share

- 2022-06: $9.98 per share

- 2022-07: $11.81 per share

- 2022-08: $10.37 per share

- 2022-09: $8.85 per share

- 2022-10: $10.99 per share

- 2022-11: $12.81 per share

- 2022-12: $12.54 per share

- 2023-01: $14.83 per share

- 2023-02: $15.66 per share

- 2023-03: $14.99 per share

- 2023-04: $15.17 per share

- 2023-05: $15.07 per share

- 2023-06: $18.17 per share

- 2023-07: $19.17 per share

- 2023-08: $18.77 per share

- 2023-09: $17.29 per share

- 2023-10: $17.25 per share

- 2023-11: $20.23 per share

- 2023-12: $23.07 per share

- 2024-01: $21.01 per share

- 2024-02: $23.37 per share

- 2024-03: $26.18 per share

- 2024-04: $25.71 per share

- 2024-05: $23.76 per share

- 2024-06: $25.09 per share

- 2024-07: $25.26 per share

- 2024-08: $23.70 per share

- 2024-09: $22.01 per share

- 2024-10: $22.76 per share

- 2024-11: $25.19 per share

- 2024-12: $23.98 per share

- 2025-01: $25.43 per share

- 2025-02: $26.18 per share

- 2025-03: $23.84 per share

- 2025-04: $25.22 per share

- 2025-05: $31.11 per share

- 2025-06: $34.03 per share

- 2025-07: $36.07 per share

- 2025-08: $35.68 per share

- 2025-09: $34.37 per share

- 2025-10: $36.82 per share

- 2025-11: $39.56 per share

- 2025-12: $38.26 per share

- 2026-01: $41.57 per share

- 2026-02: $44.46 per share

- 2026-03: $40.52 per share

- 2026-04: $45.72 per share

- 2026-05: $41.00 per share

- 2026-06: $42.35 per share

- 2026-07: $39.68 per share

- 2026-08: $39.25 per share

- 2026-09: $38.60 per share

- 2026-10: $40.33 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $6.75 per share, central $7.18 per share, high $7.76 per share

- FY2022: low $9.35 per share, central $10.47 per share, high $11.97 per share

- FY2023: low $10.72 per share, central $12.07 per share, high $13.86 per share

- FY2024: low $10.30 per share, central $11.60 per share, high $13.32 per share

- FY2025: low $12.92 per share, central $14.45 per share, high $16.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1796209/000162828026011620/apg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.