# Apollo Global Management LLC (APO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/APO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:33.294Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $111.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $202.92 per share, central $277.64 per share, high $321.15 per share. Buy at or below the central value $277.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:33.294Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 22.6% at the stated quote. About 22.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.53×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.46×

- FY2020: 0.39×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.24×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -17.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 77.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 95.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.2%

- FY2017: 41.7%

- FY2018: 5.8%

- FY2019: 27.1%

- FY2020: 5.7%

- FY2021: 20.3%

- FY2022: 1.2%

- FY2023: 17.6%

- FY2024: 17.1%

- FY2025: 18.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.26×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$4.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $17B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 23.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -33.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.20×

- FY2023: -3.68×

- FY2024: 1.24×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.2% vs 17.6%

- Per-share earnings: 2.11 to 7.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 13.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 21.7%

- Market cap gain: $84B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $8.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 13.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 21.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.9%

- Per-share value change: $5.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.26

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $9.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.11

- FY2017: $3.16

- FY2018: -$0.14

- FY2019: $3.64

- FY2020: $0.69

- FY2021: $7.49

- FY2022: $3.42

- FY2023: $8.40

- FY2024: $7.34

- FY2025: $5.74

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.28×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.0%

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -14.1%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: 7.5%

- FY2021: 2.5%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -0.4%

- FY2024: 0.3%

- FY2025: -0.9%

## Holders

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Leon Cooperman](https://gigainvestors.com/oa): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 36% since Nov 2024 · "Apollo Stock Falls After Private-Credit Fund Caps Redemptions" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +12.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:19.118Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Higher Expenses to Hurt Apollo's Q2 Earnings, AUM Growth to Aid ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/higher-expenses-hurt-apollos-q2-150500988.html))

- 2026-07-15: Apollo Lands Record $35 Billion AI Credit Deal, Challenging Wall Street Banks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apollo-lands-record-35-billion-151249670.html))

- 2026-08-05: Apollo's Deal Spree Drives Fee-Related Revenue to a Record ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/apollos-deal-spree-drives-fee-184215045.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411494/000141149423000010/apo-20221231.htm; observed 2023-03-01.

- FY2017: $2.8B 

- FY2018: $1.1B 

- FY2019: $2.9B 

- FY2020: $2.4B 

- FY2021: $6.0B 

- FY2022: $3.6B 

- FY2023: $33B 

- FY2024: $26B 

- FY2025: $32B 

- FY2026: $36B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 95.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411494/000141149423000010/apo-20221231.htm; observed 2023-03-01.

- FY2016: 59.0% 

- FY2017: 62.6% 

- FY2018: 58.0% 

- FY2019: 82.5% 

- FY2020: 73.3% 

- FY2021: 86.9% 

- FY2022: 45.3% 

- FY2023: 90.3% 

- FY2024: 95.6% 

- FY2025: 95.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 32 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2025: revenue 32049000000; grossProfit 30606000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 90.3% to 95.6% during 2023–25; it earns 17.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 90.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 95.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 95.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.29184133472781565],[2017,0.4167435185336526],[2018,0.05751188096355801],[2019,0.2711629467956863],[2020,0.05686615042125279],[2021,0.20315164078461337],[2022,0.011606323357553515],[2023,0.17644059153493116],[2024,0.1711313517511013],[2025,0.1819878738425404]]; median 0.17921423268873576. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 773 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 6356000; owner earnings 400403000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 8529000; owner earnings 618304000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2019: growth capex 23737000; upkeep 15758000; owner earnings 807962000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02937885692643961.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 59562000; owner earnings 143357740.54095742. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2021: growth capex 37738000; upkeep 27000000; owner earnings 1839000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.020520935290918977.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411494/000141149423000010/apo-20221231.htm (filed 2023-03-01); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 202525000; owner earnings 2385795000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 5501000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 4417208665.062026. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); Dividend observations: [[2016,239109000],[2017,380238000],[2018,438525000],[2019,471930000],[2020,586188000],[2021,553962000],[2022,962000000],[2023,1034000000],[2024,1189000000],[2025,1298000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); FY2025: cash repurchases 773000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 26.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); APO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 26.245 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We depend on investors in the funds we manage for our continued success." (SEC filing, Mar 2023)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411494/000141149423000010/apo-20221231.htm (filed 2023-03-01); We depend on investors in the funds we manage for our continued success.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 24.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-01); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.115002007725372. Price 111.87; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8326289192602326 → FY2025 7.2661771976220075. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.28 per share

- 2016-11: $19.26 per share

- 2016-12: $19.36 per share

- 2017-01: $21.24 per share

- 2017-02: $22.74 per share

- 2017-03: $24.32 per share

- 2017-04: $26.77 per share

- 2017-05: $27.03 per share

- 2017-06: $26.45 per share

- 2017-07: $28.10 per share

- 2017-08: $29.53 per share

- 2017-09: $30.10 per share

- 2017-10: $31.58 per share

- 2017-11: $31.31 per share

- 2017-12: $33.47 per share

- 2018-01: $35.75 per share

- 2018-02: $32.80 per share

- 2018-03: $29.62 per share

- 2018-04: $28.84 per share

- 2018-05: $31.32 per share

- 2018-06: $31.87 per share

- 2018-07: $35.50 per share

- 2018-08: $34.53 per share

- 2018-09: $34.55 per share

- 2018-10: $29.42 per share

- 2018-11: $28.19 per share

- 2018-12: $24.54 per share

- 2019-01: $29.28 per share

- 2019-02: $29.30 per share

- 2019-03: $28.25 per share

- 2019-04: $32.69 per share

- 2019-05: $29.41 per share

- 2019-06: $34.30 per share

- 2019-07: $33.00 per share

- 2019-08: $37.73 per share

- 2019-09: $37.82 per share

- 2019-10: $41.16 per share

- 2019-11: $43.80 per share

- 2019-12: $47.71 per share

- 2020-01: $47.32 per share

- 2020-02: $41.66 per share

- 2020-03: $33.50 per share

- 2020-04: $40.49 per share

- 2020-05: $47.60 per share

- 2020-06: $49.92 per share

- 2020-07: $49.10 per share

- 2020-08: $46.87 per share

- 2020-09: $44.75 per share

- 2020-10: $36.86 per share

- 2020-11: $43.62 per share

- 2020-12: $48.98 per share

- 2021-01: $45.94 per share

- 2021-02: $49.46 per share

- 2021-03: $47.01 per share

- 2021-04: $55.37 per share

- 2021-05: $57.34 per share

- 2021-06: $62.20 per share

- 2021-07: $58.86 per share

- 2021-08: $59.78 per share

- 2021-09: $61.59 per share

- 2021-10: $76.95 per share

- 2021-11: $70.78 per share

- 2021-12: $72.43 per share

- 2022-01: $70.00 per share

- 2022-02: $65.26 per share

- 2022-03: $61.99 per share

- 2022-04: $49.76 per share

- 2022-05: $57.64 per share

- 2022-06: $48.48 per share

- 2022-07: $57.10 per share

- 2022-08: $55.58 per share

- 2022-09: $46.50 per share

- 2022-10: $55.36 per share

- 2022-11: $69.39 per share

- 2022-12: $63.79 per share

- 2023-01: $70.78 per share

- 2023-02: $70.90 per share

- 2023-03: $63.16 per share

- 2023-04: $63.39 per share

- 2023-05: $66.85 per share

- 2023-06: $76.81 per share

- 2023-07: $81.71 per share

- 2023-08: $87.34 per share

- 2023-09: $89.76 per share

- 2023-10: $77.44 per share

- 2023-11: $92.00 per share

- 2023-12: $93.19 per share

- 2024-01: $100.40 per share

- 2024-02: $111.80 per share

- 2024-03: $112.45 per share

- 2024-04: $108.38 per share

- 2024-05: $116.16 per share

- 2024-06: $118.07 per share

- 2024-07: $125.31 per share

- 2024-08: $115.73 per share

- 2024-09: $124.91 per share

- 2024-10: $143.26 per share

- 2024-11: $175.03 per share

- 2024-12: $165.16 per share

- 2025-01: $170.98 per share

- 2025-02: $149.27 per share

- 2025-03: $136.94 per share

- 2025-04: $136.48 per share

- 2025-05: $130.69 per share

- 2025-06: $141.87 per share

- 2025-07: $145.32 per share

- 2025-08: $136.23 per share

- 2025-09: $133.27 per share

- 2025-10: $124.31 per share

- 2025-11: $131.85 per share

- 2025-12: $144.76 per share

- 2026-01: $134.54 per share

- 2026-02: $104.60 per share

- 2026-03: $111.42 per share

- 2026-04: $128.72 per share

- 2026-05: $128.71 per share

- 2026-06: $118.31 per share

- 2026-07: $125.59 per share

- 2026-08: $136.58 per share

- 2026-09: $116.06 per share

- 2026-10: $116.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $21.48 per share, central $23.83 per share, high $26.96 per share

- FY2017: low $33.85 per share, central $37.95 per share, high $43.41 per share

- FY2018: low $12.96 per share, central $17.37 per share, high $19.94 per share

- FY2019: low $36.98 per share, central $44.19 per share, high $50.43 per share

- FY2020: low $25.34 per share, central $28.35 per share, high $32.35 per share

- FY2021: low $74.90 per share, central $106.40 per share, high $124.74 per share

- FY2022: low $191.10 per share, central $193.63 per share, high $197.00 per share

- FY2023: low $395.15 per share, central $475.24 per share, high $523.82 per share

- FY2024: low $360.13 per share, central $413.28 per share, high $444.23 per share

- FY2025: low $414.12 per share, central $478.82 per share, high $516.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:09.762Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411494/000141149423000010/apo-20221231.htm); period 2022-12-31, filed 2023-03-01.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.