# Antero Resources (AR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:34.082Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $36.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $36.77 per share, central $41.79 per share, high $48.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:34.082Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 3.96×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.27×

- FY2020: -0.31×

- FY2021: 0.00×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 0.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.9%

- FY2017: 5.7%

- FY2018: 0.4%

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: 14.0%

- FY2023: 2.9%

- FY2025: 5.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.09×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -2.38×

- FY2022: 1.30×

- FY2023: 3.94×

- FY2024: 12.60×

- FY2025: 1.58×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 1.94 to 0.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Market cap gain: $3.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $722M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -13.0%

- Per-share value change: -$1.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.94

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.12

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $335M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.88

- FY2017: $1.94

- FY2018: -$1.26

- FY2019: -$1.11

- FY2020: -$4.65

- FY2021: -$0.61

- FY2022: $5.69

- FY2023: $0.64

- FY2024: $0.18

- FY2025: $2.03

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.85×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.57×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -14.7%

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: -16.0%

- FY2019: -9.5%

- FY2020: -15.2%

- FY2021: -13.3%

- FY2022: -8.4%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -7.0%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.8% a year for ten years · "Lower NatGas Prices Drag Antero Resources (AR) Shares" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +12%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:19.291Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Antero Resources Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/antero-resources-q1-earnings-miss-144100522.html))

- 2025-07-22: Lower NatGas Prices Drag Antero Resources (AR) Shares ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lower-natgas-prices-drag-antero-194127174.html))

- 2025-08-18: Gas producers Antero, EQT, Range, Expand Energy cut at Roth as gas oversupply returns ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486703-gas-producers-antero-eqt-range-expand-energy-cut-at-roth-as-gas-oversupply-returns?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-09-23: Antero Resources raised at Citi on confidence in advantaged pricing, strong well productivity ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4498067-antero-resources-raised-at-citi-on-confidence-in-advantaged-pricing-strong-well-productivity?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-04: Antero Resources (AR) Jumps 7% as Winter Chill Heats Up NatGas Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/antero-resources-ar-jumps-7-111850171.html))

- 2026-08-01: Antero Resources (AR) Could Be 25% Undervalued On Higher 2026 Production Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/antero-resources-ar-could-25-031623239.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $2.8B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $3.6B 

- FY2020: $3.1B 

- FY2021: $5.8B 

- FY2022: $8.3B 

- FY2023: $4.3B 

- FY2024: $4.1B 

- FY2025: $5.0B 

- FY2026: $5.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 22.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: 23.8% 

- FY2018: 29.5% 

- FY2019: 8.5% 

- FY2021: 38.9% 

- FY2022: 55.3% 

- FY2023: 14.3% 

- FY2024: 7.9% 

- FY2025: 22.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 5013610000; grossProfit 1108250000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.9% to 22.1% during 2023–25; it earns 0.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 7.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.06920808703194281],[2017,0.05715310148667427],[2018,0.004407710089199468],[2019,-0.047236740612979215],[2020,-0.053805822094069436],[2021,0.0012802230552351312],[2022,0.14025550881054774],[2023,0.02859848795794936],[2025,0.05037451159280214]]; median 0.004407710089199468. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 136.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 107548000; upkeep 827220000; owner earnings 615070000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17485489456484626.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 168037000; owner earnings 410463000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 114761000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 444169000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 163322000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2428104000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 167517000; owner earnings 780980000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 101924000; owner earnings 721129000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 387782000; owner earnings 1000203000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,75082000],[2017,152352000],[2018,267271000],[2019,157956000],[2020,171022000],[2021,136609000],[2022,125138000],[2023,125138000],[2024,125197000],[2025,125255000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 136404000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.409 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.024529106557502678. Price 36.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.4877965149575223 → FY2025 3.2020738824629196. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.47 per share

- 2016-11: $24.49 per share

- 2016-12: $23.65 per share

- 2017-01: $24.41 per share

- 2017-02: $23.98 per share

- 2017-03: $22.81 per share

- 2017-04: $21.19 per share

- 2017-05: $20.57 per share

- 2017-06: $21.61 per share

- 2017-07: $20.62 per share

- 2017-08: $19.69 per share

- 2017-09: $19.90 per share

- 2017-10: $19.40 per share

- 2017-11: $19.00 per share

- 2017-12: $19.00 per share

- 2018-01: $19.43 per share

- 2018-02: $18.81 per share

- 2018-03: $19.85 per share

- 2018-04: $19.00 per share

- 2018-05: $19.11 per share

- 2018-06: $21.35 per share

- 2018-07: $20.54 per share

- 2018-08: $18.51 per share

- 2018-09: $17.71 per share

- 2018-10: $15.89 per share

- 2018-11: $13.13 per share

- 2018-12: $9.39 per share

- 2019-01: $10.06 per share

- 2019-02: $8.66 per share

- 2019-03: $8.83 per share

- 2019-04: $7.25 per share

- 2019-05: $6.57 per share

- 2019-06: $5.53 per share

- 2019-07: $4.61 per share

- 2019-08: $3.17 per share

- 2019-09: $3.02 per share

- 2019-10: $2.50 per share

- 2019-11: $1.99 per share

- 2019-12: $2.85 per share

- 2020-01: $1.85 per share

- 2020-02: $1.60 per share

- 2020-03: $0.71 per share

- 2020-04: $2.98 per share

- 2020-05: $2.99 per share

- 2020-06: $2.54 per share

- 2020-07: $2.96 per share

- 2020-08: $3.22 per share

- 2020-09: $2.75 per share

- 2020-10: $3.40 per share

- 2020-11: $3.92 per share

- 2020-12: $5.45 per share

- 2021-01: $6.94 per share

- 2021-02: $9.00 per share

- 2021-03: $10.20 per share

- 2021-04: $9.02 per share

- 2021-05: $12.91 per share

- 2021-06: $15.03 per share

- 2021-07: $13.60 per share

- 2021-08: $13.72 per share

- 2021-09: $18.81 per share

- 2021-10: $19.87 per share

- 2021-11: $17.56 per share

- 2021-12: $17.50 per share

- 2022-01: $19.53 per share

- 2022-02: $22.93 per share

- 2022-03: $30.53 per share

- 2022-04: $35.20 per share

- 2022-05: $42.88 per share

- 2022-06: $30.65 per share

- 2022-07: $39.64 per share

- 2022-08: $40.08 per share

- 2022-09: $30.53 per share

- 2022-10: $36.66 per share

- 2022-11: $36.55 per share

- 2022-12: $30.99 per share

- 2023-01: $28.84 per share

- 2023-02: $26.20 per share

- 2023-03: $23.09 per share

- 2023-04: $22.99 per share

- 2023-05: $20.41 per share

- 2023-06: $23.03 per share

- 2023-07: $26.75 per share

- 2023-08: $27.67 per share

- 2023-09: $25.38 per share

- 2023-10: $29.44 per share

- 2023-11: $23.63 per share

- 2023-12: $22.68 per share

- 2024-01: $22.34 per share

- 2024-02: $25.70 per share

- 2024-03: $29.00 per share

- 2024-04: $34.01 per share

- 2024-05: $35.63 per share

- 2024-06: $32.63 per share

- 2024-07: $29.02 per share

- 2024-08: $26.99 per share

- 2024-09: $28.65 per share

- 2024-10: $25.88 per share

- 2024-11: $32.69 per share

- 2024-12: $35.05 per share

- 2025-01: $37.32 per share

- 2025-02: $36.70 per share

- 2025-03: $40.44 per share

- 2025-04: $34.83 per share

- 2025-05: $37.45 per share

- 2025-06: $40.28 per share

- 2025-07: $34.93 per share

- 2025-08: $31.92 per share

- 2025-09: $33.56 per share

- 2025-10: $30.91 per share

- 2025-11: $36.43 per share

- 2025-12: $34.46 per share

- 2026-01: $36.37 per share

- 2026-02: $36.81 per share

- 2026-03: $42.44 per share

- 2026-04: $39.26 per share

- 2026-05: $35.75 per share

- 2026-06: $35.14 per share

- 2026-07: $36.14 per share

- 2026-08: $38.48 per share

- 2026-09: $33.39 per share

- 2026-10: $36.44 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $21.26 per share, central $24.19 per share, high $28.09 per share

- FY2018: low $28.69 per share, central $32.57 per share, high $37.74 per share

- FY2019: low $14.64 per share, central $16.66 per share, high $19.35 per share

- FY2021: low $15.76 per share, central $17.93 per share, high $20.82 per share

- FY2022: low $26.28 per share, central $37.55 per share, high $44.11 per share

- FY2023: low $16.91 per share, central $19.24 per share, high $22.34 per share

- FY2024: low $25.15 per share, central $28.62 per share, high $33.23 per share

- FY2025: low $32.37 per share, central $36.79 per share, high $42.66 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1433270/000110465926013386/ar-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.