# Arrow Electronics (ARW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ARW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:35.746Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $220.17 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $233.30 per share, central $265.47 per share, high $308.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value $265.47 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:35.746Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.38×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.00×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.7%

- FY2017: 12.0%

- FY2018: 16.0%

- FY2019: 1.6%

- FY2020: 14.2%

- FY2021: 21.5%

- FY2022: 22.1%

- FY2023: 15.6%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 10.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.10×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.18×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.7% vs 10.3%

- Per-share earnings: 5.20 to 10.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -7.8%

- Market cap gain: -$804M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -7.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.7%

- Per-share value change: $5.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.20

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $10.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 6.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $329M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.68

- FY2017: $4.48

- FY2018: $8.10

- FY2019: -$2.44

- FY2020: $7.43

- FY2021: $15.10

- FY2022: $21.80

- FY2023: $15.84

- FY2024: $7.29

- FY2025: $10.93

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 1.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.37×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 43.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.11×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.33×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.1%

- FY2017: 1.7%

- FY2018: 2.5%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: 3.5%

- FY2022: 6.7%

- FY2023: 0.9%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: 1.7%

## Holders

- [Edgar Wachenheim](https://gigainvestors.com/GA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years · sales +10.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:19.664Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: ARW Q1 Earnings Call: Revenue Beat Offset by Cautious Guidance Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arw-q1-earnings-call-revenue-194622821.html))

- 2025-07-31: Arrow Electronics Q2 2025 slides: Revenue jumps 10% but margins compress ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/arrow-electronics-q2-2025-slides-revenue-jumps-10-but-margins-compress-93CH-4164295))

- 2025-08-13: ARW Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Headwinds and Market Recovery Weigh on Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arw-q2-deep-dive-margin-035438494.html))

- 2026-02-06: ARW Q4 Deep Dive: Value-Added Services and Gradual Demand Recovery Drive Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arw-q4-deep-dive-value-053555832.html))

- 2026-05-13: Arrow Electronics Demand, Backlog Improve but Asia Limits Margins, BofA Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arrow-electronics-demand-backlog-improve-150610583.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $24B 

- FY2017: $27B 

- FY2018: $30B 

- FY2019: $29B 

- FY2020: $29B 

- FY2021: $34B 

- FY2022: $37B 

- FY2023: $33B 

- FY2024: $28B 

- FY2025: $31B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 11.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 13.2% 

- FY2017: 12.5% 

- FY2018: 12.5% 

- FY2019: 11.4% 

- FY2020: 11.1% 

- FY2021: 12.2% 

- FY2022: 13.0% 

- FY2023: 12.5% 

- FY2024: 11.8% 

- FY2025: 11.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in electronics & computer distribution; annual sales are USD 30.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 30852935000; grossProfit 3466719000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ARW.US: Arrow Electronics, Inc. sources and engineers technology for manufacturers, service providers, and users of enterprise computing solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in two segments, Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions. The Global Components segment markets and distributes electronic components, including semiconductor products and related services; interconnect, passive, and electromechanical products comprising capacitors, resistors, potentiometers, power supplies, relays, switches, and connectors; and computing and memory products, as well as other products and services. Its Global Enterprise Computing Solutions segment offers computing solutions, such as datacenter, cloud, security, and analytics solutions, as well as engineering and integration support, warehousing and logistics, marketing resources, and authorized hardware and software training services. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, value-added resellers, managed service providers, contract manufacturers, and other commercial customers. Arrow Electronics, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Centennial, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11.2% to 12.5% during 2023–25; it earns 14.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.14723049536812885],[2017,0.11976490858460132],[2018,0.16040846136883832],[2019,0.015691440918884247],[2020,0.14226109916327173],[2021,0.21466588338607015],[2022,0.22145432851256344],[2023,0.15644135436554402],[2024,0.08946856963059467],[2025,0.10279917602770958]]; median 0.1447457972657003. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 13% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.12188887681643465],[2022,0.13028148963504402],[2023,0.12532101856035802]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 161.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 5500000; upkeep 159195000; owner earnings 522750000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.010521281683405069.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 50350000; upkeep 153599000; owner earnings 401962000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12526059677282927.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 155336000; owner earnings 747243000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 124298000; owner earnings 649198000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 83051000; owner earnings 1220266000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 78836000; owner earnings 1535430000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 83285000; owner earnings 1001336000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 92703000; owner earnings 462365000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 101254000; owner earnings 607762000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,16911000],[2020,21037000],[2021,46982000],[2022,0],[2023,17010000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 161669000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ARW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.526 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.033205823352782826. Price 220.17; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.211629705495056 → FY2025 11.630695627212708. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $61.12 per share

- 2016-11: $68.27 per share

- 2016-12: $71.30 per share

- 2017-01: $73.52 per share

- 2017-02: $72.20 per share

- 2017-03: $73.41 per share

- 2017-04: $70.50 per share

- 2017-05: $75.59 per share

- 2017-06: $78.42 per share

- 2017-07: $81.29 per share

- 2017-08: $79.43 per share

- 2017-09: $80.41 per share

- 2017-10: $83.59 per share

- 2017-11: $80.73 per share

- 2017-12: $80.41 per share

- 2018-01: $81.34 per share

- 2018-02: $81.58 per share

- 2018-03: $77.02 per share

- 2018-04: $74.74 per share

- 2018-05: $74.12 per share

- 2018-06: $75.28 per share

- 2018-07: $75.84 per share

- 2018-08: $77.53 per share

- 2018-09: $73.72 per share

- 2018-10: $67.71 per share

- 2018-11: $76.97 per share

- 2018-12: $68.95 per share

- 2019-01: $75.95 per share

- 2019-02: $79.70 per share

- 2019-03: $77.06 per share

- 2019-04: $84.51 per share

- 2019-05: $62.66 per share

- 2019-06: $71.27 per share

- 2019-07: $72.61 per share

- 2019-08: $69.20 per share

- 2019-09: $74.58 per share

- 2019-10: $79.28 per share

- 2019-11: $79.64 per share

- 2019-12: $84.74 per share

- 2020-01: $75.94 per share

- 2020-02: $67.06 per share

- 2020-03: $51.87 per share

- 2020-04: $62.92 per share

- 2020-05: $69.08 per share

- 2020-06: $68.69 per share

- 2020-07: $71.62 per share

- 2020-08: $78.56 per share

- 2020-09: $78.66 per share

- 2020-10: $77.89 per share

- 2020-11: $91.65 per share

- 2020-12: $97.30 per share

- 2021-01: $97.63 per share

- 2021-02: $100.26 per share

- 2021-03: $110.82 per share

- 2021-04: $114.07 per share

- 2021-05: $120.33 per share

- 2021-06: $113.83 per share

- 2021-07: $118.57 per share

- 2021-08: $121.22 per share

- 2021-09: $112.29 per share

- 2021-10: $115.75 per share

- 2021-11: $121.65 per share

- 2021-12: $134.27 per share

- 2022-01: $124.00 per share

- 2022-02: $121.88 per share

- 2022-03: $118.63 per share

- 2022-04: $117.86 per share

- 2022-05: $120.65 per share

- 2022-06: $112.09 per share

- 2022-07: $128.17 per share

- 2022-08: $104.81 per share

- 2022-09: $92.19 per share

- 2022-10: $101.26 per share

- 2022-11: $108.74 per share

- 2022-12: $104.57 per share

- 2023-01: $117.49 per share

- 2023-02: $117.99 per share

- 2023-03: $124.87 per share

- 2023-04: $114.43 per share

- 2023-05: $126.64 per share

- 2023-06: $143.23 per share

- 2023-07: $142.54 per share

- 2023-08: $133.43 per share

- 2023-09: $125.24 per share

- 2023-10: $113.41 per share

- 2023-11: $118.56 per share

- 2023-12: $122.25 per share

- 2024-01: $111.15 per share

- 2024-02: $117.50 per share

- 2024-03: $129.46 per share

- 2024-04: $127.67 per share

- 2024-05: $131.31 per share

- 2024-06: $120.76 per share

- 2024-07: $123.69 per share

- 2024-08: $135.08 per share

- 2024-09: $132.83 per share

- 2024-10: $118.67 per share

- 2024-11: $120.16 per share

- 2024-12: $113.12 per share

- 2025-01: $116.55 per share

- 2025-02: $108.07 per share

- 2025-03: $103.83 per share

- 2025-04: $111.36 per share

- 2025-05: $118.38 per share

- 2025-06: $127.43 per share

- 2025-07: $116.00 per share

- 2025-08: $126.33 per share

- 2025-09: $121.00 per share

- 2025-10: $111.55 per share

- 2025-11: $108.01 per share

- 2025-12: $110.18 per share

- 2026-01: $132.49 per share

- 2026-02: $152.16 per share

- 2026-03: $143.41 per share

- 2026-04: $187.83 per share

- 2026-05: $214.63 per share

- 2026-06: $213.41 per share

- 2026-07: $216.57 per share

- 2026-08: $204.43 per share

- 2026-09: $227.00 per share

- 2026-10: $220.17 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $68.82 per share, central $86.26 per share, high $100.60 per share

- FY2017: low $76.90 per share, central $93.37 per share, high $108.48 per share

- FY2018: low $99.73 per share, central $141.93 per share, high $166.69 per share

- FY2019: low $81.01 per share, central $92.18 per share, high $107.05 per share

- FY2020: low $94.33 per share, central $116.23 per share, high $135.56 per share

- FY2021: low $144.61 per share, central $206.58 per share, high $242.66 per share

- FY2022: low $194.16 per share, central $277.36 per share, high $325.81 per share

- FY2023: low $238.68 per share, central $340.96 per share, high $400.52 per share

- FY2024: low $171.59 per share, central $195.25 per share, high $226.75 per share

- FY2025: low $195.19 per share, central $222.10 per share, high $257.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7536/000110465926012765/arw-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.