# Ashmore Group (ASHM.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ASHM.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:04.770Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 223.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 177.35 per share, central GBX 193.77 per share, high GBX 215.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 193.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:04.770Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.60×

- FY2018: 0.64×

- FY2019: 0.62×

- FY2020: 0.63×

- FY2021: 0.61×

- FY2022: 0.60×

- FY2023: 0.35×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.40×

- FY2026: 0.71×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 70.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 55.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -10.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 83.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 58.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 56.7%

- FY2018: 55.2%

- FY2019: 55.3%

- FY2020: 64.1%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 77.6%

- FY2025: >100%

- FY2026: 24.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 435M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 450M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 20.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 200.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 129.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.02×

- FY2026: 0.80×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 55.3% vs 77.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.21 to 0.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 99M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -5.4%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.27

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 211M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 55.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 77.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.24

- FY2018: GBP 0.21

- FY2019: GBP 0.25

- FY2020: GBP 0.26

- FY2021: GBP 0.34

- FY2022: GBP 0.13

- FY2023: GBP 0.12

- FY2024: GBP 0.14

- FY2025: GBP 0.12

- FY2026: GBP 0.15

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 35.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.61×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.21×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.8%

- FY2018: -0.9%

- FY2019: -1.0%

- FY2020: -2.0%

- FY2021: 8.2%

- FY2022: -6.3%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: 0.5%

- FY2025: 3.6%

- FY2026: 3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Oct 2021 · sales -3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.787Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -3.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-09-22.

- FY2017: GBP 253M 

- FY2018: GBP 277M 

- FY2019: GBP 303M 

- FY2020: GBP 323M 

- FY2021: GBP 425M 

- FY2022: GBP 200M 

- FY2023: GBP 219M 

- FY2024: GBP 187M 

- FY2025: GBP 144M 

- FY2026: GBP 140M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 97.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-09-22.

- FY2017: 73.2% 

- FY2018: 73.7% 

- FY2019: 72.2% 

- FY2020: 74.4% 

- FY2021: 81.1% 

- FY2022: 63.2% 

- FY2023: 69.8% 

- FY2024: 54.4% 

- FY2025: 83.5% 

- FY2026: 97.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are GBP 139.9 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-09-22); FY2026: revenue 139900000; grossProfit 136300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.4% to 97.4% during 2024–26; it earns 70.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 54.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 83.5%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-09-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 97.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.5667927915949198],[2018,0.5521822980789796],[2019,0.552809416542403],[2020,0.6407713976902324],[2021,8.469231897162688],[2022,7.062667629461523],[2023,1.1157822746107737],[2024,0.7760861605631661],[2025,2.298588090853284],[2026,0.24109699948943447]]; median 0.7084287791266992. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 13.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 400000; owner earnings 172700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 200000; owner earnings 156200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 800000; owner earnings 182600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1000000; owner earnings 182460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 700000; owner earnings 240240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 500000; owner earnings 89500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 400000; owner earnings 84940000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 800000; owner earnings 94720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 200000; owner earnings 83180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-09-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 20800000; owner earnings 82740000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,116600000],[2018,117400000],[2019,118300000],[2020,120000000],[2021,118300000],[2022,118500000],[2023,118400000],[2024,119900000],[2025,120100000],[2026,119800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-09-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 13900000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 38.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ASHM.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 38.393 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03529075994502874. Price 223.4; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.18726117300228917 → FY2026 0.11935053919786744. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 351.10 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 274.10 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 282.70 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 356.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 353.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 347.80 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 350.70 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 353.20 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 360.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 368.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 339.20 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 384.90 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 375.20 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 405.10 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 430.40 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 412.80 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 380.60 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 411.80 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 368.20 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 373.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 364.60 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 355.60 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 364.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 352.20 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 371.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 365.60 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 404.20 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 422.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 427.20 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 459.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 472.40 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 509.50 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 536.50 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 451.20 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 506.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 465.60 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 476.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 518.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 543.50 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 462.20 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 356.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 379.40 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 428.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 417.20 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 390.40 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 421.60 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 358.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 356.20 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 421.80 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 431.20 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 451.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 412.40 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 391.40 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 400.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 396.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 385.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 380.20 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 399.20 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 340.60 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 337.40 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 299.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 291.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 281.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 252.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 232.60 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 222.80 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 247.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 221.80 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 215.80 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 203.20 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 197.10 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 206.40 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 226.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 239.40 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 266.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 269.60 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 238.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 243.20 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 224.60 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 208.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 206.40 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 194.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 187.80 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 169.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 177.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 222.80 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 212.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 207.20 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 195.70 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 193.40 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 195.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 170.10 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 172.20 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 174.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 205.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 210.80 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 159.90 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 170.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 148.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 149.10 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 144.70 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 154.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 156.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 174.80 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 178.40 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 178.20 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 187.90 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 162.90 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 176.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 236.60 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 238.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 211.40 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 207.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 208.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 201.20 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 206.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 224.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 217.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 223.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 326.20 per share, central GBX 357.49 per share, high GBX 399.13 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 334.07 per share, central GBX 367.07 per share, high GBX 411.00 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 387.15 per share, central GBX 425.72 per share, high GBX 477.08 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 375.66 per share, central GBX 417.50 per share, high GBX 473.20 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 487.96 per share, central GBX 539.42 per share, high GBX 607.94 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 296.40 per share, central GBX 320.64 per share, high GBX 352.90 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 307.78 per share, central GBX 334.96 per share, high GBX 371.15 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 257.31 per share, central GBX 277.98 per share, high GBX 305.49 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 217.14 per share, central GBX 233.27 per share, high GBX 254.76 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 166.49 per share, central GBX 181.91 per share, high GBX 202.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:46:48.739Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12/2026-06-30/ESEF/GB/0/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30/reports/549300U3L59WB4YI2X12-2026-06-30-T01.xhtml); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-09-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Ashmore Group

ASHM · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 223.40
Buy up to: GBX 193.77
Expected / yr: 8.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 24.1% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 60.5%
Worst year: 30.6%
Latest · 2026: 70.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 70.8% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 55.2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 70.8%
Worst year: 24.1%
Latest · 2026: 24.1%

New investment earned 3.7% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 200.5% of sales (limit 10%) to 129.3% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.97×
Annual median: 1.01×
Latest · 2026: 0.80×

Per-share value fell from 0.21 to 0.14, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.18
Worst year: GBP 0.12
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.15

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 3.8% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -0.2%
Worst year: 8.2%
Latest · 2026: 3.8%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 54.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.13 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 351.10; 2016-11 · Price GBX 274.10; 2016-12 · Price GBX 282.70; 2017-01 · Price GBX 310.00 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-02 · Price GBX 356.00 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-03 · Price GBX 353.50 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-04 · Price GBX 347.80 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-05 · Price GBX 350.70 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-06 · Price GBX 353.20 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-07 · Price GBX 360.00 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-08 · Price GBX 368.50 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-09 · Price GBX 339.20 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-10 · Price GBX 384.90 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-11 · Price GBX 375.20 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2017-12 · Price GBX 405.10 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2018-01 · Price GBX 430.40 · Value 357.49 · Buy at or below 357.49; 2018-02 · Price GBX 412.80 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-03 · Price GBX 380.60 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-04 · Price GBX 411.80 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-05 · Price GBX 368.20 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-06 · Price GBX 373.00 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-07 · Price GBX 364.60 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-08 · Price GBX 355.60 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-09 · Price GBX 364.00 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-10 · Price GBX 352.20 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-11 · Price GBX 371.00 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2018-12 · Price GBX 365.60 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2019-01 · Price GBX 404.20 · Value 367.07 · Buy at or below 367.07; 2019-02 · Price GBX 422.00 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-03 · Price GBX 427.20 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-04 · Price GBX 459.00 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-05 · Price GBX 472.40 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-06 · Price GBX 509.50 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-07 · Price GBX 536.50 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-08 · Price GBX 451.20 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-09 · Price GBX 506.00 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-10 · Price GBX 465.60 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-11 · Price GBX 476.00 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2019-12 · Price GBX 518.00 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2020-01 · Price GBX 543.50 · Value 425.72 · Buy at or below 425.72; 2020-02 · Price GBX 462.20 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-03 · Price GBX 356.80 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-04 · Price GBX 379.40 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-05 · Price GBX 428.60 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-06 · Price GBX 417.20 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-07 · Price GBX 390.40 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-08 · Price GBX 421.60 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-09 · Price GBX 358.20 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-10 · Price GBX 356.20 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-11 · Price GBX 421.80 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2020-12 · Price GBX 431.20 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2021-01 · Price GBX 451.00 · Value 417.50 · Buy at or below 417.50; 2021-02 · Price GBX 412.40 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-03 · Price GBX 391.40 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-04 · Price GBX 400.00 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-05 · Price GBX 396.20 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-06 · Price GBX 385.00 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-07 · Price GBX 380.20 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-08 · Price GBX 399.20 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-09 · Price GBX 340.60 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-10 · Price GBX 337.40 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-11 · Price GBX 299.00 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2021-12 · Price GBX 291.00 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2022-01 · Price GBX 281.80 · Value 539.42 · Buy at or below 539.42; 2022-02 · Price GBX 252.00 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-03 · Price GBX 232.60 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-04 · Price GBX 222.80 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-05 · Price GBX 247.20 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-06 · Price GBX 221.80 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-07 · Price GBX 215.80 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-08 · Price GBX 203.20 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-09 · Price GBX 197.10 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-10 · Price GBX 206.40 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-11 · Price GBX 226.00 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2022-12 · Price GBX 239.40 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2023-01 · Price GBX 266.20 · Value 320.64 · Buy at or below 320.64; 2023-02 · Price GBX 269.60 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-03 · Price GBX 238.60 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-04 · Price GBX 243.20 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-05 · Price GBX 224.60 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-06 · Price GBX 208.00 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-07 · Price GBX 206.40 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-08 · Price GBX 194.00 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-09 · Price GBX 187.80 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-10 · Price GBX 169.50 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-11 · Price GBX 177.20 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2023-12 · Price GBX 222.80 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2024-01 · Price GBX 212.20 · Value 334.96 · Buy at or below 334.96; 2024-02 · Price GBX 207.20 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-03 · Price GBX 195.70 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-04 · Price GBX 193.40 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-05 · Price GBX 195.00 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-06 · Price GBX 170.10 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-07 · Price GBX 172.20 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-08 · Price GBX 174.80 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-09 · Price GBX 205.00 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-10 · Price GBX 210.80 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-11 · Price GBX 175.00 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2024-12 · Price GBX 159.90 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2025-01 · Price GBX 170.00 · Value 277.98 · Buy at or below 277.98; 2025-02 · Price GBX 148.50 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-03 · Price GBX 149.10 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-04 · Price GBX 144.70 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-05 · Price GBX 154.60 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-06 · Price GBX 156.50 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-07 · Price GBX 174.80 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-08 · Price GBX 178.40 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-09 · Price GBX 178.20 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-10 · Price GBX 187.90 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-11 · Price GBX 162.90 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2025-12 · Price GBX 176.50 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2026-01 · Price GBX 236.60 · Value 233.27 · Buy at or below 233.27; 2026-02 · Price GBX 238.00 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-03 · Price GBX 211.40 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-04 · Price GBX 207.60 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-05 · Price GBX 208.00 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-06 · Price GBX 201.20 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-07 · Price GBX 206.40 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-08 · Price GBX 224.40 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-09 · Price GBX 217.00 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-10 · Price GBX 223.40 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91; 2026-10 · Price GBX 223.40 · Value 181.91 · Buy at or below 181.91

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 177.35 – GBX 215.64
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 193.77
Discount to value	1 − 223.40 / 193.77 = -15.3%
Return / year	About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 10.90/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 58.20/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 140M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 83M

Owner earnings

Operating margin70.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 365M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares693M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·