# Astec Industries (ASTE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ASTE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:38.026Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $38.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $19.93 per share, central $22.90 per share, high $26.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value $22.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:38.026Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.9% at the stated quote. About 6.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: -0.06×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 26.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.3%

- FY2018: -10.1%

- FY2019: 4.9%

- FY2020: 9.1%

- FY2021: 4.2%

- FY2022: 0.8%

- FY2023: 6.2%

- FY2024: 2.4%

- FY2025: 5.7%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 4.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $109M

- Net income, five-year total: $92M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 39.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.64×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 2.47×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 5.7%

- Per-share earnings: 1.63 to 1.47 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: -$564M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $32M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.3%

- Per-share value change: -$0.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.47

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.42

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $252M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $193M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.38

- FY2017: $1.63

- FY2018: -$2.64

- FY2019: $0.98

- FY2020: $2.01

- FY2021: $0.69

- FY2022: -$0.00

- FY2023: $1.47

- FY2024: $0.19

- FY2025: $1.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 11.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.35×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.4%

- FY2017: -0.5%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -11.3%

- FY2020: -11.3%

- FY2021: 0.9%

- FY2022: 7.3%

- FY2023: 0.5%

- FY2024: -1.8%

- FY2025: -1.7%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 44% since Dec 2021 · "ASTE Cuts 2026 EBITDA Outlook as Asphalt Order Delays Test Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +10.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:20.158Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: Astec Industries stock soars as profit surges, TerraSource deal bolsters outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4479778-astec-industries-stock-soars-as-profit-surges-terrasource-deal-bolsters-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-07: ASTE Cuts 2026 EBITDA Outlook as Asphalt Order Delays Test Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aste-cuts-2026-ebitda-outlook-164300951.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.2B 

- FY2019: $1.2B 

- FY2020: $1.0B 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.3B 

- FY2023: $1.3B 

- FY2024: $1.3B 

- FY2025: $1.4B 

- FY2026: $1.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 26%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 20.5% 

- FY2018: 11.4% 

- FY2019: 20.5% 

- FY2020: 23.2% 

- FY2021: 22.8% 

- FY2022: 20.7% 

- FY2023: 24.7% 

- FY2024: 25.1% 

- FY2025: 26.5% 

- FY2026: 26.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 1.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 1410400000; grossProfit 374200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); ASTE.US: Astec Industries, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services equipment and components used primarily in road building and related construction activities worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions. The Infrastructure Solutions segment offers asphalt plants, cold central plant recycles systems, and soil remediation plants; concrete batch plants, liquid asphalt terminals, and thermal fluid heaters; asphalt pavers, material transfer vehicles, and milling machines; and industrial automation controls and telematics platforms, as well as engineering and environmental permitting, various plants components, polymer plants, heat recovery units, industrial and asphalt burners and systems, wood chippers and grinders, and blower trucks and trailers,. The Materials Solutions segment offers jaw, cone, heavy-duty, and mining-application crushers; horizontal and vertical shaft impactors; incline, multi-frequency and high frequency, horizontal, and dewatering screens; washing and classifying plants, fines recovery systems, and water clarification systems; radial and telescoping conveyors, pugmills, truck unloaders, hopper feeders ship loaders and unloaders, and bulk receptions feeders; and Rock breaker systems, hydraulic breakers, compactors, and pulverizers. It provides its products to asphalt or concrete producers; highway and heavy equipment contractors; utility contractors; sand and gravel producers; construction, demolition, recycle and crushing contractors; forestry and environmental recycling contractors; mine and quarry operators; port and inland terminal authorities; power stations; and domestic and foreign government agencies. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.7% to 26.5% during 2023–25; it earns 4.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 24.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.0630159603252537],[2018,-0.10147822365999982],[2019,0.04900498141738231],[2020,0.09144276360352224],[2021,0.042152086422368146],[2022,0.008088601294176207],[2023,0.0615915377915766],[2024,0.023569865582994686],[2025,0.05658623823754821],[2026,0.04170404990923697]]; median 0.04557853391987523. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 9.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 10.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 2554000; upkeep 24813000; owner earnings 55159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.046302507297086605.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 20046000; owner earnings 43551000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 23360000; owner earnings 25140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 15400000; owner earnings 57500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 20100000; owner earnings 25900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 8500000; upkeep 25600000; owner earnings 33500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2537313432835821.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 20500000; owner earnings 10600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 3600000; upkeep 36300000; owner earnings 38800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09278350515463918.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Incremental return on capital 0.10724366967635388, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,9217000],[2017,9226000],[2018,9625000],[2019,9916000],[2020,10000000],[2021,10200000],[2022,11200000],[2023,11800000],[2024,11900000],[2025,11900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); ASTE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.192 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1114962318003524. Price 38.92; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5429498269896194 → FY2025 1.679616888045656. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $55.36 per share

- 2016-11: $66.30 per share

- 2016-12: $67.46 per share

- 2017-01: $69.98 per share

- 2017-02: $63.17 per share

- 2017-03: $61.50 per share

- 2017-04: $63.35 per share

- 2017-05: $55.97 per share

- 2017-06: $55.51 per share

- 2017-07: $50.27 per share

- 2017-08: $49.68 per share

- 2017-09: $56.01 per share

- 2017-10: $51.95 per share

- 2017-11: $55.37 per share

- 2017-12: $58.50 per share

- 2018-01: $62.40 per share

- 2018-02: $58.90 per share

- 2018-03: $55.18 per share

- 2018-04: $55.56 per share

- 2018-05: $58.51 per share

- 2018-06: $59.80 per share

- 2018-07: $49.13 per share

- 2018-08: $48.65 per share

- 2018-09: $50.41 per share

- 2018-10: $37.61 per share

- 2018-11: $35.67 per share

- 2018-12: $30.19 per share

- 2019-01: $37.02 per share

- 2019-02: $38.16 per share

- 2019-03: $37.76 per share

- 2019-04: $33.71 per share

- 2019-05: $29.43 per share

- 2019-06: $32.56 per share

- 2019-07: $32.69 per share

- 2019-08: $27.60 per share

- 2019-09: $31.10 per share

- 2019-10: $35.09 per share

- 2019-11: $37.46 per share

- 2019-12: $42.00 per share

- 2020-01: $41.24 per share

- 2020-02: $37.55 per share

- 2020-03: $34.97 per share

- 2020-04: $40.11 per share

- 2020-05: $42.48 per share

- 2020-06: $46.31 per share

- 2020-07: $44.49 per share

- 2020-08: $52.72 per share

- 2020-09: $54.25 per share

- 2020-10: $50.80 per share

- 2020-11: $58.00 per share

- 2020-12: $57.88 per share

- 2021-01: $59.47 per share

- 2021-02: $67.92 per share

- 2021-03: $75.42 per share

- 2021-04: $75.01 per share

- 2021-05: $68.53 per share

- 2021-06: $62.94 per share

- 2021-07: $61.31 per share

- 2021-08: $61.14 per share

- 2021-09: $53.81 per share

- 2021-10: $53.38 per share

- 2021-11: $62.68 per share

- 2021-12: $69.27 per share

- 2022-01: $63.29 per share

- 2022-02: $49.80 per share

- 2022-03: $43.00 per share

- 2022-04: $39.10 per share

- 2022-05: $46.77 per share

- 2022-06: $40.78 per share

- 2022-07: $49.13 per share

- 2022-08: $38.18 per share

- 2022-09: $31.19 per share

- 2022-10: $43.65 per share

- 2022-11: $44.24 per share

- 2022-12: $40.66 per share

- 2023-01: $44.14 per share

- 2023-02: $45.03 per share

- 2023-03: $41.25 per share

- 2023-04: $41.28 per share

- 2023-05: $36.86 per share

- 2023-06: $45.44 per share

- 2023-07: $49.40 per share

- 2023-08: $54.82 per share

- 2023-09: $47.11 per share

- 2023-10: $40.04 per share

- 2023-11: $31.09 per share

- 2023-12: $37.20 per share

- 2024-01: $35.60 per share

- 2024-02: $40.60 per share

- 2024-03: $43.71 per share

- 2024-04: $41.80 per share

- 2024-05: $32.49 per share

- 2024-06: $29.66 per share

- 2024-07: $35.09 per share

- 2024-08: $33.83 per share

- 2024-09: $31.94 per share

- 2024-10: $31.78 per share

- 2024-11: $38.61 per share

- 2024-12: $33.60 per share

- 2025-01: $34.91 per share

- 2025-02: $35.58 per share

- 2025-03: $34.45 per share

- 2025-04: $36.23 per share

- 2025-05: $39.29 per share

- 2025-06: $41.69 per share

- 2025-07: $39.66 per share

- 2025-08: $46.29 per share

- 2025-09: $48.13 per share

- 2025-10: $46.53 per share

- 2025-11: $44.26 per share

- 2025-12: $43.32 per share

- 2026-01: $48.72 per share

- 2026-02: $62.09 per share

- 2026-03: $53.84 per share

- 2026-04: $65.02 per share

- 2026-05: $50.36 per share

- 2026-06: $61.19 per share

- 2026-07: $50.66 per share

- 2026-08: $42.55 per share

- 2026-09: $40.24 per share

- 2026-10: $38.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.92 per share, central $29.00 per share, high $33.39 per share

- FY2017: low $22.00 per share, central $24.80 per share, high $28.52 per share

- FY2018: low $20.48 per share, central $23.28 per share, high $27.00 per share

- FY2019: low $23.87 per share, central $29.94 per share, high $34.77 per share

- FY2020: low $24.22 per share, central $26.70 per share, high $30.00 per share

- FY2021: low $17.61 per share, central $19.31 per share, high $21.58 per share

- FY2022: low $14.95 per share, central $16.76 per share, high $19.17 per share

- FY2023: low $17.07 per share, central $19.21 per share, high $22.01 per share

- FY2024: low $17.61 per share, central $19.64 per share, high $22.35 per share

- FY2025: low $18.05 per share, central $20.73 per share, high $23.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/792987/000079298726000011/aste-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.