# Allegheny Technologies (ATI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ATI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:39.874Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $189.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $36.98 per share, central $41.38 per share, high $47.24 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.38 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:39.874Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.3% at the stated quote. About 4.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 14.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.17×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: -0.44×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -18.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -18.1%

- FY2017: 4.1%

- FY2018: 13.8%

- FY2019: 14.8%

- FY2020: -85.6%

- FY2021: 6.5%

- FY2022: 15.2%

- FY2023: 18.1%

- FY2024: 17.1%

- FY2025: 16.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 128.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 34.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.85×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.1% vs 17.1%

- Per-share earnings: -3.52 to 2.74 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Market cap gain: $14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$808M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $6.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$3.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.74

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.05

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$140M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$5.97

- FY2017: -$0.83

- FY2018: $1.52

- FY2019: $1.72

- FY2020: -$12.43

- FY2021: $1.45

- FY2022: $2.14

- FY2023: $2.74

- FY2024: $2.51

- FY2025: $2.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.52×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.14×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.6%

- FY2017: -2.2%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: -43.1%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: 6.5%

- FY2024: -0.8%

- FY2025: -4.1%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.7% a year for ten years · "ATI’s (ATI) Record Backlog And Raised Guidance Signal Bigger Ambitions" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +5.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:20.578Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-04: ATI's Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Full-Year EBITDA Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atis-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-121500955.html))

- 2026-02-16: ATI Earnings Beat Highlights Defense Growth, Alloy Mix Shift And Valuation Questions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ati-earnings-beat-highlights-defense-010615440.html))

- 2026-05-02: ATI Q1 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Strong Backlog Drive Upbeat Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ati-q1-deep-dive-margin-220455700.html))

- 2026-08-13: ATI Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Aerospace Demand, Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ati-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-150500442.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: $3.1B 

- FY2017: $3.5B 

- FY2018: $4.0B 

- FY2019: $4.1B 

- FY2020: $3.0B 

- FY2021: $2.8B 

- FY2022: $3.8B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $4.4B 

- FY2025: $4.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 7.5% 

- FY2017: 14.1% 

- FY2018: 15.6% 

- FY2019: 15.5% 

- FY2020: 9.8% 

- FY2021: 11.9% 

- FY2022: 18.6% 

- FY2023: 19.2% 

- FY2024: 20.9% 

- FY2025: 21.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in metal fabrication; annual sales are USD 4.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 4587400000; grossProfit 999800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ATI.US: ATI Inc. produces and sells specialty materials and complex components worldwide. It operates in two segments, High Performance Materials & Components, and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. The company produces high performance materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, and metallic powder alloys, as well as long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, seamless tubes, plus precision forgings, components, and machined parts. It also offers zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in various forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. In addition, the company provides hot-rolling conversion services comprising carbon steel products. It serves medical and specialty energy, aerospace and defense, construction and mining, transportation, oil and gas, automotive, food equipment and appliances, and mining markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.2% to 21.8% during 2023–25; it earns 14.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.18131147540983605],[2017,0.04078631429557746],[2018,0.13779604989052482],[2019,0.14815563824623848],[2020,-0.8559702237378358],[2021,0.06454005710067975],[2022,0.15246022198048084],[2023,0.18067015301181483],[2024,0.1713719623824228],[2025,0.16353755128501346]]; median 0.14297584406838165. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 24.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 139200000; owner earnings 239600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 17100000; upkeep 151100000; owner earnings 252500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06772277227722773.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 152600000; owner earnings 157400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 7500000; upkeep 123400000; owner earnings 323500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.023183925811437404.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 54600000; upkeep 146100000; owner earnings 410800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13291139240506328.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 84739638.56204557; upkeep 154360361.43795443; owner earnings 339239638.5620456. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24979285711197052.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: growth capex 98198545.28029221; upkeep 182401454.7197078; owner earnings 399298545.2802922. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24592763094431164.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Incremental return on capital 1.2880282433982855, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,25800000],[2017,14900000],[2018,10000000],[2019,14000000],[2020,7000000],[2021,0],[2022,34000000],[2023,16000000],[2024,16000000],[2025,13200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 504100000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ATI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.822 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3028665688326676. Price 189.31; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -3.288909599254427 → FY2025 2.8159276818074206. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $13.64 per share

- 2016-11: $17.54 per share

- 2016-12: $15.93 per share

- 2017-01: $21.73 per share

- 2017-02: $19.21 per share

- 2017-03: $17.96 per share

- 2017-04: $18.35 per share

- 2017-05: $15.43 per share

- 2017-06: $17.01 per share

- 2017-07: $18.94 per share

- 2017-08: $20.83 per share

- 2017-09: $23.90 per share

- 2017-10: $25.18 per share

- 2017-11: $22.77 per share

- 2017-12: $24.14 per share

- 2018-01: $26.96 per share

- 2018-02: $25.91 per share

- 2018-03: $23.68 per share

- 2018-04: $26.57 per share

- 2018-05: $28.52 per share

- 2018-06: $25.12 per share

- 2018-07: $27.80 per share

- 2018-08: $27.03 per share

- 2018-09: $29.55 per share

- 2018-10: $25.89 per share

- 2018-11: $26.26 per share

- 2018-12: $21.77 per share

- 2019-01: $27.39 per share

- 2019-02: $28.63 per share

- 2019-03: $25.57 per share

- 2019-04: $24.92 per share

- 2019-05: $21.41 per share

- 2019-06: $25.20 per share

- 2019-07: $21.77 per share

- 2019-08: $19.82 per share

- 2019-09: $20.25 per share

- 2019-10: $21.01 per share

- 2019-11: $23.06 per share

- 2019-12: $20.66 per share

- 2020-01: $17.25 per share

- 2020-02: $17.09 per share

- 2020-03: $8.50 per share

- 2020-04: $7.51 per share

- 2020-05: $8.68 per share

- 2020-06: $10.19 per share

- 2020-07: $8.69 per share

- 2020-08: $8.33 per share

- 2020-09: $8.72 per share

- 2020-10: $9.21 per share

- 2020-11: $13.49 per share

- 2020-12: $16.77 per share

- 2021-01: $17.01 per share

- 2021-02: $19.66 per share

- 2021-03: $21.06 per share

- 2021-04: $23.26 per share

- 2021-05: $24.49 per share

- 2021-06: $20.85 per share

- 2021-07: $20.53 per share

- 2021-08: $17.86 per share

- 2021-09: $16.63 per share

- 2021-10: $16.10 per share

- 2021-11: $14.24 per share

- 2021-12: $15.93 per share

- 2022-01: $18.29 per share

- 2022-02: $25.74 per share

- 2022-03: $26.84 per share

- 2022-04: $27.18 per share

- 2022-05: $27.50 per share

- 2022-06: $22.71 per share

- 2022-07: $24.89 per share

- 2022-08: $29.93 per share

- 2022-09: $26.61 per share

- 2022-10: $29.76 per share

- 2022-11: $30.51 per share

- 2022-12: $29.86 per share

- 2023-01: $36.39 per share

- 2023-02: $40.65 per share

- 2023-03: $39.46 per share

- 2023-04: $38.62 per share

- 2023-05: $34.58 per share

- 2023-06: $44.23 per share

- 2023-07: $47.68 per share

- 2023-08: $45.33 per share

- 2023-09: $41.15 per share

- 2023-10: $37.77 per share

- 2023-11: $43.95 per share

- 2023-12: $45.47 per share

- 2024-01: $40.87 per share

- 2024-02: $49.18 per share

- 2024-03: $51.17 per share

- 2024-04: $59.70 per share

- 2024-05: $61.34 per share

- 2024-06: $55.45 per share

- 2024-07: $67.71 per share

- 2024-08: $63.88 per share

- 2024-09: $66.91 per share

- 2024-10: $52.71 per share

- 2024-11: $60.17 per share

- 2024-12: $55.04 per share

- 2025-01: $57.09 per share

- 2025-02: $58.16 per share

- 2025-03: $52.03 per share

- 2025-04: $54.38 per share

- 2025-05: $79.64 per share

- 2025-06: $86.34 per share

- 2025-07: $76.94 per share

- 2025-08: $77.54 per share

- 2025-09: $81.34 per share

- 2025-10: $98.97 per share

- 2025-11: $100.80 per share

- 2025-12: $114.76 per share

- 2026-01: $120.30 per share

- 2026-02: $163.59 per share

- 2026-03: $145.46 per share

- 2026-04: $155.46 per share

- 2026-05: $175.16 per share

- 2026-06: $197.10 per share

- 2026-07: $187.44 per share

- 2026-08: $204.20 per share

- 2026-09: $189.40 per share

- 2026-10: $189.31 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $17.63 per share, central $19.49 per share, high $21.98 per share

- FY2022: low $19.77 per share, central $22.04 per share, high $25.05 per share

- FY2023: low $23.03 per share, central $25.60 per share, high $29.02 per share

- FY2024: low $29.62 per share, central $33.10 per share, high $37.75 per share

- FY2025: low $32.11 per share, central $36.22 per share, high $41.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018963/000162828026010140/ati-20251228.htm); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.