# AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:40.789Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $91.57 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $20.16 per share, central $26.34 per share, high $30.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value $26.34 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:40.789Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.8% at the stated quote. About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.33×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.45×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -10.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 19.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.8%

- FY2017: 7.7%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 9.5%

- FY2020: 22.7%

- FY2021: 12.9%

- FY2022: 6.7%

- FY2023: 7.4%

- FY2024: 13.9%

- FY2025: 44.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 134.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 2.34×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.7% vs 13.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.15 to 2.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Market cap gain: $39B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 39.8%

- Per-share value change: $2.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $119M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.15

- FY2017: $0.35

- FY2018: $0.52

- FY2019: -$0.02

- FY2020: $2.40

- FY2021: $1.46

- FY2022: $0.55

- FY2023: -$0.56

- FY2024: $2.20

- FY2025: $5.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.51×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.79×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.7%

- FY2017: -11.8%

- FY2018: -9.6%

- FY2019: -15.4%

- FY2020: -8.4%

- FY2021: -8.2%

- FY2022: -19.6%

- FY2023: -14.9%

- FY2024: -7.3%

- FY2025: -13.8%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Feb 2026 · "AngloGold Ashanti Safety Setback Raises Questions For Dividend And Buyback Plans" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +70.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:20.783Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 23.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-01: AngloGold gains as surging free cash flow lifts dividend payout; debt plunges 92% ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476821-anglogold-surges-as-jump-in-free-cash-flow-uplifts-dividend-payout-debt-plunges-92?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-22: AngloGold hit with new setback in $1.4B Quebradona copper project in Colombia ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4507225-anglogold-hit-with-new-setback-in-1_4b-quebradona-copper-project-in-colombia?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-11: Why AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Is Up 10.5% After Higher Dividend and Record Gold Output ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-anglogold-ashanti-au-10-161323715.html))

- 2026-01-31: AngloGold Ashanti Expands With Augusta Gold Deal And Undervalued Shares ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anglogold-ashanti-expands-augusta-gold-220903323.html))

- 2026-05-12: AngloGold Ashanti Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/anglogold-ashanti-q1-earnings-beat-164900841.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +70.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067428/000162828023008441/au-20221231.htm; observed 2023-03-17.

- FY2016: $4.2B 

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $3.3B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $4.6B 

- FY2021: $4.0B 

- FY2022: $4.5B 

- FY2023: $4.6B 

- FY2024: $5.8B 

- FY2025: $9.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067428/000162828023008441/au-20221231.htm; observed 2023-03-17.

- FY2016: 19.8% 

- FY2017: 23.4% 

- FY2018: 22.7% 

- FY2019: 25.6% 

- FY2020: 38.0% 

- FY2021: 29.1% 

- FY2022: 25.1% 

- FY2023: 22.4% 

- FY2024: 35.7% 

- FY2025: 46.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 9.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2025: revenue 9893000000; grossProfit 4604000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.4% to 46.5% during 2023–25; it earns 8.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 22.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0777655597096987],[2017,0.07672038327526133],[2018,0.0753822629969419],[2019,0.09470905678085406],[2020,0.22729502452697967],[2021,0.12912653807623473],[2022,0.06749699879951981],[2023,0.07384904169136534],[2024,0.1390044064995869],[2025,0.4421813627228253]]; median 0.08623730824527638. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 22.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 711000000; owner earnings 161000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 675000000; owner earnings 293000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 575000000; owner earnings 223000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2020: growth capex 126000000; upkeep 576000000; owner earnings 1009000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12487611496531219.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1028000000; owner earnings 63000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067428/000162828023008441/au-20221231.htm (filed 2023-03-17); FY2022: growth capex 391000000; upkeep 637000000; owner earnings 233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.6781115879828326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2024: growth capex 338000000; upkeep 752000000; owner earnings 1004000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33665338645418325.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); FY2025: growth capex 592000000; upkeep 1015000000; owner earnings 2636000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22458270106221548.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); Incremental return on capital 1.3476528372331222, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,15000000],[2017,39000000],[2018,24000000],[2019,43000000],[2020,47000000],[2021,240000000],[2022,203000000],[2023,107000000],[2024,244000000],[2025,1871000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.058 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 23.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 32.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-03-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3297936583925869. Price 91.57; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.31409054346988585 → FY2025 5.179504410241901. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $13.74 per share

- 2016-11: $10.94 per share

- 2016-12: $10.51 per share

- 2017-01: $12.71 per share

- 2017-02: $11.02 per share

- 2017-03: $10.77 per share

- 2017-04: $11.43 per share

- 2017-05: $11.39 per share

- 2017-06: $9.72 per share

- 2017-07: $10.02 per share

- 2017-08: $10.14 per share

- 2017-09: $9.29 per share

- 2017-10: $9.30 per share

- 2017-11: $10.45 per share

- 2017-12: $10.19 per share

- 2018-01: $11.28 per share

- 2018-02: $9.34 per share

- 2018-03: $9.49 per share

- 2018-04: $8.98 per share

- 2018-05: $8.62 per share

- 2018-06: $8.21 per share

- 2018-07: $8.89 per share

- 2018-08: $7.91 per share

- 2018-09: $8.58 per share

- 2018-10: $9.41 per share

- 2018-11: $9.92 per share

- 2018-12: $12.55 per share

- 2019-01: $14.29 per share

- 2019-02: $14.17 per share

- 2019-03: $13.10 per share

- 2019-04: $11.80 per share

- 2019-05: $13.29 per share

- 2019-06: $17.81 per share

- 2019-07: $17.06 per share

- 2019-08: $22.75 per share

- 2019-09: $18.27 per share

- 2019-10: $22.08 per share

- 2019-11: $19.04 per share

- 2019-12: $22.34 per share

- 2020-01: $20.36 per share

- 2020-02: $17.45 per share

- 2020-03: $16.63 per share

- 2020-04: $24.39 per share

- 2020-05: $24.56 per share

- 2020-06: $29.49 per share

- 2020-07: $32.19 per share

- 2020-08: $29.51 per share

- 2020-09: $26.38 per share

- 2020-10: $23.14 per share

- 2020-11: $21.67 per share

- 2020-12: $22.62 per share

- 2021-01: $23.46 per share

- 2021-02: $19.96 per share

- 2021-03: $21.97 per share

- 2021-04: $20.58 per share

- 2021-05: $23.77 per share

- 2021-06: $18.58 per share

- 2021-07: $20.05 per share

- 2021-08: $17.08 per share

- 2021-09: $15.99 per share

- 2021-10: $18.48 per share

- 2021-11: $20.94 per share

- 2021-12: $20.98 per share

- 2022-01: $18.58 per share

- 2022-02: $23.24 per share

- 2022-03: $23.69 per share

- 2022-04: $20.42 per share

- 2022-05: $17.18 per share

- 2022-06: $14.79 per share

- 2022-07: $14.71 per share

- 2022-08: $13.48 per share

- 2022-09: $13.82 per share

- 2022-10: $13.05 per share

- 2022-11: $18.33 per share

- 2022-12: $19.42 per share

- 2023-01: $21.02 per share

- 2023-02: $16.66 per share

- 2023-03: $24.19 per share

- 2023-04: $26.58 per share

- 2023-05: $24.20 per share

- 2023-06: $21.09 per share

- 2023-07: $22.20 per share

- 2023-08: $17.00 per share

- 2023-09: $15.80 per share

- 2023-10: $17.84 per share

- 2023-11: $19.25 per share

- 2023-12: $18.69 per share

- 2024-01: $17.62 per share

- 2024-02: $18.61 per share

- 2024-03: $22.20 per share

- 2024-04: $22.99 per share

- 2024-05: $24.19 per share

- 2024-06: $25.13 per share

- 2024-07: $28.08 per share

- 2024-08: $29.67 per share

- 2024-09: $26.63 per share

- 2024-10: $27.80 per share

- 2024-11: $24.94 per share

- 2024-12: $23.08 per share

- 2025-01: $30.21 per share

- 2025-02: $29.47 per share

- 2025-03: $37.12 per share

- 2025-04: $42.16 per share

- 2025-05: $43.81 per share

- 2025-06: $45.57 per share

- 2025-07: $46.25 per share

- 2025-08: $56.66 per share

- 2025-09: $70.33 per share

- 2025-10: $68.00 per share

- 2025-11: $85.68 per share

- 2025-12: $85.28 per share

- 2026-01: $92.87 per share

- 2026-02: $127.77 per share

- 2026-03: $97.36 per share

- 2026-04: $93.73 per share

- 2026-05: $96.84 per share

- 2026-06: $80.89 per share

- 2026-07: $79.32 per share

- 2026-08: $112.32 per share

- 2026-09: $93.95 per share

- 2026-10: $91.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $3.85 per share, central $4.34 per share, high $4.99 per share

- FY2017: low $3.17 per share, central $3.56 per share, high $4.08 per share

- FY2018: low $3.96 per share, central $4.41 per share, high $5.02 per share

- FY2019: low $4.44 per share, central $4.92 per share, high $5.56 per share

- FY2020: low $11.03 per share, central $12.13 per share, high $13.59 per share

- FY2021: low $9.54 per share, central $10.50 per share, high $11.79 per share

- FY2022: low $8.48 per share, central $9.31 per share, high $10.43 per share

- FY2023: low $3.93 per share, central $4.18 per share, high $4.53 per share

- FY2024: low $10.02 per share, central $11.13 per share, high $12.49 per share

- FY2025: low $17.74 per share, central $22.88 per share, high $26.07 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:18.170Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067428/000162828023008441/au-20221231.htm); period 2022-12-31, filed 2023-03-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.