# Aviva (AV.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AV.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 708.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 86.43 per share, central GBX 98.62 per share, high GBX 114.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 98.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.9% at the stated quote. About 3.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 9

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.78×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 618M

- FY2017: GBP 1.4B

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B

- FY2019: GBP 2.5B

- FY2020: GBP 2.8B

- FY2021: GBP 1.9B

- FY2022: GBP -1.0B

- FY2023: GBP 1.1B

- FY2024: GBP 684M

- FY2025: GBP 1.0B

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 9.4%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.4%

- FY2017: 8.0%

- FY2018: 8.7%

- FY2019: 14.1%

- FY2020: 14.1%

- FY2021: 10.1%

- FY2022: -8.5%

- FY2023: 12.6%

- FY2024: 8.2%

- FY2025: 10.7%

### economics: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 0.6%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: GBP 4.87

- Ending book value per share: GBP 2.59

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.6%

- FY2017: 4.5%

- FY2018: 7.2%

- FY2019: 10.4%

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 4.9%

- FY2022: -28.0%

- FY2023: -17.9%

- FY2024: -9.7%

- FY2025: 11.5%

### management: fail

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book per share gain below retained common earnings per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0.7%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 4.5%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book value created per share: GBP -2.28

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: GBP -1.43

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price is 0.5 times annual sales · net income +51%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.361Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price is 0.5 times annual sales

- 2026-03-05: Aviva flags potential for Iran conflict to send claims costs rising ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/aviva-flags-potential-iran-conflict-140458708.html))

- 2026-08-14: Aviva earnings jump by 24% amid swift progress on Direct Line turnaround ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/aviva-earnings-jump-24-amid-065404118.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +51%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: GBP 618M 

- FY2017: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2019: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2022: GBP -1.0B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2024: GBP 684M 

- FY2025: GBP 1.0B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance diversified; annual sales are GBP 58.5 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z); FY2025: revenue 58510000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 9.4% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.034475064152627466],[2017,0.07994350282485875],[2018,0.08662587912402081],[2019,0.14100971312401175],[2020,0.140840748695919],[2021,0.10149984376627434],[2022,-0.08520142278104062],[2023,0.12588208513544275],[2024,0.08236002408187838],[2025,0.10656075923251496]]; median 0.09406286144514758. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 477 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,888000000],[2017,1000000000],[2018,1145000000],[2019,1201000000],[2020,253000000],[2021,1127000000],[2022,845000000],[2023,895000000],[2024,938000000],[2025,1246000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 477000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AV.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.202 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 0.5 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.920Z); Closing price 708.4 GBX; reporting-to-trading FX 100; FY2025 annual sales per share 15.631205496413799; price multiple 0.4531960124012989. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.2906640160673084. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 442.80 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 447.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 486.40 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 476.90 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 498.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 532.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 524.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 525.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 526.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 539.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 522.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 514.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 505.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 511.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 506.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 513.20 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 505.60 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 495.90 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 529.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 510.80 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 504.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 500.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 485.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 489.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 428.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 407.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 375.50 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 414.10 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 423.20 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 412.40 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 429.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 404.60 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 416.50 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 406.10 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 354.10 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 399.30 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 415.20 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 403.80 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 418.70 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 398.40 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 350.80 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 268.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 241.80 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 247.70 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 273.60 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 263.70 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 282.70 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 285.70 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 257.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 321.20 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 325.20 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 335.20 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 361.90 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 408.20 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 400.30 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 411.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 405.90 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 387.30 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 404.10 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 395.90 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 394.70 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 385.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 410.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 434.20 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 419.80 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 452.10 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 433.30 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 430.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 401.30 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 396.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 418.70 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 388.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 418.10 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 444.30 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 442.80 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 455.70 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 446.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 404.20 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 423.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 394.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 395.20 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 388.40 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 375.20 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 389.80 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 397.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 417.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 434.70 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 432.30 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 446.30 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 496.60 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 465.70 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 479.90 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 476.60 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 500.20 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 504.60 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 483.60 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 453.10 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 483.70 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 468.80 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 514.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 544.40 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 555.20 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 560.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 610.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 619.20 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 648.60 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 651.60 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 685.80 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 668.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 651.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 684.40 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 635.80 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 686.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 600.40 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 623.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 613.20 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 650.20 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 693.40 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 730.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 686.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 691.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 464.51 per share, central GBX 580.64 per share, high GBX 774.19 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 532.40 per share, central GBX 665.51 per share, high GBX 887.34 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 454.02 per share, central GBX 499.42 per share, high GBX 554.91 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 843.64 per share, central GBX 1,025.25 per share, high GBX 1,306.48 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 674.94 per share, central GBX 742.43 per share, high GBX 824.93 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 817.61 per share, central GBX 976.56 per share, high GBX 1,212.22 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 354.71 per share, central GBX 390.18 per share, high GBX 433.54 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 352.96 per share, central GBX 416.42 per share, high GBX 507.71 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 211.56 per share, central GBX 245.98 per share, high GBX 293.78 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 144.32 per share, central GBX 164.67 per share, high GBX 191.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Aviva

AV · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 708.40
Buy up to: GBX 98.62
Expected / yr: 3.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 9 years (at least 8 needed).

Net income

10y median: GBP 1.3B
Worst year: GBP -1.0B
Latest · 2025: GBP 1.0B

Earned a median 9.4% on equity (minimum 10%).

Return on common equity

10y median: 9.4%
Worst year: -8.5%
Latest · 2025: 10.7%

Book value plus dividends grew 0.6% a year (minimum 7%).

Annual book + dividend return

10y median: 6.1%
Worst year: -28.0%
Latest · 2025: 11.5%

Book value gained -2.28 per share against 0 kept (must cover the amount kept).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood

per-share value change
Passing bar: ≥ GBP 0

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

accounting warnings: 0
Passing bar: ≤ 0

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.3 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 442.80 · Value 580.64 · Buy at or below 580.64; 2016-11 · Price GBX 447.00 · Value 580.64 · Buy at or below 580.64; 2016-12 · Price GBX 486.40 · Value 580.64 · Buy at or below 580.64; 2017-01 · Price GBX 476.90 · Value 580.64 · Buy at or below 580.64; 2017-02 · Price GBX 498.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-03 · Price GBX 532.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-04 · Price GBX 524.50 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-05 · Price GBX 525.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-06 · Price GBX 526.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-07 · Price GBX 539.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-08 · Price GBX 522.50 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-09 · Price GBX 514.50 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-10 · Price GBX 505.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-11 · Price GBX 511.00 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2017-12 · Price GBX 506.50 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2018-01 · Price GBX 513.20 · Value 665.51 · Buy at or below 665.51; 2018-02 · Price GBX 505.60 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-03 · Price GBX 495.90 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-04 · Price GBX 529.00 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-05 · Price GBX 510.80 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-06 · Price GBX 504.00 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-07 · Price GBX 500.00 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-08 · Price GBX 485.00 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-09 · Price GBX 489.50 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-10 · Price GBX 428.50 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-11 · Price GBX 407.00 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2018-12 · Price GBX 375.50 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2019-01 · Price GBX 414.10 · Value 499.42 · Buy at or below 499.42; 2019-02 · Price GBX 423.20 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-03 · Price GBX 412.40 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-04 · Price GBX 429.50 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-05 · Price GBX 404.60 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-06 · Price GBX 416.50 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-07 · Price GBX 406.10 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-08 · Price GBX 354.10 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-09 · Price GBX 399.30 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-10 · Price GBX 415.20 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-11 · Price GBX 403.80 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2019-12 · Price GBX 418.70 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2020-01 · Price GBX 398.40 · Value 1025.25 · Buy at or below 1025.25; 2020-02 · Price GBX 350.80 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-03 · Price GBX 268.50 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-04 · Price GBX 241.80 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-05 · Price GBX 247.70 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-06 · Price GBX 273.60 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-07 · Price GBX 263.70 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-08 · Price GBX 282.70 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-09 · Price GBX 285.70 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-10 · Price GBX 257.50 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-11 · Price GBX 321.20 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2020-12 · Price GBX 325.20 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2021-01 · Price GBX 335.20 · Value 742.43 · Buy at or below 742.43; 2021-02 · Price GBX 361.90 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-03 · Price GBX 408.20 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-04 · Price GBX 400.30 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-05 · Price GBX 411.20 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-06 · Price GBX 405.90 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-07 · Price GBX 387.30 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-08 · Price GBX 404.10 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-09 · Price GBX 395.90 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-10 · Price GBX 394.70 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-11 · Price GBX 385.00 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2021-12 · Price GBX 410.40 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2022-01 · Price GBX 434.20 · Value 976.56 · Buy at or below 976.56; 2022-02 · Price GBX 419.80 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-03 · Price GBX 452.10 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-04 · Price GBX 433.30 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-05 · Price GBX 430.00 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-06 · Price GBX 401.30 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-07 · Price GBX 396.00 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-08 · Price GBX 418.70 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-09 · Price GBX 388.20 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-10 · Price GBX 418.10 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-11 · Price GBX 444.30 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2022-12 · Price GBX 442.80 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2023-01 · Price GBX 455.70 · Value 390.18 · Buy at or below 390.18; 2023-02 · Price GBX 446.40 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-03 · Price GBX 404.20 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-04 · Price GBX 423.00 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-05 · Price GBX 394.20 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-06 · Price GBX 395.20 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-07 · Price GBX 388.40 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-08 · Price GBX 375.20 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-09 · Price GBX 389.80 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-10 · Price GBX 397.60 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-11 · Price GBX 417.50 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2023-12 · Price GBX 434.70 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2024-01 · Price GBX 432.30 · Value 416.42 · Buy at or below 416.42; 2024-02 · Price GBX 446.30 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-03 · Price GBX 496.60 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-04 · Price GBX 465.70 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-05 · Price GBX 479.90 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-06 · Price GBX 476.60 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-07 · Price GBX 500.20 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-08 · Price GBX 504.60 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-09 · Price GBX 483.60 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-10 · Price GBX 453.10 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-11 · Price GBX 483.70 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2024-12 · Price GBX 468.80 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2025-01 · Price GBX 514.00 · Value 245.98 · Buy at or below 245.98; 2025-02 · Price GBX 544.40 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-03 · Price GBX 555.20 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-04 · Price GBX 560.00 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-05 · Price GBX 610.60 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-06 · Price GBX 619.20 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-07 · Price GBX 648.60 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-08 · Price GBX 651.60 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-09 · Price GBX 685.80 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-10 · Price GBX 668.60 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-11 · Price GBX 651.80 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2025-12 · Price GBX 684.40 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2026-01 · Price GBX 635.80 · Value 164.67 · Buy at or below 164.67; 2026-02 · Price GBX 686.00 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-03 · Price GBX 600.40 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-04 · Price GBX 623.60 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-05 · Price GBX 613.20 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-06 · Price GBX 650.20 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-07 · Price GBX 693.40 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-08 · Price GBX 730.40 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-09 · Price GBX 686.40 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-10 · Price GBX 691.80 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62; 2026-10 · Price GBX 708.40 · Value 98.62 · Buy at or below 98.62

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 86.43 – GBX 114.81
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 98.62
Discount to value	1 − 708.40 / 98.62 = -618.3%
Return / year	About 3.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Book GBX 56.70/share; ROE 15.2%; first payout GBX 6.99/share, growing 2.9% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

Net incomeGBP 1.0B

Net income

Book / shareGBP 2.59

Book / share

Dividend / shareGBP 0.33

Dividend / share

Return on equity10.7%

Return on equity

Diluted shares3.7B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025