# Avery Dennison (AVY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AVY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:21.881Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $175.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $125.06 per share, central $152.74 per share, high $177.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $152.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:21.881Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.12×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 26.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 23.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 34.7%

- FY2018: 39.1%

- FY2019: 41.8%

- FY2020: 29.8%

- FY2021: 26.1%

- FY2022: 26.2%

- FY2023: 22.0%

- FY2024: 26.7%

- FY2025: 23.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 23.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 78.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.15×

- FY2025: 1.23×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.7% vs 23.5%

- Per-share earnings: 3.13 to 8.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: $7.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.7%

- Per-share value change: $5.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.67

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 34.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.54

- FY2017: $3.13

- FY2018: $5.28

- FY2019: $3.57

- FY2020: $6.61

- FY2021: $8.83

- FY2022: $9.21

- FY2023: $6.20

- FY2024: $8.73

- FY2025: $8.79

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.38×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -7.2%

- FY2018: 0.2%

- FY2019: -8.1%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -2.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 23% since May 2024 · "Further consolidation may increase pressure from customers for us to lower our selling prices." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.592Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-23: Label maker Avery Dennison switches to quarterly outlook citing macro uncertainty ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/label-maker-avery-dennison-switches-134207894.html))

- 2025-05-11: AVY Q1 Earnings Call: Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Steady Organic Growth and Margin Performance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avy-q1-earnings-call-tariff-171642480.html))

- 2025-07-22: Avery Dennison signals cautious Q3 EPS outlook amid apparel softness and tariff impacts ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4470135-avery-dennison-signals-cautious-q3-eps-outlook-amid-apparel-softness-and-tariff-impacts?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-23: Avery Dennison's Growth to Accelerate on Walmart RFID Rollout, UBS Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avery-dennison-apos-growth-accelerate-155336967.html))

- 2026-02-04: Avery Dennison outlines 6% Q1 2026 EPS growth target as high-value category mix accelerates ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547403-avery-dennison-outlines-6-percent-q1-2026-eps-growth-target-as-high-value-category-mix?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $6.6B 

- FY2018: $7.2B 

- FY2019: $7.1B 

- FY2020: $7.0B 

- FY2021: $8.4B 

- FY2022: $9.0B 

- FY2023: $8.4B 

- FY2024: $8.8B 

- FY2025: $8.9B 

- FY2026: $9.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 29%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 27.4% 

- FY2018: 26.7% 

- FY2019: 26.9% 

- FY2020: 27.6% 

- FY2021: 27.5% 

- FY2022: 26.5% 

- FY2023: 27.2% 

- FY2024: 28.9% 

- FY2025: 28.8% 

- FY2026: 29.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 8.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 8855500000; grossProfit 2546300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AVY.US: Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It offers pressure-sensitive label materials, which consist of papers, plastic films, and metal foils; performance tapes products, including mechanical fasteners, which are precision-extruded and injection-molded plastic devices; and other pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials and converted products under the Fasson, JAC, and Avery Dennison brands. The company provides graphics and reflective products that include films and other products for the architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; durable cast and reflective films to the construction, automotive, and fleet transportation markets; sign shops, commercial printers, and designers for pressure-sensitive materials; reflective films for traffic and safety applications; and pressure-sensitive vinyl and specialty materials for digital imaging, screen printing, and sign cutting applications under the Avery Dennison and Mactac brand names. In addition, it offers branding solutions, which include brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, labels, and sustainable packaging; information solutions, such as item-level RFID, visibility and loss prevention, price ticketing and marking, productivity and media, and brand protection and security solutions; and shelf-edge productivity and media solutions under the Vestcom brand names, as well as care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions. It serves home and personal care, apparel, general retail, e-commerce, logistics, food and grocery, pharmaceuticals, and automotive industries. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.2% to 28.9% during 2023–25; it earns 26.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3473978356827567],[2018,0.3914764942268157],[2019,0.4184788157223073],[2020,0.29759814368139015],[2021,0.26073787878540927],[2022,0.26162124781285123],[2023,0.2199385205707336],[2024,0.2670405169059481],[2025,0.23458415434326943],[2026,0.238621603418887]]; median 0.26433088235939967. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 27% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.2746333979846858],[2022,0.2653524056066288],[2023,0.27188168768120247]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 572.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 17921668.800725788; upkeep 188678331.1992742; owner earnings 312121668.8007258. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05741885486383159.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 47400000; upkeep 178700000; owner earnings 281800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16820440028388928.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 75600000; upkeep 181000000; owner earnings 467400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16174582798459564.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 257200000; owner earnings 225400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 218600000; owner earnings 542600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 28000000; upkeep 244100000; owner earnings 740100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.037832725307390895.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 7800000; upkeep 290700000; owner earnings 757100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.010302469951129309.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 285100000; owner earnings 516300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 208800000; owner earnings 808300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 169000000; owner earnings 847200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,142500000],[2017,155500000],[2018,175000000],[2019,189700000],[2020,196800000],[2021,220600000],[2022,238900000],[2023,256700000],[2024,277500000],[2025,288400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 572300000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AVY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.641 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If our indebtedness increases significantly or our credit ratings are downgraded" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); If our indebtedness increases significantly or our credit ratings are downgraded

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05028012840458451. Price 175.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.348762109795479 → FY2025 10.81992337164751. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $69.79 per share

- 2016-11: $72.06 per share

- 2016-12: $70.22 per share

- 2017-01: $73.02 per share

- 2017-02: $80.71 per share

- 2017-03: $80.60 per share

- 2017-04: $83.21 per share

- 2017-05: $84.26 per share

- 2017-06: $88.37 per share

- 2017-07: $92.93 per share

- 2017-08: $94.26 per share

- 2017-09: $98.34 per share

- 2017-10: $106.17 per share

- 2017-11: $114.12 per share

- 2017-12: $114.86 per share

- 2018-01: $122.68 per share

- 2018-02: $118.15 per share

- 2018-03: $106.25 per share

- 2018-04: $104.81 per share

- 2018-05: $105.03 per share

- 2018-06: $102.10 per share

- 2018-07: $114.68 per share

- 2018-08: $105.18 per share

- 2018-09: $108.35 per share

- 2018-10: $90.72 per share

- 2018-11: $96.40 per share

- 2018-12: $89.83 per share

- 2019-01: $104.45 per share

- 2019-02: $108.04 per share

- 2019-03: $113.00 per share

- 2019-04: $110.65 per share

- 2019-05: $104.06 per share

- 2019-06: $115.68 per share

- 2019-07: $114.87 per share

- 2019-08: $115.57 per share

- 2019-09: $113.57 per share

- 2019-10: $127.86 per share

- 2019-11: $130.37 per share

- 2019-12: $130.82 per share

- 2020-01: $131.24 per share

- 2020-02: $114.49 per share

- 2020-03: $101.87 per share

- 2020-04: $110.39 per share

- 2020-05: $110.67 per share

- 2020-06: $114.09 per share

- 2020-07: $113.34 per share

- 2020-08: $115.39 per share

- 2020-09: $127.84 per share

- 2020-10: $138.39 per share

- 2020-11: $149.34 per share

- 2020-12: $155.11 per share

- 2021-01: $150.87 per share

- 2021-02: $175.21 per share

- 2021-03: $183.65 per share

- 2021-04: $214.17 per share

- 2021-05: $220.53 per share

- 2021-06: $210.24 per share

- 2021-07: $210.68 per share

- 2021-08: $225.39 per share

- 2021-09: $207.21 per share

- 2021-10: $217.72 per share

- 2021-11: $205.07 per share

- 2021-12: $216.57 per share

- 2022-01: $205.42 per share

- 2022-02: $176.20 per share

- 2022-03: $173.97 per share

- 2022-04: $180.60 per share

- 2022-05: $172.56 per share

- 2022-06: $161.87 per share

- 2022-07: $190.46 per share

- 2022-08: $183.62 per share

- 2022-09: $162.70 per share

- 2022-10: $169.55 per share

- 2022-11: $193.33 per share

- 2022-12: $181.00 per share

- 2023-01: $189.44 per share

- 2023-02: $182.19 per share

- 2023-03: $178.93 per share

- 2023-04: $174.48 per share

- 2023-05: $161.13 per share

- 2023-06: $171.80 per share

- 2023-07: $184.01 per share

- 2023-08: $188.38 per share

- 2023-09: $182.67 per share

- 2023-10: $174.07 per share

- 2023-11: $194.50 per share

- 2023-12: $202.16 per share

- 2024-01: $199.45 per share

- 2024-02: $216.53 per share

- 2024-03: $223.25 per share

- 2024-04: $217.28 per share

- 2024-05: $227.59 per share

- 2024-06: $218.65 per share

- 2024-07: $216.83 per share

- 2024-08: $221.85 per share

- 2024-09: $220.76 per share

- 2024-10: $207.03 per share

- 2024-11: $205.95 per share

- 2024-12: $187.13 per share

- 2025-01: $185.73 per share

- 2025-02: $187.97 per share

- 2025-03: $177.97 per share

- 2025-04: $171.11 per share

- 2025-05: $177.73 per share

- 2025-06: $175.47 per share

- 2025-07: $167.77 per share

- 2025-08: $171.65 per share

- 2025-09: $162.17 per share

- 2025-10: $174.89 per share

- 2025-11: $172.37 per share

- 2025-12: $181.88 per share

- 2026-01: $185.51 per share

- 2026-02: $196.35 per share

- 2026-03: $172.68 per share

- 2026-04: $163.93 per share

- 2026-05: $159.07 per share

- 2026-06: $162.35 per share

- 2026-07: $169.73 per share

- 2026-08: $174.11 per share

- 2026-09: $170.67 per share

- 2026-10: $175.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $35.07 per share, central $39.79 per share, high $46.08 per share

- FY2017: low $35.94 per share, central $40.76 per share, high $47.16 per share

- FY2018: low $46.29 per share, central $52.54 per share, high $60.85 per share

- FY2019: low $47.94 per share, central $54.37 per share, high $62.93 per share

- FY2020: low $51.57 per share, central $63.38 per share, high $73.70 per share

- FY2021: low $77.10 per share, central $94.84 per share, high $110.60 per share

- FY2022: low $101.19 per share, central $125.04 per share, high $145.85 per share

- FY2023: low $94.07 per share, central $114.30 per share, high $133.11 per share

- FY2024: low $107.86 per share, central $130.23 per share, high $151.36 per share

- FY2025: low $109.14 per share, central $124.14 per share, high $144.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:08.856Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/8818/000000881826000015/avy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.