# Armstrong World Industries (AWI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AWI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:41.964Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $166.59 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $80.98 per share, central $92.00 per share, high $106.67 per share. Buy at or below the central value $92.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:41.964Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.8% at the stated quote. About 6.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.27×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.29×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 40.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.9%

- FY2017: 16.8%

- FY2018: 19.4%

- FY2019: 21.3%

- FY2020: 14.8%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: 17.3%

- FY2023: 17.8%

- FY2024: 26.6%

- FY2025: 30.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.09×

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 1.04×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.8% vs 26.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.60 to 6.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Market cap gain: $5.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.0%

- Per-share value change: $4.42

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.60

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.75

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $268M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.60

- FY2017: $4.16

- FY2018: $3.81

- FY2019: $4.85

- FY2020: -$1.76

- FY2021: $3.86

- FY2022: $4.30

- FY2023: $4.99

- FY2024: $6.02

- FY2025: $7.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.84×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.15×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.71×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.3%

- FY2017: 2.9%

- FY2018: -0.2%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: -17.6%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: 1.0%

- FY2023: -0.6%

- FY2024: -0.1%

- FY2025: -2.4%

## Holders

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years · sales +4.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.037Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-29: Armstrong World (NYSE:AWI) Beats Expectations in Strong Q2, Full-Year Outlook Slightly Exceeds Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/armstrong-world-nyse-awi-beats-101541849.html))

- 2025-08-13: AWI Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Segment Growth Drive Upbeat Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/awi-q2-deep-dive-margin-033151454.html))

- 2026-04-28: Armstrong World shares drop after earnings miss despite steady revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/armstrong-world-shares-drop-earnings-102816028.html))

- 2026-07-28: Armstrong World’s (NYSE:AWI) Q2 CY2026: Beats On Revenue, Full-Year Outlook Slightly Exceeds Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/armstrong-world-nyse-awi-q2-102711746.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $894M 

- FY2018: $975M 

- FY2019: $1.0B 

- FY2020: $937M 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.2B 

- FY2023: $1.3B 

- FY2024: $1.4B 

- FY2025: $1.6B 

- FY2026: $1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 40.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 36.6% 

- FY2017: 35.7% 

- FY2018: 34.2% 

- FY2019: 38.1% 

- FY2020: 35.6% 

- FY2021: 36.7% 

- FY2022: 36.4% 

- FY2023: 38.4% 

- FY2024: 40.3% 

- FY2025: 40.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in building products & equipment; annual sales are USD 1.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 1620800000; grossProfit 658700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AWI.US: Armstrong World Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. It operates through Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments. The company offers mineral fiber, fiberglass, metal, wood, felt, architectural resin and glass, wood fiber, and glass-reinforced-gypsum; and ceiling component products, such as ceiling perimeters and trims, as well as grid products that support drywall ceiling systems. It also designs, produces, and sources specialty ceilings, walls, and other interior and exterior architectural applications primarily for use in commercial settings; and manufactures ceiling suspension system (grid) products. It serves commercial and residential construction markets, as well as renovation of existing buildings sectors. The company sells its products to resale distributors, ceiling system contractors, wholesalers, and retailers comprising large home centers. Armstrong World Industries, Inc. was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.4% to 40.6% during 2023–25; it earns 17.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09924821372352548],[2017,0.16849880562012698],[2018,0.1943833118676129],[2019,0.21324980774887492],[2020,0.14757095709570958],[2021,0.13865222964459875],[2022,0.17349170031301417],[2023,0.17845010559040025],[2024,0.265852501997874],[2025,0.3015407001917346]]; median 0.1759709029517072. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 36% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3667992047713718],[2022,0.3643662314491931],[2023,0.3837245213094503]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 128.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 104200000; owner earnings 74100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 500000; upkeep 89200000; owner earnings 224100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0022311468094600626.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 71900000; owner earnings 206100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 71300000; owner earnings 240800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 79800000; owner earnings 201700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 74800000; owner earnings 208500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 83800000; owner earnings 229100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 82800000; owner earnings 285299999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 109400000; owner earnings 319700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,8600000],[2018,8600000],[2019,35600000],[2020,39200000],[2021,41400000],[2022,44200000],[2023,46900000],[2024,50600000],[2025,55200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 128900000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AWI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.548 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was over 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10794126225168013. Price 166.59; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.0017889087656529517 → FY2025 7.33256880733945. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $37.50 per share

- 2016-11: $41.70 per share

- 2016-12: $41.80 per share

- 2017-01: $39.95 per share

- 2017-02: $46.00 per share

- 2017-03: $46.05 per share

- 2017-04: $46.75 per share

- 2017-05: $41.65 per share

- 2017-06: $46.00 per share

- 2017-07: $48.55 per share

- 2017-08: $47.50 per share

- 2017-09: $51.25 per share

- 2017-10: $51.10 per share

- 2017-11: $59.95 per share

- 2017-12: $60.55 per share

- 2018-01: $62.70 per share

- 2018-02: $60.30 per share

- 2018-03: $56.30 per share

- 2018-04: $56.00 per share

- 2018-05: $60.60 per share

- 2018-06: $63.20 per share

- 2018-07: $67.90 per share

- 2018-08: $69.80 per share

- 2018-09: $69.60 per share

- 2018-10: $61.75 per share

- 2018-11: $66.99 per share

- 2018-12: $58.21 per share

- 2019-01: $68.04 per share

- 2019-02: $73.18 per share

- 2019-03: $79.42 per share

- 2019-04: $86.67 per share

- 2019-05: $88.70 per share

- 2019-06: $97.20 per share

- 2019-07: $97.71 per share

- 2019-08: $95.47 per share

- 2019-09: $96.70 per share

- 2019-10: $93.53 per share

- 2019-11: $96.02 per share

- 2019-12: $93.97 per share

- 2020-01: $100.33 per share

- 2020-02: $100.15 per share

- 2020-03: $79.42 per share

- 2020-04: $77.08 per share

- 2020-05: $75.39 per share

- 2020-06: $77.96 per share

- 2020-07: $71.24 per share

- 2020-08: $73.74 per share

- 2020-09: $68.81 per share

- 2020-10: $59.90 per share

- 2020-11: $77.06 per share

- 2020-12: $74.39 per share

- 2021-01: $78.21 per share

- 2021-02: $85.58 per share

- 2021-03: $90.09 per share

- 2021-04: $103.65 per share

- 2021-05: $106.35 per share

- 2021-06: $107.26 per share

- 2021-07: $108.18 per share

- 2021-08: $103.93 per share

- 2021-09: $95.47 per share

- 2021-10: $105.65 per share

- 2021-11: $105.97 per share

- 2021-12: $116.12 per share

- 2022-01: $99.02 per share

- 2022-02: $88.40 per share

- 2022-03: $90.01 per share

- 2022-04: $84.66 per share

- 2022-05: $83.50 per share

- 2022-06: $74.96 per share

- 2022-07: $89.35 per share

- 2022-08: $83.99 per share

- 2022-09: $79.23 per share

- 2022-10: $75.57 per share

- 2022-11: $76.41 per share

- 2022-12: $68.59 per share

- 2023-01: $77.41 per share

- 2023-02: $78.85 per share

- 2023-03: $71.24 per share

- 2023-04: $68.66 per share

- 2023-05: $62.44 per share

- 2023-06: $73.46 per share

- 2023-07: $77.36 per share

- 2023-08: $76.59 per share

- 2023-09: $72.00 per share

- 2023-10: $75.89 per share

- 2023-11: $84.81 per share

- 2023-12: $98.32 per share

- 2024-01: $99.21 per share

- 2024-02: $120.61 per share

- 2024-03: $124.22 per share

- 2024-04: $114.88 per share

- 2024-05: $115.80 per share

- 2024-06: $113.24 per share

- 2024-07: $131.40 per share

- 2024-08: $126.76 per share

- 2024-09: $131.43 per share

- 2024-10: $139.55 per share

- 2024-11: $159.83 per share

- 2024-12: $141.33 per share

- 2025-01: $151.01 per share

- 2025-02: $153.66 per share

- 2025-03: $140.88 per share

- 2025-04: $145.02 per share

- 2025-05: $155.63 per share

- 2025-06: $162.44 per share

- 2025-07: $188.17 per share

- 2025-08: $195.77 per share

- 2025-09: $196.01 per share

- 2025-10: $190.43 per share

- 2025-11: $189.74 per share

- 2025-12: $191.10 per share

- 2026-01: $183.74 per share

- 2026-02: $173.50 per share

- 2026-03: $164.80 per share

- 2026-04: $170.39 per share

- 2026-05: $157.90 per share

- 2026-06: $160.42 per share

- 2026-07: $174.66 per share

- 2026-08: $172.58 per share

- 2026-09: $161.93 per share

- 2026-10: $166.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $2.27 per share, central $2.27 per share, high $2.27 per share

- FY2017: low $2.64 per share, central $2.65 per share, high $2.65 per share

- FY2018: low $24.02 per share, central $26.52 per share, high $29.85 per share

- FY2019: low $48.94 per share, central $55.61 per share, high $64.51 per share

- FY2020: low $47.64 per share, central $53.87 per share, high $62.17 per share

- FY2021: low $54.95 per share, central $62.30 per share, high $72.10 per share

- FY2022: low $54.70 per share, central $62.00 per share, high $71.72 per share

- FY2023: low $56.90 per share, central $64.60 per share, high $74.86 per share

- FY2024: low $64.67 per share, central $73.43 per share, high $85.09 per share

- FY2025: low $75.90 per share, central $86.11 per share, high $99.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7431/000119312526065183/awi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.