# Axfood AB (AXFO.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXFO.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:08.526Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 264.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 86.88 per share, central SEK 98.86 per share, high SEK 114.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 98.86 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:08.526Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.6% at the stated quote. About 5.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 29.6%

- FY2020: 15.1%

- FY2021: 25.1%

- FY2022: 21.3%

- FY2023: 21.2%

- FY2024: 15.0%

- FY2025: 13.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.67×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 7.6B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.67×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.66×

- FY2024: 0.71×

- FY2025: 1.07×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 447.1% vs 15.0%

- Per-share earnings: 6.95 to 10.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: SEK 33B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK 1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.7%

- Per-share value change: SEK 3.84

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 6.95

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 10.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.42

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 5.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 6.95

- FY2017: SEK 6.97

- FY2018: SEK 7.40

- FY2019: SEK 7.86

- FY2020: SEK 9.12

- FY2021: SEK 10.29

- FY2022: SEK 10.86

- FY2023: SEK 10.88

- FY2024: SEK 10.11

- FY2025: SEK 10.78

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -12.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.97×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.3%

- FY2017: -9.3%

- FY2018: -9.4%

- FY2019: -11.0%

- FY2020: -15.6%

- FY2021: -10.3%

- FY2022: -12.5%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -9.2%

- FY2025: -12.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years · sales +6.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.667Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: SEK 43B 

- FY2017: SEK 46B 

- FY2018: SEK 48B 

- FY2019: SEK 51B 

- FY2020: SEK 54B 

- FY2021: SEK 58B 

- FY2022: SEK 73B 

- FY2023: SEK 81B 

- FY2024: SEK 84B 

- FY2025: SEK 89B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 14.3% 

- FY2017: 14.5% 

- FY2018: 14.9% 

- FY2019: 15.7% 

- FY2020: 15.9% 

- FY2021: 15.5% 

- FY2022: 13.7% 

- FY2023: 14.0% 

- FY2024: 14.6% 

- FY2025: 14.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in grocery stores; annual sales are SEK 89.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 89152000000; grossProfit 13132000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXFO.ST: Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it operates Urban Deli, a combination of restaurant, store, and market hall; Apohem, an online retail pharmacy; Matöppet, a personal grocery store and the retailer-owned mini-mart; Snabbgross, a restaurant; and Tempo, a mini-mart format of retailer-owned stores. The company serves restaurants, fast food operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, and other convenience retailers. Axfood AB (publ) was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) operates as a subsidiary of Axretail AB.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14% to 14.7% during 2023–25; it earns 23.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,2.4369386374034714],[2017,4.470819214380245],[2018,20.05114150090416],[2019,0.2964709742908389],[2020,0.15050629347293337],[2021,0.2507078890476292],[2022,0.2126757510629635],[2023,0.21219006780630748],[2024,0.15022297808595345],[2025,0.13005766047962633]]; median 0.23169182005529634. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 14% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.15453179250660726],[2022,0.1372186079429458],[2023,0.13963580772028455]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back SEK 25 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 528000000; owner earnings 1664000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 21000000; upkeep 744000000; owner earnings 1463000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014354066985645933.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 80000000; upkeep 760000000; owner earnings 1553000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.051513200257566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1479000000; owner earnings 1213400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1028000000; owner earnings 1990400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1825000000; owner earnings 1443200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2594000000; owner earnings 571000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1946000000; owner earnings 1555000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1539000000; owner earnings 1549200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1379000000; owner earnings 2495600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,1889000000],[2017,1259000000],[2018,1485000000],[2019,1488000000],[2020,1517000000],[2021,1569000000],[2022,1646000000],[2023,1759000000],[2024,1834000000],[2025,1938000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 25000000 SEK.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 51% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXFO.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 51.036 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17936612652370176. Price 264.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.450796443483013 → FY2025 11.508776848893579. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 141.20 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 134.40 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 143.20 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 143.80 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 138.00 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 134.60 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 140.60 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 145.40 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 140.60 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 136.00 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 140.60 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 139.70 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 151.40 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 157.60 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 158.10 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 158.40 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 153.15 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 142.75 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 162.95 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 163.45 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 172.30 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 178.15 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 174.70 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 166.40 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 163.25 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 158.20 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 151.70 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 158.40 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 170.95 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 173.00 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 174.25 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 182.60 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 183.75 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 203.40 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 205.80 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 209.10 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 207.80 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 206.30 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 208.40 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 199.80 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 179.05 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 202.20 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 207.20 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 211.00 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 203.40 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 197.60 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 191.20 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 205.40 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 207.00 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 195.00 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 191.80 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 201.00 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 201.20 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 208.80 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 212.00 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 228.70 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 236.70 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 233.00 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 228.30 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 209.70 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 210.50 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 245.10 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 260.40 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 236.70 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 248.80 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 306.20 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 291.10 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 286.70 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 294.30 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 322.40 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 321.50 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 254.90 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 273.40 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 282.20 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 285.90 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 268.90 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 250.70 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 253.20 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 254.20 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 234.00 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 228.20 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 268.20 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 264.70 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 250.40 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 246.60 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 261.60 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 273.00 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 263.30 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 289.40 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 311.20 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 285.40 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 278.70 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 278.40 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 265.60 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 273.60 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 286.20 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 237.90 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 233.70 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 234.00 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 238.00 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 228.10 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 225.80 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 270.30 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 279.80 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 279.60 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 292.10 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 298.50 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 292.10 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 259.00 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 270.00 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 290.20 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 305.10 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 329.00 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 321.70 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 281.90 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 263.80 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 257.40 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 243.30 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 244.70 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 259.20 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 260.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 93.73 per share, central SEK 130.47 per share, high SEK 152.45 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 97.52 per share, central SEK 133.12 per share, high SEK 155.72 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 94.94 per share, central SEK 117.66 per share, high SEK 136.94 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 97.22 per share, central SEK 121.22 per share, high SEK 141.58 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 116.56 per share, central SEK 164.72 per share, high SEK 193.38 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 120.39 per share, central SEK 165.04 per share, high SEK 193.52 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 92.10 per share, central SEK 104.79 per share, high SEK 121.70 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 97.88 per share, central SEK 111.38 per share, high SEK 129.35 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 81.26 per share, central SEK 92.46 per share, high SEK 107.37 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 86.15 per share, central SEK 98.03 per share, high SEK 113.84 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300QIXCZWZLHE8L05/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/axfo-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.