# Axon Enterprise (AXON.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXON

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:14.364Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $417.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $56.52 per share, central $63.24 per share, high $72.19 per share. Buy at or below the central value $63.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:14.364Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.9% at the stated quote. About 3.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 4.61×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: -0.01×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: -0.19×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: -0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 40.6%

- FY2017: 12.0%

- FY2018: 28.9%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: -22.6%

- FY2022: 7.3%

- FY2023: 16.8%

- FY2024: 2.9%

- FY2025: -3.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $756M

- Net income, five-year total: $765M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -6.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 21.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 51.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 28.9% vs 2.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.32 to 2.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.9%

- Market cap gain: $44B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $818M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 28.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.01

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.14

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $816M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 28.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.32

- FY2017: $0.10

- FY2018: $0.50

- FY2019: $0.01

- FY2020: -$0.03

- FY2021: -$0.91

- FY2022: $2.03

- FY2023: $2.33

- FY2024: $4.80

- FY2025: $1.52

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.78×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 300.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.69×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.48×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.2%

- FY2017: -3.9%

- FY2018: -4.8%

- FY2019: -7.7%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: -10.9%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -0.4%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 50% since Jun 2025 · "AXON has been subject to rising operating costs and expenses over time." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +33.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.725Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 26.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-08: Axon Enterprise (NasdaqGS:AXON) Increases 2025 Revenue Guidance Despite Lower Q1 Net Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axon-enterprise-nasdaqgs-axon-increases-174755855.html))

- 2025-06-14: Axon Enterprise's SWOT analysis: stock's AI push drives growth amid valuation concerns ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/axon-enterprises-swot-analysis-stocks-ai-push-drives-growth-amid-valuation-concerns-93CH-4096057))

- 2025-11-04: Taser-maker Axon Enterprise misses profit estimates amid tariff woes, shares tumble ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taser-maker-axon-enterprise-misses-220037718.html))

- 2026-02-24: Axon Takes Aim At AI Fears, Targets $6 Billion In 2028 Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/061574cc-b4c0-38a5-98d8-16e8db20a70b/axon-takes-aim-at-ai-fears%2C.html))

- 2026-05-06: Axon raises annual revenue growth forecast on strong software, security device demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/axon-raises-annual-revenue-growth-205342889.html))

- 2026-08-06: AXON Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Higher Revenue Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/axon-q2-earnings-call-highlights-140000126.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +33.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $268M 

- FY2017: $344M 

- FY2018: $420M 

- FY2019: $531M 

- FY2020: $681M 

- FY2021: $863M 

- FY2022: $1.2B 

- FY2023: $1.6B 

- FY2024: $2.1B 

- FY2025: $2.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 63.6% 

- FY2017: 60.2% 

- FY2018: 61.6% 

- FY2019: 57.9% 

- FY2020: 61.1% 

- FY2021: 61.5% 

- FY2022: 61.2% 

- FY2023: 61.2% 

- FY2024: 59.6% 

- FY2025: 59.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 2.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 2779536000; grossProfit 1658125000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXON.US: Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 59.6% to 61.2% during 2023–25; it earns 5.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 61.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4058050798089246],[2017,0.1199154283123911],[2018,0.2888676036935793],[2019,-0.018569657949491607],[2020,-0.027035949577718228],[2021,-0.2256453029574067],[2022,0.07257182791459703],[2023,0.1682061387592516],[2024,0.029124528595634396],[2025,-0.02990794331578473]]; median 0.050848178255115714. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 61% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6151235665366739],[2022,0.612334287166946],[2023,0.6121955610915365]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 42.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 1 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 4794000; upkeep 3658000; owner earnings 17297000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2771578886512112.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 3402000; upkeep 8041000; owner earnings 5207000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6533512579220281.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 1082000; upkeep 10615000; owner earnings 29205000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03704845060777264.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 4982000; upkeep 11361000; owner earnings 882000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.648526077097506.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 31728000; upkeep 24381000; owner earnings 147139000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21563283697727997.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 40320000; upkeep 19315000; owner earnings 175783000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22937371645722282.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 30360000; upkeep 48425000; owner earnings 377034000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08052324193574055.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 53097000; upkeep 83161000; owner earnings 124911000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4250786560030742.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,602970000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXON.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.506 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We substantially depend on sales of our CEDs" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); We substantially depend on sales of our CEDs

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 26.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 15.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3784672272039199. Price 417.19; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.3648193564918189 → FY2025 1.5164623042369796. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $22.38 per share

- 2016-11: $27.23 per share

- 2016-12: $24.24 per share

- 2017-01: $24.98 per share

- 2017-02: $25.67 per share

- 2017-03: $22.79 per share

- 2017-04: $24.58 per share

- 2017-05: $24.01 per share

- 2017-06: $25.14 per share

- 2017-07: $24.59 per share

- 2017-08: $21.71 per share

- 2017-09: $22.67 per share

- 2017-10: $22.97 per share

- 2017-11: $24.88 per share

- 2017-12: $26.50 per share

- 2018-01: $26.46 per share

- 2018-02: $34.83 per share

- 2018-03: $39.31 per share

- 2018-04: $41.98 per share

- 2018-05: $63.68 per share

- 2018-06: $63.18 per share

- 2018-07: $67.93 per share

- 2018-08: $68.26 per share

- 2018-09: $68.43 per share

- 2018-10: $61.72 per share

- 2018-11: $43.47 per share

- 2018-12: $43.75 per share

- 2019-01: $51.01 per share

- 2019-02: $53.83 per share

- 2019-03: $54.41 per share

- 2019-04: $63.50 per share

- 2019-05: $66.78 per share

- 2019-06: $64.21 per share

- 2019-07: $70.22 per share

- 2019-08: $59.97 per share

- 2019-09: $56.78 per share

- 2019-10: $51.13 per share

- 2019-11: $73.80 per share

- 2019-12: $73.28 per share

- 2020-01: $76.81 per share

- 2020-02: $77.37 per share

- 2020-03: $70.77 per share

- 2020-04: $72.71 per share

- 2020-05: $75.96 per share

- 2020-06: $98.13 per share

- 2020-07: $83.13 per share

- 2020-08: $85.68 per share

- 2020-09: $90.70 per share

- 2020-10: $98.90 per share

- 2020-11: $125.69 per share

- 2020-12: $122.53 per share

- 2021-01: $164.16 per share

- 2021-02: $165.49 per share

- 2021-03: $142.42 per share

- 2021-04: $151.61 per share

- 2021-05: $140.59 per share

- 2021-06: $176.80 per share

- 2021-07: $186.02 per share

- 2021-08: $181.87 per share

- 2021-09: $175.02 per share

- 2021-10: $179.96 per share

- 2021-11: $168.79 per share

- 2021-12: $157.00 per share

- 2022-01: $139.93 per share

- 2022-02: $140.25 per share

- 2022-03: $137.73 per share

- 2022-04: $112.20 per share

- 2022-05: $101.36 per share

- 2022-06: $93.17 per share

- 2022-07: $110.19 per share

- 2022-08: $116.68 per share

- 2022-09: $115.75 per share

- 2022-10: $145.44 per share

- 2022-11: $184.03 per share

- 2022-12: $165.93 per share

- 2023-01: $195.44 per share

- 2023-02: $200.31 per share

- 2023-03: $224.85 per share

- 2023-04: $210.71 per share

- 2023-05: $192.91 per share

- 2023-06: $195.12 per share

- 2023-07: $185.93 per share

- 2023-08: $212.91 per share

- 2023-09: $198.99 per share

- 2023-10: $204.49 per share

- 2023-11: $229.87 per share

- 2023-12: $258.33 per share

- 2024-01: $249.06 per share

- 2024-02: $307.37 per share

- 2024-03: $312.88 per share

- 2024-04: $313.66 per share

- 2024-05: $281.67 per share

- 2024-06: $294.24 per share

- 2024-07: $300.01 per share

- 2024-08: $364.97 per share

- 2024-09: $399.60 per share

- 2024-10: $423.50 per share

- 2024-11: $646.96 per share

- 2024-12: $594.32 per share

- 2025-01: $652.18 per share

- 2025-02: $528.45 per share

- 2025-03: $525.95 per share

- 2025-04: $613.30 per share

- 2025-05: $750.36 per share

- 2025-06: $827.94 per share

- 2025-07: $755.49 per share

- 2025-08: $747.29 per share

- 2025-09: $717.64 per share

- 2025-10: $732.23 per share

- 2025-11: $540.14 per share

- 2025-12: $567.93 per share

- 2026-01: $483.58 per share

- 2026-02: $542.40 per share

- 2026-03: $424.69 per share

- 2026-04: $401.76 per share

- 2026-05: $448.72 per share

- 2026-06: $560.61 per share

- 2026-07: $527.76 per share

- 2026-08: $566.56 per share

- 2026-09: $422.52 per share

- 2026-10: $413.35 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.48 per share, central $14.31 per share, high $16.53 per share

- FY2017: low $8.42 per share, central $9.38 per share, high $10.67 per share

- FY2018: low $12.74 per share, central $15.68 per share, high $17.39 per share

- FY2019: low $11.90 per share, central $12.76 per share, high $13.91 per share

- FY2020: low $10.70 per share, central $10.95 per share, high $11.29 per share

- FY2021: low $6.73 per share, central $6.85 per share, high $6.93 per share

- FY2022: low $13.48 per share, central $13.64 per share, high $13.73 per share

- FY2023: low $17.55 per share, central $17.75 per share, high $17.87 per share

- FY2024: low $52.62 per share, central $70.01 per share, high $80.14 per share

- FY2025: low $61.59 per share, central $67.31 per share, high $74.94 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069183/000162828026011360/axon-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.