# American Express (AXP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T19:03:33.431Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $313.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $135.10 per share, central $168.88 per share, high $225.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value $168.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T19:03:33.431Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.26×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.3B

- FY2017: $2.6B

- FY2018: $6.8B

- FY2019: $6.8B

- FY2020: $3.1B

- FY2021: $7.9B

- FY2022: $7.4B

- FY2023: $8.3B

- FY2024: $10.0B

- FY2025: $11B

### moat: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 35.1%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 18.4%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 31.4%

- FY2017: 18.4%

- FY2018: 36.4%

- FY2019: 34.7%

- FY2020: 16.6%

- FY2021: 43.6%

- FY2022: 35.6%

- FY2023: 34.2%

- FY2024: 38.5%

- FY2025: 37.5%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 17.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $17.79

- Ending book value per share: $40.96

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.3%

- FY2017: -1.4%

- FY2018: 41.3%

- FY2019: 17.1%

- FY2020: 5.7%

- FY2021: 9.0%

- FY2022: 26.7%

- FY2023: 28.0%

- FY2024: 19.6%

- FY2025: 20.0%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -3.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.93×

- Book value created per share: $23.17

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $12.01

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 93

- FY2017: 88

- FY2018: 87

- FY2019: 83

- FY2020: 82

- FY2021: 78

- FY2022: 76

- FY2023: 74

- FY2024: 72

- FY2025: 71

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Guy Spier](https://gigainvestors.com/aq): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price is 2.9 times annual sales · "Management raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to 10% but kept earnings guidance unchanged." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · net income +7.1%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

The price is 2.9 times annual sales

- 2025-04-21: American Express Faces Slower Revenue Growth on Tariffs, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-express-faces-slower-revenue-160050025.html))

- 2025-07-18: American Express Shares Plunge After Core Revenue Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-express-shares-plunge-core-183027570.html))

- 2025-10-17: American Express beats Q3 expectations, raises full-year guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-express-beats-q3-expectations-114628821.html))

- 2026-01-30: AXP Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates on Rising Customer Engagement Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axp-q4-earnings-lag-estimates-182800220.html))

- 2026-04-23: American Express beats Q1 estimates but shares slip on cautious outlook, investment plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/american-express-beats-q1-estimates-143900737.html))

- 2026-06-15: American Express Shares Edge Higher on Planned $700 Million TheFork Acquisition (AXP) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/american-express-shares-edge-higher-134110292.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +7.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2016: $5.3B 

- FY2017: $2.6B 

- FY2018: $6.8B 

- FY2019: $6.8B 

- FY2020: $3.1B 

- FY2021: $7.9B 

- FY2022: $7.4B 

- FY2023: $8.3B 

- FY2024: $10.0B 

- FY2025: $11B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are USD 72.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 72229000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); AXP.US: American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. The company offers credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, and lifestyle and expense management products and services; and banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending. It also provides merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, as well as network services. The company offers its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers and business partners, in-house sales teams, direct mail, telephone, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

It earns 35.1% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.3143780677600862],[2017,0.1843517034766251],[2018,0.36385568005146623],[2019,0.3468110216019293],[2020,0.1661631419939577],[2021,0.43567026194144837],[2022,0.3561287838683286],[2023,0.34229301476688234],[2024,0.38510441550435387],[2025,0.3753288204552629]]; median 0.3514699027351289. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,1207000000],[2017,1251000000],[2018,1324000000],[2019,1422000000],[2020,1474000000],[2021,1448000000],[2022,1565000000],[2023,1780000000],[2024,1999000000],[2025,2271000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: cash repurchases 5814000000 USD.

### What could break it

"Interest rate changes could materially adversely affect our earnings." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); Interest rate changes could materially adversely affect our earnings.

### What the price says

The price is 2.9 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Closing price 302.09 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 103.77729885057471; price multiple 2.9109449113237065. FY2025 cash earnings/share 13.841954022988507. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $66.42 per share

- 2016-11: $72.04 per share

- 2016-12: $74.08 per share

- 2017-01: $76.38 per share

- 2017-02: $80.06 per share

- 2017-03: $79.11 per share

- 2017-04: $79.25 per share

- 2017-05: $76.94 per share

- 2017-06: $84.24 per share

- 2017-07: $85.23 per share

- 2017-08: $86.10 per share

- 2017-09: $90.46 per share

- 2017-10: $95.52 per share

- 2017-11: $97.71 per share

- 2017-12: $99.31 per share

- 2018-01: $99.40 per share

- 2018-02: $97.51 per share

- 2018-03: $93.28 per share

- 2018-04: $98.75 per share

- 2018-05: $98.30 per share

- 2018-06: $98.00 per share

- 2018-07: $99.52 per share

- 2018-08: $105.98 per share

- 2018-09: $106.49 per share

- 2018-10: $102.73 per share

- 2018-11: $112.27 per share

- 2018-12: $95.32 per share

- 2019-01: $102.70 per share

- 2019-02: $107.74 per share

- 2019-03: $109.30 per share

- 2019-04: $117.23 per share

- 2019-05: $114.71 per share

- 2019-06: $123.44 per share

- 2019-07: $124.37 per share

- 2019-08: $120.37 per share

- 2019-09: $118.28 per share

- 2019-10: $117.28 per share

- 2019-11: $120.12 per share

- 2019-12: $124.49 per share

- 2020-01: $129.87 per share

- 2020-02: $109.93 per share

- 2020-03: $85.61 per share

- 2020-04: $91.25 per share

- 2020-05: $95.07 per share

- 2020-06: $95.20 per share

- 2020-07: $93.32 per share

- 2020-08: $101.59 per share

- 2020-09: $100.25 per share

- 2020-10: $91.24 per share

- 2020-11: $118.59 per share

- 2020-12: $120.91 per share

- 2021-01: $116.26 per share

- 2021-02: $135.26 per share

- 2021-03: $141.44 per share

- 2021-04: $153.35 per share

- 2021-05: $160.13 per share

- 2021-06: $165.23 per share

- 2021-07: $170.53 per share

- 2021-08: $165.96 per share

- 2021-09: $167.53 per share

- 2021-10: $173.78 per share

- 2021-11: $152.30 per share

- 2021-12: $163.60 per share

- 2022-01: $179.82 per share

- 2022-02: $194.54 per share

- 2022-03: $187.00 per share

- 2022-04: $174.71 per share

- 2022-05: $168.82 per share

- 2022-06: $138.62 per share

- 2022-07: $154.02 per share

- 2022-08: $152.00 per share

- 2022-09: $134.91 per share

- 2022-10: $148.45 per share

- 2022-11: $157.59 per share

- 2022-12: $147.75 per share

- 2023-01: $174.93 per share

- 2023-02: $173.99 per share

- 2023-03: $164.95 per share

- 2023-04: $161.34 per share

- 2023-05: $158.56 per share

- 2023-06: $174.20 per share

- 2023-07: $168.88 per share

- 2023-08: $157.99 per share

- 2023-09: $149.19 per share

- 2023-10: $146.03 per share

- 2023-11: $170.77 per share

- 2023-12: $187.34 per share

- 2024-01: $200.74 per share

- 2024-02: $219.42 per share

- 2024-03: $227.69 per share

- 2024-04: $234.03 per share

- 2024-05: $240.00 per share

- 2024-06: $231.55 per share

- 2024-07: $253.04 per share

- 2024-08: $258.65 per share

- 2024-09: $271.20 per share

- 2024-10: $270.08 per share

- 2024-11: $304.68 per share

- 2024-12: $296.79 per share

- 2025-01: $317.45 per share

- 2025-02: $300.96 per share

- 2025-03: $269.05 per share

- 2025-04: $266.41 per share

- 2025-05: $294.05 per share

- 2025-06: $318.98 per share

- 2025-07: $299.31 per share

- 2025-08: $331.28 per share

- 2025-09: $332.16 per share

- 2025-10: $360.73 per share

- 2025-11: $365.27 per share

- 2025-12: $369.95 per share

- 2026-01: $352.17 per share

- 2026-02: $308.90 per share

- 2026-03: $302.48 per share

- 2026-04: $323.05 per share

- 2026-05: $316.47 per share

- 2026-06: $338.25 per share

- 2026-07: $336.25 per share

- 2026-08: $330.17 per share

- 2026-09: $306.33 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $69.53 per share, central $73.19 per share, high $73.19 per share

- FY2017: low $63.05 per share, central $66.37 per share, high $66.37 per share

- FY2018: low $83.19 per share, central $87.57 per share, high $87.57 per share

- FY2019: low $90.76 per share, central $95.53 per share, high $95.53 per share

- FY2020: low $53.20 per share, central $58.52 per share, high $65.02 per share

- FY2021: low $89.80 per share, central $94.52 per share, high $94.52 per share

- FY2022: low $105.84 per share, central $111.42 per share, high $111.42 per share

- FY2023: low $126.19 per share, central $132.83 per share, high $132.83 per share

- FY2024: low $140.09 per share, central $147.47 per share, high $147.47 per share

- FY2025: low $155.66 per share, central $163.86 per share, high $163.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000080/axp-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.