Profits were positive in 8 years (at least 8 needed).
- 10y median
- $314M
- Worst year
- -$416M
- Latest · 2025
- $979M
# AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXS Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:43.373Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $97.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $35.11 per share, central $41.00 per share, high $49.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:43.373Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 8 - Required profitable years: 8 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 1.32× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $465M - FY2017: -$416M - FY2018: $396K - FY2019: $282M - FY2020: -$151M - FY2021: $588M - FY2022: $193M - FY2023: $346M - FY2024: $1.1B - FY2025: $979M ### moat: fail - Common book per share - median return on common equity below threshold - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 6.6% - Required median return: 10.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: No - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -3.2% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 9.0% - FY2017: -9.1% - FY2018: 0.0% - FY2019: 5.9% - FY2020: -3.2% - FY2021: 12.1% - FY2022: 4.7% - FY2023: 7.3% - FY2024: 19.0% - FY2025: 16.9% ### economics: fail - Common book per share - book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 6.4% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: $52.59 - Ending book value per share: $73.25 Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 9.7% - FY2017: -0.6% - FY2018: -3.8% - FY2019: 14.7% - FY2020: 2.7% - FY2021: 4.2% - FY2022: -13.2% - FY2023: 18.5% - FY2024: 21.9% - FY2025: 15.4% ### management: pass - Common book per share - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.3% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.3% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.2% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book value created per share: $20.67 - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: -$6.83 ### accounting: pass - Financial accounting warning count: 0 - Known restatement years: 0 ## Holders - [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever · "AXS Q2 Deep Dive: Robust Underwriting Drives Record EPS and Premium Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · net income -6.9% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.339Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever - 2025-05-01: AXIS Capital Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axis-capital-q1-earnings-beat-142500232.html)) - 2025-08-12: AXS Q2 Deep Dive: Robust Underwriting Drives Record EPS and Premium Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axs-q2-deep-dive-robust-050222799.html)) - 2026-07-29: AXIS Capital Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Catastrophe Losses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/axis-capital-q2-earnings-miss-170600989.html)) ### Net income · FY2025 net income -6.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27. - FY2016: $465M - FY2017: -$416M - FY2018: $396K - FY2019: $282M - FY2020: -$151M - FY2021: $588M - FY2022: $193M - FY2023: $346M - FY2024: $1.1B - FY2025: $979M ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in insurance specialty; annual sales are USD 6.6 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm#000121481626000097 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 6563678000. ### Why customers stay It earns 6.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.0904460217601164],[2017,-0.09105452509973141],[2018,0.00009306542711038194],[2019,0.05920749136927428],[2020,-0.031749623974912836],[2021,0.12104518402454319],[2022,0.047148470259736765],[2023,0.07341981958738826],[2024,0.1898292209289164],[2025,0.16854541556049452]]; median 0.06631365547833126. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 887.7 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,172232000],[2017,187876000],[2018,176127000],[2019,179834000],[2020,173421000],[2021,175853000],[2022,179591000],[2023,184025000],[2024,182015000],[2025,172982000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 887717000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.9% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.881 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Price 97.93; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 2.441207984734922; discount 0.1; growth 0.07507190866195322. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $56.97 per share - 2016-11: $61.01 per share - 2016-12: $65.27 per share - 2017-01: $64.01 per share - 2017-02: $69.30 per share - 2017-03: $67.03 per share - 2017-04: $65.90 per share - 2017-05: $65.58 per share - 2017-06: $64.66 per share - 2017-07: $64.58 per share - 2017-08: $60.24 per share - 2017-09: $57.31 per share - 2017-10: $54.39 per share - 2017-11: $52.39 per share - 2017-12: $50.26 per share - 2018-01: $50.53 per share - 2018-02: $49.34 per share - 2018-03: $57.57 per share - 2018-04: $58.70 per share - 2018-05: $56.85 per share - 2018-06: $55.62 per share - 2018-07: $56.56 per share - 2018-08: $57.52 per share - 2018-09: $57.71 per share - 2018-10: $55.79 per share - 2018-11: $55.35 per share - 2018-12: $51.64 per share - 2019-01: $53.55 per share - 2019-02: $57.07 per share - 2019-03: $54.78 per share - 2019-04: $56.85 per share - 2019-05: $59.58 per share - 2019-06: $59.65 per share - 2019-07: $63.67 per share - 2019-08: $61.39 per share - 2019-09: $66.72 per share - 2019-10: $59.43 per share - 2019-11: $59.18 per share - 2019-12: $59.44 per share - 2020-01: $64.25 per share - 2020-02: $56.12 per share - 2020-03: $38.65 per share - 2020-04: $36.60 per share - 2020-05: $37.54 per share - 2020-06: $40.56 per share - 2020-07: $40.12 per share - 2020-08: $47.76 per share - 2020-09: $44.04 per share - 2020-10: $42.69 per share - 2020-11: $50.11 per share - 2020-12: $50.39 per share - 2021-01: $45.90 per share - 2021-02: $50.53 per share - 2021-03: $49.57 per share - 2021-04: $55.80 per share - 2021-05: $53.64 per share - 2021-06: $49.01 per share - 2021-07: $50.87 per share - 2021-08: $51.17 per share - 2021-09: $46.04 per share - 2021-10: $52.07 per share - 2021-11: $49.68 per share - 2021-12: $54.47 per share - 2022-01: $56.98 per share - 2022-02: $54.62 per share - 2022-03: $60.47 per share - 2022-04: $57.33 per share - 2022-05: $58.57 per share - 2022-06: $57.09 per share - 2022-07: $50.49 per share - 2022-08: $53.15 per share - 2022-09: $49.15 per share - 2022-10: $54.67 per share - 2022-11: $57.56 per share - 2022-12: $54.17 per share - 2023-01: $62.57 per share - 2023-02: $60.72 per share - 2023-03: $54.52 per share - 2023-04: $56.54 per share - 2023-05: $51.90 per share - 2023-06: $53.83 per share - 2023-07: $55.12 per share - 2023-08: $54.86 per share - 2023-09: $56.37 per share - 2023-10: $57.10 per share - 2023-11: $56.34 per share - 2023-12: $55.37 per share - 2024-01: $59.52 per share - 2024-02: $62.57 per share - 2024-03: $65.02 per share - 2024-04: $61.33 per share - 2024-05: $73.88 per share - 2024-06: $70.65 per share - 2024-07: $75.75 per share - 2024-08: $79.88 per share - 2024-09: $79.61 per share - 2024-10: $78.26 per share - 2024-11: $93.04 per share - 2024-12: $88.62 per share - 2025-01: $91.02 per share - 2025-02: $96.88 per share - 2025-03: $100.24 per share - 2025-04: $96.32 per share - 2025-05: $103.80 per share - 2025-06: $103.82 per share - 2025-07: $93.84 per share - 2025-08: $98.58 per share - 2025-09: $95.80 per share - 2025-10: $93.66 per share - 2025-11: $102.24 per share - 2025-12: $107.09 per share - 2026-01: $103.18 per share - 2026-02: $105.72 per share - 2026-03: $101.41 per share - 2026-04: $100.41 per share - 2026-05: $94.93 per share - 2026-06: $107.44 per share - 2026-07: $105.32 per share - 2026-08: $98.78 per share - 2026-09: $94.20 per share - 2026-10: $97.93 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $63.69 per share, central $70.06 per share, high $77.84 per share - FY2017: low $40.91 per share, central $51.14 per share, high $68.19 per share - FY2018: low $38.54 per share, central $48.17 per share, high $64.23 per share - FY2019: low $36.57 per share, central $45.71 per share, high $60.95 per share - FY2020: low $22.26 per share, central $26.70 per share, high $33.35 per share - FY2021: low $35.45 per share, central $44.32 per share, high $59.09 per share - FY2022: low $33.41 per share, central $36.75 per share, high $40.83 per share - FY2023: low $23.61 per share, central $27.58 per share, high $33.15 per share - FY2024: low $28.02 per share, central $32.73 per share, high $39.33 per share - FY2025: low $31.54 per share, central $36.83 per share, high $44.27 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
AXS · US
Not a wonderful business
2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Profits were positive in 8 years (at least 8 needed).
Earned a median 6.6% on equity (minimum 10%).
Book value plus dividends grew 6.4% a year (minimum 7%).
Ordinary share growth was -2.3% over the full period and -1.2% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).
0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
Profit record · pass 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 9.57 USD.
| Value range | $35.11 – $49.28 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $41.00 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 97.93 / 41.00 = -138.8% |
| Return / year | About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book USD 86.00/share; ROE 6.9%; first payout USD 2.44/share, growing 4.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |