# AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:43.373Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $97.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $35.11 per share, central $41.00 per share, high $49.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:43.373Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 8

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 1.32×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $465M

- FY2017: -$416M

- FY2018: $396K

- FY2019: $282M

- FY2020: -$151M

- FY2021: $588M

- FY2022: $193M

- FY2023: $346M

- FY2024: $1.1B

- FY2025: $979M

### moat: fail

- Common book per share

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 6.6%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -3.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: 5.9%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: 12.1%

- FY2022: 4.7%

- FY2023: 7.3%

- FY2024: 19.0%

- FY2025: 16.9%

### economics: fail

- Common book per share

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 6.4%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $52.59

- Ending book value per share: $73.25

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.7%

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: 14.7%

- FY2020: 2.7%

- FY2021: 4.2%

- FY2022: -13.2%

- FY2023: 18.5%

- FY2024: 21.9%

- FY2025: 15.4%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.3%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.2%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book value created per share: $20.67

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: -$6.83

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever · "AXS Q2 Deep Dive: Robust Underwriting Drives Record EPS and Premium Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · net income -6.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.339Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever

- 2025-05-01: AXIS Capital Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axis-capital-q1-earnings-beat-142500232.html))

- 2025-08-12: AXS Q2 Deep Dive: Robust Underwriting Drives Record EPS and Premium Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axs-q2-deep-dive-robust-050222799.html))

- 2026-07-29: AXIS Capital Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Catastrophe Losses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/axis-capital-q2-earnings-miss-170600989.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income -6.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $465M 

- FY2017: -$416M 

- FY2018: $396K 

- FY2019: $282M 

- FY2020: -$151M 

- FY2021: $588M 

- FY2022: $193M 

- FY2023: $346M 

- FY2024: $1.1B 

- FY2025: $979M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance specialty; annual sales are USD 6.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm#000121481626000097 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 6563678000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 6.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.0904460217601164],[2017,-0.09105452509973141],[2018,0.00009306542711038194],[2019,0.05920749136927428],[2020,-0.031749623974912836],[2021,0.12104518402454319],[2022,0.047148470259736765],[2023,0.07341981958738826],[2024,0.1898292209289164],[2025,0.16854541556049452]]; median 0.06631365547833126. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 887.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,172232000],[2017,187876000],[2018,176127000],[2019,179834000],[2020,173421000],[2021,175853000],[2022,179591000],[2023,184025000],[2024,182015000],[2025,172982000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 887717000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.881 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.5% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Price 97.93; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 2.441207984734922; discount 0.1; growth 0.07507190866195322. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $56.97 per share

- 2016-11: $61.01 per share

- 2016-12: $65.27 per share

- 2017-01: $64.01 per share

- 2017-02: $69.30 per share

- 2017-03: $67.03 per share

- 2017-04: $65.90 per share

- 2017-05: $65.58 per share

- 2017-06: $64.66 per share

- 2017-07: $64.58 per share

- 2017-08: $60.24 per share

- 2017-09: $57.31 per share

- 2017-10: $54.39 per share

- 2017-11: $52.39 per share

- 2017-12: $50.26 per share

- 2018-01: $50.53 per share

- 2018-02: $49.34 per share

- 2018-03: $57.57 per share

- 2018-04: $58.70 per share

- 2018-05: $56.85 per share

- 2018-06: $55.62 per share

- 2018-07: $56.56 per share

- 2018-08: $57.52 per share

- 2018-09: $57.71 per share

- 2018-10: $55.79 per share

- 2018-11: $55.35 per share

- 2018-12: $51.64 per share

- 2019-01: $53.55 per share

- 2019-02: $57.07 per share

- 2019-03: $54.78 per share

- 2019-04: $56.85 per share

- 2019-05: $59.58 per share

- 2019-06: $59.65 per share

- 2019-07: $63.67 per share

- 2019-08: $61.39 per share

- 2019-09: $66.72 per share

- 2019-10: $59.43 per share

- 2019-11: $59.18 per share

- 2019-12: $59.44 per share

- 2020-01: $64.25 per share

- 2020-02: $56.12 per share

- 2020-03: $38.65 per share

- 2020-04: $36.60 per share

- 2020-05: $37.54 per share

- 2020-06: $40.56 per share

- 2020-07: $40.12 per share

- 2020-08: $47.76 per share

- 2020-09: $44.04 per share

- 2020-10: $42.69 per share

- 2020-11: $50.11 per share

- 2020-12: $50.39 per share

- 2021-01: $45.90 per share

- 2021-02: $50.53 per share

- 2021-03: $49.57 per share

- 2021-04: $55.80 per share

- 2021-05: $53.64 per share

- 2021-06: $49.01 per share

- 2021-07: $50.87 per share

- 2021-08: $51.17 per share

- 2021-09: $46.04 per share

- 2021-10: $52.07 per share

- 2021-11: $49.68 per share

- 2021-12: $54.47 per share

- 2022-01: $56.98 per share

- 2022-02: $54.62 per share

- 2022-03: $60.47 per share

- 2022-04: $57.33 per share

- 2022-05: $58.57 per share

- 2022-06: $57.09 per share

- 2022-07: $50.49 per share

- 2022-08: $53.15 per share

- 2022-09: $49.15 per share

- 2022-10: $54.67 per share

- 2022-11: $57.56 per share

- 2022-12: $54.17 per share

- 2023-01: $62.57 per share

- 2023-02: $60.72 per share

- 2023-03: $54.52 per share

- 2023-04: $56.54 per share

- 2023-05: $51.90 per share

- 2023-06: $53.83 per share

- 2023-07: $55.12 per share

- 2023-08: $54.86 per share

- 2023-09: $56.37 per share

- 2023-10: $57.10 per share

- 2023-11: $56.34 per share

- 2023-12: $55.37 per share

- 2024-01: $59.52 per share

- 2024-02: $62.57 per share

- 2024-03: $65.02 per share

- 2024-04: $61.33 per share

- 2024-05: $73.88 per share

- 2024-06: $70.65 per share

- 2024-07: $75.75 per share

- 2024-08: $79.88 per share

- 2024-09: $79.61 per share

- 2024-10: $78.26 per share

- 2024-11: $93.04 per share

- 2024-12: $88.62 per share

- 2025-01: $91.02 per share

- 2025-02: $96.88 per share

- 2025-03: $100.24 per share

- 2025-04: $96.32 per share

- 2025-05: $103.80 per share

- 2025-06: $103.82 per share

- 2025-07: $93.84 per share

- 2025-08: $98.58 per share

- 2025-09: $95.80 per share

- 2025-10: $93.66 per share

- 2025-11: $102.24 per share

- 2025-12: $107.09 per share

- 2026-01: $103.18 per share

- 2026-02: $105.72 per share

- 2026-03: $101.41 per share

- 2026-04: $100.41 per share

- 2026-05: $94.93 per share

- 2026-06: $107.44 per share

- 2026-07: $105.32 per share

- 2026-08: $98.78 per share

- 2026-09: $94.20 per share

- 2026-10: $97.93 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $63.69 per share, central $70.06 per share, high $77.84 per share

- FY2017: low $40.91 per share, central $51.14 per share, high $68.19 per share

- FY2018: low $38.54 per share, central $48.17 per share, high $64.23 per share

- FY2019: low $36.57 per share, central $45.71 per share, high $60.95 per share

- FY2020: low $22.26 per share, central $26.70 per share, high $33.35 per share

- FY2021: low $35.45 per share, central $44.32 per share, high $59.09 per share

- FY2022: low $33.41 per share, central $36.75 per share, high $40.83 per share

- FY2023: low $23.61 per share, central $27.58 per share, high $33.15 per share

- FY2024: low $28.02 per share, central $32.73 per share, high $39.33 per share

- FY2025: low $31.54 per share, central $36.83 per share, high $44.27 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1214816/000121481626000097/axs-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

AXIS Capital Holdings

AXS · US

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price
$97.93
Buy up to
$41.00
Expected / yr
6.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 8 years (at least 8 needed).

10y median
$314M
Worst year
-$416M
Latest · 2025
$979M

Earned a median 6.6% on equity (minimum 10%).

10y median
6.6%
Worst year
-9.1%
Latest · 2025
16.9%

Book value plus dividends grew 6.4% a year (minimum 7%).

10y median
6.9%
Worst year
-13.2%
Latest · 2025
15.4%

Ordinary share growth was -2.3% over the full period and -1.2% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood
Founder / family5%Pay incentives96%Buyback value5%Acquisition-led3%
Founder or family ownership or board role: 5% estimated likelihood. ; Compensation incentives: 96% estimated likelihood. ; Buybacks described as below intrinsic value: 5% estimated likelihood. ; Acquisitions are the main growth strategy: 3% estimated likelihood.
per-share value change
Passing bar
≥ $0

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood
Control weakness2%Auditor change2%Going concern3%Related parties10%
Material weakness in internal control: 2% estimated likelihood. ; Auditor change within the past three years disclosed: 2% estimated likelihood. ; Going-concern uncertainty: 3% estimated likelihood. ; Material related-party transactions: 10% estimated likelihood.
accounting warnings
0
Passing bar
≤ 0

Profit record · pass 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 9.57 USD.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value range$35.11 – $49.28
Buy at or belowCentral value $41.00
Discount to value1 − 97.93 / 41.00 = -138.8%
Return / yearAbout 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsBook USD 86.00/share; ROE 6.9%; first payout USD 2.44/share, growing 4.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
Net income$979M
$1.1B-$416M20162025
FY2016 · Net income: $465M; FY2017 · Net income: -$416M; FY2018 · Net income: $396K; FY2019 · Net income: $282M; FY2020 · Net income: -$151M; FY2021 · Net income: $588M; FY2022 · Net income: $193M; FY2023 · Net income: $346M; FY2024 · Net income: $1.1B; FY2025 · Net income: $979M
Net income
Book / share$73.25
$73.25$020162025
FY2016 · Book / share: $56.21; FY2017 · Book / share: $54.29; FY2018 · Book / share: $50.65; FY2019 · Book / share: $56.46; FY2020 · Book / share: $56.32; FY2021 · Book / share: $56.99; FY2022 · Book / share: $47.74; FY2023 · Book / share: $54.80; FY2024 · Book / share: $65.03; FY2025 · Book / share: $73.25
Book / share
Dividend / share$1.80
$1.80$020162025
FY2016 · Dividend / share: $1.45; FY2017 · Dividend / share: $1.61; FY2018 · Dividend / share: $1.59; FY2019 · Dividend / share: $1.62; FY2020 · Dividend / share: $1.68; FY2021 · Dividend / share: $1.71; FY2022 · Dividend / share: $1.74; FY2023 · Dividend / share: $1.79; FY2024 · Dividend / share: $1.78; FY2025 · Dividend / share: $1.80
Dividend / share
Return on equity16.9%
19.0%-9.1%20162025
FY2016 · Return on equity: 9.0%; FY2017 · Return on equity: -9.1%; FY2018 · Return on equity: 0.0%; FY2019 · Return on equity: 5.9%; FY2020 · Return on equity: -3.2%; FY2021 · Return on equity: 12.1%; FY2022 · Return on equity: 4.7%; FY2023 · Return on equity: 7.3%; FY2024 · Return on equity: 19.0%; FY2025 · Return on equity: 16.9%
Return on equity
Diluted shares79M
92M020162025
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 92M; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 84M; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 84M; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 84M; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 84M; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 85M; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 86M; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 86M; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 85M; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 79M
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·