# Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXSM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:43.507Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $161.79 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 10

- Operating margin variation: 1.51×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -14.14×

- FY2022: -3.59×

- FY2023: -0.86×

- FY2024: -0.73×

- FY2025: -0.27×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.24×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -69.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -150.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 10

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -2534.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -69.5%

- FY2017: -80.5%

- FY2018: -330.6%

- FY2019: -26.7%

- FY2020: -47.8%

- FY2021: -150.8%

- FY2022: -69.5%

- FY2023: -48.5%

- FY2024: -88.7%

- FY2025: -40.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$1.0B

- Net income, five-year total: -$1.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -78.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 37.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 25.7%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$134M

- FY2022: -$183M

- FY2023: -$233M

- FY2024: -$280M

- FY2025: -$175M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -80.5% vs -48.5%

- Per-share earnings: -1.27 to -5.27 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 15.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Market cap gain: $9.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 15.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$4.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$5.27

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $70M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$1.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -80.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -48.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.42

- FY2017: -$1.27

- FY2018: -$1.15

- FY2019: -$2.01

- FY2020: -$2.77

- FY2021: -$3.59

- FY2022: -$4.60

- FY2023: -$5.27

- FY2024: -$5.99

- FY2025: -$3.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.60×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.5%

- FY2017: -7.0%

- FY2018: -5.9%

- FY2019: -10.0%

- FY2020: -13.1%

- FY2021: -30.4%

- FY2022: -21.3%

- FY2023: -16.0%

- FY2024: -27.9%

- FY2025: -13.0%

## Holders

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Jun 2026 · "Axsome fell after FDA refuses to review AXS-14 application" (seekingalpha.com, Jun 2025) · sales +21.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.420Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-05: AXSM Q2 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Auvelity Drives Revenues Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axsm-q2-loss-narrower-expected-153600945.html))

- 2025-11-04: AXSM Q3 Loss Wider Than Expected, Revenues Surge Y/Y on Auvelity Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axsm-q3-loss-wider-expected-152800727.html))

- 2025-12-31: Axsome Therapeutics Stock Jumps After FDA Grants Priority Review For Alzheimer's Agitation Drug ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9aa9dead-a87f-3e90-8141-6121df73539b/axsome-therapeutics-stock.html))

- 2026-01-02: AXSM Up on FDA Priority Review to AXS-05 sNDA in Alzheimer's Agitation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axsm-fda-priority-review-axs-155400729.html))

- 2026-02-24: AXSM Q4 Loss Wider Than Expected, Revenues Surge Y/Y on Auvelity Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/axsm-q4-loss-wider-expected-170800684.html))

- 2026-05-05: AXSM Q1 Loss Widens, Revenues Jump on Higher Auvelity Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/axsm-q1-loss-widens-revenues-164700321.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +21.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2017: $0 

- FY2018: $0 

- FY2019: $0 

- FY2020: $0 

- FY2021: $8.8M 

- FY2022: $50M 

- FY2023: $271M 

- FY2024: $386M 

- FY2025: $638M 

- FY2026: $777M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 92.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-23.

- FY2022: 89.6% 

- FY2023: 90.4% 

- FY2024: 91.4% 

- FY2025: 92.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in biotechnology; annual sales are USD 638.5 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: revenue 638496000; grossProfit 591018000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXSM.US: Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and delivers novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's commercial product portfolio includes Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), a N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist, sigma-1 receptor agonist, aminoketone, and CYP2D6 inhibitor indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder in adults; Sunosi (solriamfetol), a dopamine and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, trace amine-associated receptor 1 agonist, and 5-HT1A agonist indicated for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness in patients with narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea; and Symbravo (MoSEIC meloxicam rizatriptan), or AXS-07, a rapidly absorbed, multi-mechanistic, selective COX-2 inhibitor, and 5-HT1B/1D agonist indicated for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura. It also develops AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion), an investigational N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist, which has completed Phase III clinical trial to treat Alzheimer's disease agitation, as well as that has completed phase II clinical trial for the treatment of smoking cessation; AXS-12 (reboxetine), a highly selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor and cortical dopamine modulator, which has completed Phase II trial to treat narcolepsy; AXS-14 (esreboxetine), a selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor that has completed Phase III trial for the treatment of fibromyalgia and other conditions; and Solriamfetol, a dopamine and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial for treating attention deficit hyperactivity, major depressive, binge eating, and excessive sleepiness associated with shift work disorder. It has a research collaboration agreement with Duke University for evaluating AXS-05 in a Phase 2 clinical trial in smoking cessation treatment. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 90.4% to 92.6% during 2023–25; it lost 69.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 90.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 91.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 92.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.6949420655156399],[2017,-0.8052587455994606],[2018,-3.3061118549677118],[2019,-0.2674133982916944],[2020,-0.4778124342979795],[2021,-1.507754360545308],[2022,-0.6954622502937721],[2023,-0.48533784374677025],[2024,-0.8866823218786254],[2025,-0.40564231317697746]]; median -0.695202157904706. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,43980969],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 15.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXSM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 15.082 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 12.6 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-23); Closing price 161.79 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 12.83481848960357; price multiple 12.60555419081717. FY2025 cash earnings/share -3.5095458078044146. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $6.70 per share

- 2016-11: $6.55 per share

- 2016-12: $6.75 per share

- 2017-01: $4.90 per share

- 2017-02: $4.55 per share

- 2017-03: $3.90 per share

- 2017-04: $4.10 per share

- 2017-05: $3.85 per share

- 2017-06: $5.50 per share

- 2017-07: $6.10 per share

- 2017-08: $5.10 per share

- 2017-09: $5.55 per share

- 2017-10: $4.75 per share

- 2017-11: $5.65 per share

- 2017-12: $5.60 per share

- 2018-01: $2.80 per share

- 2018-02: $2.55 per share

- 2018-03: $2.45 per share

- 2018-04: $3.40 per share

- 2018-05: $3.35 per share

- 2018-06: $3.20 per share

- 2018-07: $2.63 per share

- 2018-08: $3.45 per share

- 2018-09: $3.45 per share

- 2018-10: $3.87 per share

- 2018-11: $3.26 per share

- 2018-12: $2.82 per share

- 2019-01: $8.39 per share

- 2019-02: $7.96 per share

- 2019-03: $14.23 per share

- 2019-04: $17.73 per share

- 2019-05: $22.96 per share

- 2019-06: $25.75 per share

- 2019-07: $25.50 per share

- 2019-08: $25.45 per share

- 2019-09: $20.24 per share

- 2019-10: $24.08 per share

- 2019-11: $39.37 per share

- 2019-12: $103.36 per share

- 2020-01: $86.82 per share

- 2020-02: $78.00 per share

- 2020-03: $58.83 per share

- 2020-04: $95.03 per share

- 2020-05: $76.98 per share

- 2020-06: $82.28 per share

- 2020-07: $71.33 per share

- 2020-08: $73.31 per share

- 2020-09: $71.25 per share

- 2020-10: $66.31 per share

- 2020-11: $72.49 per share

- 2020-12: $81.47 per share

- 2021-01: $68.09 per share

- 2021-02: $67.36 per share

- 2021-03: $56.62 per share

- 2021-04: $60.46 per share

- 2021-05: $60.71 per share

- 2021-06: $67.46 per share

- 2021-07: $48.59 per share

- 2021-08: $25.68 per share

- 2021-09: $32.96 per share

- 2021-10: $38.50 per share

- 2021-11: $34.54 per share

- 2021-12: $37.78 per share

- 2022-01: $27.44 per share

- 2022-02: $28.11 per share

- 2022-03: $41.39 per share

- 2022-04: $31.75 per share

- 2022-05: $25.00 per share

- 2022-06: $38.30 per share

- 2022-07: $38.59 per share

- 2022-08: $63.80 per share

- 2022-09: $44.62 per share

- 2022-10: $45.15 per share

- 2022-11: $72.29 per share

- 2022-12: $77.13 per share

- 2023-01: $75.00 per share

- 2023-02: $68.19 per share

- 2023-03: $61.68 per share

- 2023-04: $71.53 per share

- 2023-05: $73.78 per share

- 2023-06: $71.86 per share

- 2023-07: $78.47 per share

- 2023-08: $80.80 per share

- 2023-09: $69.89 per share

- 2023-10: $62.28 per share

- 2023-11: $67.45 per share

- 2023-12: $79.59 per share

- 2024-01: $90.03 per share

- 2024-02: $81.38 per share

- 2024-03: $79.80 per share

- 2024-04: $73.76 per share

- 2024-05: $73.43 per share

- 2024-06: $80.50 per share

- 2024-07: $87.31 per share

- 2024-08: $88.86 per share

- 2024-09: $89.87 per share

- 2024-10: $89.03 per share

- 2024-11: $98.22 per share

- 2024-12: $84.61 per share

- 2025-01: $106.46 per share

- 2025-02: $127.54 per share

- 2025-03: $116.63 per share

- 2025-04: $112.29 per share

- 2025-05: $105.16 per share

- 2025-06: $104.39 per share

- 2025-07: $101.38 per share

- 2025-08: $121.28 per share

- 2025-09: $121.45 per share

- 2025-10: $134.99 per share

- 2025-11: $151.50 per share

- 2025-12: $182.64 per share

- 2026-01: $184.25 per share

- 2026-02: $163.89 per share

- 2026-03: $169.02 per share

- 2026-04: $207.75 per share

- 2026-05: $234.48 per share

- 2026-06: $244.77 per share

- 2026-07: $217.99 per share

- 2026-08: $198.52 per share

- 2026-09: $184.39 per share

- 2026-10: $161.79 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579428/000119312526064267/axsm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.