# Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AXTA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:43.713Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $33.73 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $26.99 per share, central $30.37 per share, high $34.88 per share. Buy at or below the central value $30.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:43.713Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.2% at the stated quote. About 9.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.15×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 34.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.1%

- FY2017: 7.5%

- FY2018: 11.2%

- FY2019: 12.2%

- FY2020: 11.0%

- FY2021: 12.3%

- FY2022: 10.5%

- FY2023: 14.6%

- FY2024: 17.4%

- FY2025: 16.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.40×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.79×

- FY2023: 1.51×

- FY2024: 1.36×

- FY2025: 1.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.28×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.1% vs 16.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.16 to 1.74 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $470M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 34.9%

- Per-share value change: $1.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.74

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.16

- FY2017: $0.15

- FY2018: $0.85

- FY2019: $1.06

- FY2020: $0.52

- FY2021: $1.14

- FY2022: $0.86

- FY2023: $1.21

- FY2024: $1.77

- FY2025: $1.74

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.25×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.9%

- FY2017: -7.4%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -3.6%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.3% a year for ten years · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.449Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Axalta shares flat as record adjusted earnings offset revenue miss ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/axalta-shares-flat-as-record-adjusted-earnings-offset-revenue-miss-93CH-4159344))

- 2025-11-18: Axalta jumps 13% on merger with Akzo Nobel, building $25 billion paint giant ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4523188-axalta-jumps-13-on-merger-with-akzo-nobel-building-25-billion-paint-giant?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-10: Axalta targets $1.14B–$1.17B adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as merger with AkzoNobel advances ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4549659-axalta-targets-1_14b-1_17b-adjusted-ebitda-in-2026-as-merger-with-akzonobel-advances?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-10: Sherwin-Williams, Axalta Coating cut at Wells Fargo as Iran war raises raw materials costs ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574140-sherwin-williams-axalta-coating-cut-at-wells-fargo-as-iran-war-raises-raw-materials-costs?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $4.4B 

- FY2018: $4.7B 

- FY2019: $4.5B 

- FY2020: $3.7B 

- FY2021: $4.4B 

- FY2022: $4.9B 

- FY2023: $5.2B 

- FY2024: $5.3B 

- FY2025: $5.1B 

- FY2026: $5.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 38.2% 

- FY2017: 36.5% 

- FY2018: 33.9% 

- FY2019: 34.9% 

- FY2020: 34.2% 

- FY2021: 32.4% 

- FY2022: 29.0% 

- FY2024: 34.1% 

- FY2025: 32.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are USD 5.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 5117000000; grossProfit 1670000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXTA.US: Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings. It also offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturers (OEM) dealership body shops. In addition, the company provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture applications under the Imron Industrial, Tufcote Industrial, Corlar Industrial, Strenex Industrial, PercoTop, Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Ceranamel, Alesta, Teodur, Nap-Gard, Abcite, and Plascoat brands. Further, it develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, MDT, bus, rail, motorcycles, marine and aviation, trailers, recreational vehicles, and personal sport vehicles under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. The company also offers products under the Audurra, Abcite, Alesta, AquaEC, Axalta Irus Mix, Axalta Irus Scan, Axalta NextJet, Axalta Nimbus, Centari, Ceranamel, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Hydropon, Imron ExcelPro, Imron Elite, Imron, Lutophen, Nap-Gard, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, Rival, U-POL, and Vermeera brands. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32.6% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 11.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09112822287593009],[2017,0.07503253245310566],[2018,0.11210071002122247],[2019,0.12221437979229782],[2020,0.11006062355658199],[2021,0.12311616256519664],[2022,0.10451286972991192],[2023,0.14610829062309952],[2024,0.17392011088709677],[2025,0.1615358953159745]]; median 0.11715754490676014. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 165 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 136200000; owner earnings 224700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 125000000; owner earnings 259200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 143400000; owner earnings 432800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 112500000; owner earnings 489500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 82100000; owner earnings 359800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 121600000; owner earnings 458800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 150900000; owner earnings 344200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 137900000; owner earnings 405100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 140000000; owner earnings 531000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 196000000; owner earnings 477000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,3000000],[2017,3000000],[2018,1000000],[2019,1500000],[2020,900000],[2021,14400000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 165000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AXTA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.44400000000000006 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Most of our products are supplied by our network of over 5,000 independent local distributors.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Performance Coatings Sales, Marketing and Distribution We leverage a large global refinish sales and technical support team to effectively serve our broad refinish customer base of approximately 96,000 body shops. Most of our products are supplied by our network of over 5,000 independent local distributors. In select regions, including parts of Europe, we also sell directly to body-shop customers through our company owned stores.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02024374024186304. Price 33.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0880267000417188 → FY2025 2.19815668202765. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $25.12 per share

- 2016-11: $26.42 per share

- 2016-12: $27.20 per share

- 2017-01: $29.00 per share

- 2017-02: $29.11 per share

- 2017-03: $32.20 per share

- 2017-04: $31.37 per share

- 2017-05: $31.30 per share

- 2017-06: $32.04 per share

- 2017-07: $31.50 per share

- 2017-08: $29.52 per share

- 2017-09: $28.92 per share

- 2017-10: $33.25 per share

- 2017-11: $31.66 per share

- 2017-12: $32.36 per share

- 2018-01: $31.50 per share

- 2018-02: $30.80 per share

- 2018-03: $30.19 per share

- 2018-04: $30.90 per share

- 2018-05: $31.11 per share

- 2018-06: $30.31 per share

- 2018-07: $30.25 per share

- 2018-08: $30.50 per share

- 2018-09: $29.16 per share

- 2018-10: $24.68 per share

- 2018-11: $25.03 per share

- 2018-12: $23.42 per share

- 2019-01: $25.62 per share

- 2019-02: $26.73 per share

- 2019-03: $25.21 per share

- 2019-04: $26.98 per share

- 2019-05: $23.51 per share

- 2019-06: $29.77 per share

- 2019-07: $29.63 per share

- 2019-08: $28.88 per share

- 2019-09: $30.15 per share

- 2019-10: $29.49 per share

- 2019-11: $28.47 per share

- 2019-12: $30.40 per share

- 2020-01: $28.81 per share

- 2020-02: $24.92 per share

- 2020-03: $17.27 per share

- 2020-04: $19.74 per share

- 2020-05: $23.11 per share

- 2020-06: $22.55 per share

- 2020-07: $22.20 per share

- 2020-08: $23.85 per share

- 2020-09: $22.17 per share

- 2020-10: $25.11 per share

- 2020-11: $28.61 per share

- 2020-12: $28.55 per share

- 2021-01: $26.99 per share

- 2021-02: $27.34 per share

- 2021-03: $29.58 per share

- 2021-04: $31.89 per share

- 2021-05: $32.44 per share

- 2021-06: $30.49 per share

- 2021-07: $30.10 per share

- 2021-08: $30.54 per share

- 2021-09: $29.19 per share

- 2021-10: $31.19 per share

- 2021-11: $30.32 per share

- 2021-12: $33.12 per share

- 2022-01: $29.61 per share

- 2022-02: $27.04 per share

- 2022-03: $24.58 per share

- 2022-04: $25.37 per share

- 2022-05: $27.16 per share

- 2022-06: $22.11 per share

- 2022-07: $25.22 per share

- 2022-08: $25.75 per share

- 2022-09: $21.06 per share

- 2022-10: $23.32 per share

- 2022-11: $26.84 per share

- 2022-12: $25.47 per share

- 2023-01: $30.10 per share

- 2023-02: $29.80 per share

- 2023-03: $30.29 per share

- 2023-04: $31.57 per share

- 2023-05: $29.01 per share

- 2023-06: $32.81 per share

- 2023-07: $32.00 per share

- 2023-08: $28.30 per share

- 2023-09: $26.90 per share

- 2023-10: $26.23 per share

- 2023-11: $31.47 per share

- 2023-12: $33.97 per share

- 2024-01: $32.42 per share

- 2024-02: $32.73 per share

- 2024-03: $34.39 per share

- 2024-04: $31.44 per share

- 2024-05: $35.59 per share

- 2024-06: $34.17 per share

- 2024-07: $35.65 per share

- 2024-08: $36.50 per share

- 2024-09: $36.19 per share

- 2024-10: $37.92 per share

- 2024-11: $40.46 per share

- 2024-12: $34.22 per share

- 2025-01: $35.94 per share

- 2025-02: $36.21 per share

- 2025-03: $33.17 per share

- 2025-04: $32.50 per share

- 2025-05: $30.80 per share

- 2025-06: $29.69 per share

- 2025-07: $28.32 per share

- 2025-08: $31.26 per share

- 2025-09: $28.62 per share

- 2025-10: $28.47 per share

- 2025-11: $30.13 per share

- 2025-12: $32.31 per share

- 2026-01: $33.58 per share

- 2026-02: $33.41 per share

- 2026-03: $27.70 per share

- 2026-04: $28.44 per share

- 2026-05: $30.77 per share

- 2026-06: $34.22 per share

- 2026-07: $35.81 per share

- 2026-08: $36.42 per share

- 2026-09: $32.16 per share

- 2026-10: $33.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $11.90 per share, central $13.29 per share, high $15.14 per share

- FY2017: low $13.45 per share, central $14.92 per share, high $16.88 per share

- FY2018: low $14.98 per share, central $16.71 per share, high $19.00 per share

- FY2019: low $17.13 per share, central $18.95 per share, high $21.37 per share

- FY2020: low $21.42 per share, central $23.62 per share, high $26.54 per share

- FY2021: low $23.28 per share, central $26.04 per share, high $29.72 per share

- FY2022: low $25.58 per share, central $28.77 per share, high $33.01 per share

- FY2023: low $27.28 per share, central $30.67 per share, high $35.18 per share

- FY2024: low $27.40 per share, central $30.87 per share, high $35.50 per share

- FY2025: low $26.60 per share, central $29.91 per share, high $34.32 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616862/000162828026008008/axta-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.