# Aurizon Holdings (AZJ.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AZJ.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 3.79 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 2.13 per share, central AUD 2.42 per share, high AUD 2.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 2.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.30×

- FY2020: 0.29×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 14.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 14.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.8%

- FY2018: 8.2%

- FY2019: 7.6%

- FY2020: 7.6%

- FY2021: 8.6%

- FY2022: 7.3%

- FY2023: 4.6%

- FY2024: 6.2%

- FY2025: 5.3%

- FY2026: 6.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 1.8B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 0.84×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.2% vs 6.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.04 to 0.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: AUD -3.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 440M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 24.1%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.86

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 100M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 4.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -0.02

- FY2018: AUD 0.24

- FY2019: AUD 0.24

- FY2020: AUD 0.33

- FY2021: AUD 0.40

- FY2022: AUD 0.28

- FY2023: AUD 0.15

- FY2024: AUD 0.22

- FY2025: AUD 0.17

- FY2026: AUD 0.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -13.0%

- FY2018: -8.2%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: -4.7%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -6.9%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -7.3%

- FY2025: -9.9%

- FY2026: -9.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.6% a year for ten years · sales +5.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.565Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Australia's Aurizon flags 200 job cuts, potential hit to full-year earnings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-aurizon-flags-200-job-073042903.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 3.1B 

- FY2018: AUD 3.1B 

- FY2019: AUD 2.9B 

- FY2020: AUD 3.0B 

- FY2021: AUD 3.0B 

- FY2022: AUD 3.0B 

- FY2023: AUD 3.4B 

- FY2024: AUD 3.8B 

- FY2025: AUD 3.9B 

- FY2026: AUD 4.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 48.8% 

- FY2018: 50.2% 

- FY2019: 48.8% 

- FY2020: 30.0% 

- FY2021: 29.4% 

- FY2022: 26.6% 

- FY2023: 20.7% 

- FY2024: 41.4% 

- FY2025: 84.1% 

- FY2026: 21.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are AUD 4.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2026: revenue 4097000000; grossProfit 890000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AZJ.AU: Aurizon Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides freight and logistics solutions in Australia. The company operates through Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other segments. It operates and manages the Central Queensland Coal Network that consists of 2,670 kilometers of track network; and the South Australia and Northern Territory Network that consists of 2,100 kilometers of track network. The company also provides supply chain services, including rail and road transportation, port services, and material handling for various mining, metal, industrial, and agricultural customers; and manages the Tarcoola-to-Darwin below rail infrastructure, intrastate rail freight network in South Australia, and containerized freight services between Adelaide and Darwin. In addition, the company moves bulk commodities, such as iron ore, cement, bauxite, alumina, base metals, grain, and fertiliser and dangerous goods; and transports metallurgical and thermal coal. Further, it offers rail line haul and landbridging services; and transports essential goods, including retail and supermarket products, refrigerated freight, and machinery and equipment. The company serves mining, metal, industrial, and agricultural customers. The company was formerly known as QR National Limited and changed its name to Aurizon Holdings Limited in December 2012. Aurizon Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Fortitude Valley, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.7% to 84.1% during 2024–26; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 84.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08791193318571291],[2018,0.08231276770037153],[2019,0.07577432457098927],[2020,0.07647894170190334],[2021,0.08566291874544064],[2022,0.07331313783804493],[2023,0.04633726781395988],[2024,0.06153697408862383],[2025,0.05309928317591206],[2026,0.06352434631589103]]; median 0.0745437312045171. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.3% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 446600000; owner earnings 83500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 470500000; owner earnings 538000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 411700000; owner earnings 607400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 524400000; owner earnings 621540000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 514800000; owner earnings 767260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 549100000; owner earnings 532280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2023: growth capex 91000000; upkeep 667000000; owner earnings 272000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33455882352941174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2024: growth capex 94000000; upkeep 707000000; owner earnings 401000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2344139650872818.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 696000000; owner earnings 301400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2026: growth capex 1000000; upkeep 739000000; owner earnings 305400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0032743942370661427.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,551900000],[2018,462100000],[2019,487600000],[2020,513800000],[2021,528800000],[2022,458300000],[2023,329000000],[2024,326000000],[2025,297000000],[2026,325000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 250000000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AZJ.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.451 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:54.800Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08111119754987783. Price 3.79; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.03414112931268849 → FY2026 0.16591478043183477. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.88 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 4.98 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 5.05 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 5.01 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 5.12 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 5.25 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 5.50 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 5.36 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 5.02 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 4.96 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 4.90 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 5.27 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 4.96 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 4.68 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 4.57 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 4.23 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 4.31 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 4.33 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 4.11 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 4.21 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 4.28 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 4.40 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 4.52 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 4.76 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 5.76 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 5.91 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 5.78 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 5.23 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 5.41 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 4.83 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 4.23 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.69 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.92 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.45 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 4.35 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.25 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 3.77 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 4.25 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 3.70 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 3.75 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 3.86 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 3.78 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 3.37 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 3.37 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.52 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 3.50 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 4.02 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 4.02 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 3.73 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.45 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 3.73 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 3.31 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.36 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 3.42 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.56 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 3.92 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 3.42 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 3.53 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.79 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 4.00 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 3.83 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 3.68 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 3.53 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 3.25 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 3.28 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 3.25 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 3.10 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 3.06 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 3.03 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 3.24 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 3.24 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 3.19 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 3.43 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 3.58 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 3.97 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 4.18 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 3.66 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 3.71 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 3.78 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 0.46 per share, central AUD 0.52 per share, high AUD 0.60 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 0.45 per share, central AUD 0.52 per share, high AUD 0.60 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 0.43 per share, central AUD 0.49 per share, high AUD 0.56 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 3.01 per share, central AUD 3.42 per share, high AUD 3.98 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 3.65 per share, central AUD 4.15 per share, high AUD 4.81 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 3.74 per share, central AUD 4.27 per share, high AUD 4.95 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 4.22 per share, central AUD 4.80 per share, high AUD 5.57 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 4.01 per share, central AUD 4.56 per share, high AUD 5.30 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 2.59 per share, central AUD 2.95 per share, high AUD 3.43 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 1.95 per share, central AUD 2.22 per share, high AUD 2.57 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:38.815Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.