# AutoZone (AZO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AZO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:44.732Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $3,059.62 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $2,629.36 per share, central $3,835.64 per share, high $4,508.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value $3,835.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:44.732Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.7% at the stated quote. About 11.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.20×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 46.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 34.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 52.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 35.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 45.9%

- FY2018: 49.1%

- FY2019: 57.5%

- FY2020: 35.2%

- FY2021: 46.9%

- FY2022: 49.7%

- FY2023: 46.2%

- FY2024: 43.1%

- FY2025: 34.7%

- FY2026: 30.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $13B

- Net income, five-year total: $13B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 60.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 49.1% vs 34.7%

- Per-share earnings: 44.07 to 149.55 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.9%

- Market cap gain: $36B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 16.5%

- Per-share value change: $105.48

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $44.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $149.55

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.55

- Average buyback yield: 6.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $21B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 49.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 34.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $44.07

- FY2018: $48.77

- FY2019: $63.43

- FY2020: $71.93

- FY2021: $95.19

- FY2022: $117.19

- FY2023: $132.36

- FY2024: $149.55

- FY2025: $144.87

- FY2026: $152.55

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.28×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -7.9%

- FY2019: -5.2%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -9.3%

- FY2022: -5.1%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: -3.2%

- FY2026: -3.4%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 29% since Sep 2025 · "AutoZone Fourth-Quarter Comps May Miss Street Views Amid Soft Aftermarket Demand, UBS Says" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +7.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.634Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-23: AutoZone Q4 earnings miss estimates as LIFO charge weighs on profits ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autozone-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-113408234.html))

- 2025-12-09: AutoZone Profit Falls as Higher Costs Continue from Tariffs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/09fa7359-8dad-36bb-a98b-5ce109d3dae4/autozone-profit-falls-as.html))

- 2026-01-05: AutoZone’s higher costs, new investments could slow earnings growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autozone-higher-costs-investments-could-165914625.html))

- 2026-03-03: AutoZone's second-quarter profit falls after inflationary headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autozones-second-quarter-profit-falls-132628388.html))

- 2026-05-26: AutoZone shares slide on quarterly revenue miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/autozone-shares-slide-quarterly-revenue-144900669.html))

- 2026-09-18: AutoZone Facing Near-Term Pressure From Recent Oil Price Spike, Oppenheimer Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/autozone-facing-near-term-pressure-151412098.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866787/000110465925102611/azo-20250830x10k.htm; observed 2025-10-27.

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $13B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $16B 

- FY2023: $17B 

- FY2024: $18B 

- FY2025: $19B 

- FY2026: $20B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 52.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866787/000110465925102611/azo-20250830x10k.htm; observed 2025-10-27.

- FY2017: 52.7% 

- FY2018: 53.2% 

- FY2019: 53.7% 

- FY2020: 53.6% 

- FY2021: 52.8% 

- FY2022: 52.1% 

- FY2023: 52.0% 

- FY2024: 53.1% 

- FY2025: 52.6% 

- FY2026: 52.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 20.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2026-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2026: revenue 20338555000; grossProfit 10644974000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 52.3% to 53.1% during 2024–26; it earns 46% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2024-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2025-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 52.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2026-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 52.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.4588105603972557],[2018,0.4905535905252657],[2019,0.5747455533802311],[2020,0.3516853895309857],[2021,0.46887582849398945],[2022,0.4972282357694022],[2023,0.46214920787084734],[2024,0.43079716544859964],[2025,0.34668609484406593],[2026,0.3063596635001573]]; median 0.4604798841340515. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 52% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866787/000110465925102611/azo-20250830x10k.htm (filed 2025-10-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5275464068187854],[2022,0.5213223046929559],[2023,0.5195803063364826]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 29.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 60.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2017-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2017: growth capex 88597694.06910855; upkeep 465234305.93089145; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1138685694.0691085. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07780697916077571.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2018-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2018: growth capex 119073979.85542655; upkeep 403173020.14457345; owner earnings 1279446979.8554265. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0930667559736485.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2019-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2019: growth capex 126093000; upkeep 369957000; owner earnings 1617221000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07796893560002004.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2020-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2020: growth capex 60270000; upkeep 397466000; owner earnings 1732972000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.034778403805716424.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2021-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2021: growth capex 214084000; upkeep 407683000; owner earnings 2170314000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09864194766287275.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2022-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2022: growth capex 230168000; upkeep 442223000; owner earnings 2429604000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09473477982420181.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2023-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2023: growth capex 299080000; upkeep 497577000; owner earnings 2528426000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11828702916359822.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2024-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2024: growth capex 522941000; upkeep 549755000; owner earnings 2662427000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19641515053746075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/AZO.US.json#2025-08-31 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2025: growth capex 714058000; upkeep 613199000; owner earnings 2498247000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28582361952200885.

- Source: https://about.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-4th-quarter-total-company-same-store-sales-increase-15 (filed 2025-10-27); FY2026: growth capex 727406380.566801; upkeep 768848619.433199; owner earnings 2488193380.566801. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2923431861237009.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-27); Incremental return on capital 0.6057844923479161, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-27); Dividend observations: [[2017,600000000],[2018,170200000],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,603400000],[2023,606200000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-27); FY2026: cash repurchases 1329708666.6666667 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AZO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.248 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If demand for our products slows, then our business may be materially adversely affected." (SEC filing, Oct 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866787/000110465925102611/azo-20250830x10k.htm (filed 2025-10-27); If demand for our products slows, then our business may be materially adversely affected.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06381101175044729. Price 3059.62; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 39.46417617951747 → FY2026 147.5359253226683. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $742.16 per share

- 2016-11: $783.18 per share

- 2016-12: $789.79 per share

- 2017-01: $724.98 per share

- 2017-02: $736.55 per share

- 2017-03: $723.05 per share

- 2017-04: $692.19 per share

- 2017-05: $605.92 per share

- 2017-06: $570.46 per share

- 2017-07: $539.82 per share

- 2017-08: $528.44 per share

- 2017-09: $595.11 per share

- 2017-10: $589.50 per share

- 2017-11: $686.76 per share

- 2017-12: $711.37 per share

- 2018-01: $765.44 per share

- 2018-02: $664.72 per share

- 2018-03: $648.69 per share

- 2018-04: $624.52 per share

- 2018-05: $649.32 per share

- 2018-06: $670.93 per share

- 2018-07: $705.53 per share

- 2018-08: $766.88 per share

- 2018-09: $775.70 per share

- 2018-10: $733.47 per share

- 2018-11: $809.07 per share

- 2018-12: $838.34 per share

- 2019-01: $847.34 per share

- 2019-02: $938.97 per share

- 2019-03: $1,024.12 per share

- 2019-04: $1,028.31 per share

- 2019-05: $1,027.11 per share

- 2019-06: $1,099.47 per share

- 2019-07: $1,123.04 per share

- 2019-08: $1,101.69 per share

- 2019-09: $1,084.62 per share

- 2019-10: $1,144.38 per share

- 2019-11: $1,177.92 per share

- 2019-12: $1,191.31 per share

- 2020-01: $1,057.96 per share

- 2020-02: $1,032.51 per share

- 2020-03: $846.00 per share

- 2020-04: $1,020.32 per share

- 2020-05: $1,147.86 per share

- 2020-06: $1,128.12 per share

- 2020-07: $1,207.42 per share

- 2020-08: $1,196.31 per share

- 2020-09: $1,177.64 per share

- 2020-10: $1,128.98 per share

- 2020-11: $1,137.65 per share

- 2020-12: $1,185.44 per share

- 2021-01: $1,118.37 per share

- 2021-02: $1,159.92 per share

- 2021-03: $1,404.30 per share

- 2021-04: $1,464.12 per share

- 2021-05: $1,406.60 per share

- 2021-06: $1,492.22 per share

- 2021-07: $1,623.57 per share

- 2021-08: $1,549.15 per share

- 2021-09: $1,697.99 per share

- 2021-10: $1,784.84 per share

- 2021-11: $1,817.07 per share

- 2021-12: $2,096.39 per share

- 2022-01: $1,986.35 per share

- 2022-02: $1,863.39 per share

- 2022-03: $2,044.58 per share

- 2022-04: $1,955.47 per share

- 2022-05: $2,059.65 per share

- 2022-06: $2,149.12 per share

- 2022-07: $2,137.39 per share

- 2022-08: $2,119.21 per share

- 2022-09: $2,141.93 per share

- 2022-10: $2,532.88 per share

- 2022-11: $2,579.00 per share

- 2022-12: $2,466.18 per share

- 2023-01: $2,438.85 per share

- 2023-02: $2,486.54 per share

- 2023-03: $2,458.15 per share

- 2023-04: $2,663.31 per share

- 2023-05: $2,386.84 per share

- 2023-06: $2,493.36 per share

- 2023-07: $2,481.72 per share

- 2023-08: $2,531.33 per share

- 2023-09: $2,539.99 per share

- 2023-10: $2,477.13 per share

- 2023-11: $2,609.93 per share

- 2023-12: $2,585.61 per share

- 2024-01: $2,762.13 per share

- 2024-02: $3,006.02 per share

- 2024-03: $3,151.65 per share

- 2024-04: $2,956.40 per share

- 2024-05: $2,769.94 per share

- 2024-06: $2,964.10 per share

- 2024-07: $3,133.69 per share

- 2024-08: $3,181.48 per share

- 2024-09: $3,150.04 per share

- 2024-10: $3,009.00 per share

- 2024-11: $3,169.54 per share

- 2024-12: $3,202.00 per share

- 2025-01: $3,350.21 per share

- 2025-02: $3,493.01 per share

- 2025-03: $3,812.78 per share

- 2025-04: $3,762.60 per share

- 2025-05: $3,733.04 per share

- 2025-06: $3,712.23 per share

- 2025-07: $3,768.38 per share

- 2025-08: $4,198.53 per share

- 2025-09: $4,290.24 per share

- 2025-10: $3,674.43 per share

- 2025-11: $3,954.33 per share

- 2025-12: $3,391.50 per share

- 2026-01: $3,704.29 per share

- 2026-02: $3,755.58 per share

- 2026-03: $3,377.78 per share

- 2026-04: $3,704.03 per share

- 2026-05: $2,935.19 per share

- 2026-06: $3,195.94 per share

- 2026-07: $3,016.25 per share

- 2026-08: $2,991.24 per share

- 2026-09: $2,830.02 per share

- 2026-10: $2,893.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $604.77 per share, central $881.04 per share, high $1,035.12 per share

- FY2018: low $672.13 per share, central $980.49 per share, high $1,152.48 per share

- FY2019: low $769.46 per share, central $1,122.47 per share, high $1,319.36 per share

- FY2020: low $930.25 per share, central $1,328.50 per share, high $1,550.61 per share

- FY2021: low $1,308.68 per share, central $1,891.38 per share, high $2,216.38 per share

- FY2022: low $1,561.55 per share, central $2,277.95 per share, high $2,677.52 per share

- FY2023: low $1,921.91 per share, central $2,803.64 per share, high $3,295.41 per share

- FY2024: low $2,184.29 per share, central $3,186.39 per share, high $3,745.30 per share

- FY2025: low $2,309.66 per share, central $3,369.27 per share, high $3,960.26 per share

- FY2026: low $2,521.47 per share, central $3,678.26 per share, high $4,323.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Historical value ranges retain the original capex calculation; the current filing judgement is not backfilled into historical valuations

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866787/000110465925102611/azo-20250830x10k.htm); period 2025-08-30, filed 2025-10-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.