# Aurora Innovation (AUR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AUR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:40.884Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $5.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 1.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -5.79×

- FY2021: -8.91×

- FY2022: -27.24×

- FY2025: -300.33×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -194.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -80.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -123.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 40.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -93.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -123.2%

- FY2020: -99.5%

- FY2021: -75.5%

- FY2022: -178.6%

- FY2023: -72.7%

- FY2024: -80.3%

- FY2025: -69.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$4.8B

- Net income, five-year total: -$4.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$755M

- FY2022: -$1.7B

- FY2023: -$790M

- FY2024: -$761M

- FY2025: -$816M

### management: fail

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -99.5% vs -72.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.79 to -0.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 46.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 46.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.46

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -99.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -72.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.37

- FY2020: -$0.79

- FY2021: -$1.22

- FY2022: -$1.51

- FY2023: -$0.60

- FY2024: -$0.46

- FY2025: -$0.44

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.0%

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -3.6%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -60.7%

- FY2023: -8.9%

- FY2024: -6.4%

- FY2025: -10.0%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 59% since Nov 2021 · "Aurora Innovation (AUR) Falls to 52-Week Low Over Net Loss" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +66.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:20.829Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2026-04-30: Leading Carrier Selects Aurora to Scale Autonomous Fleet to 500 Trucks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/leading-carrier-selects-aurora-scale-130000503.html))

- 2026-05-06: Aurora lands McLane deal to run driverless truck routes in Texas ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/aurora-lands-mclane-deal-run-145655506.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +66.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000016/aur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2019: $20M 

- FY2020: $0 

- FY2021: $82M 

- FY2022: $68M 

- FY2023: $0 

- FY2024: $0 

- FY2025: $3.0M 

- FY2026: $5.0M 

### Gross margin · FY2019

gross margin 99.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000016/aur-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2019: 99.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000016/aur-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 3000000; grossProfit -14000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

It lost 80.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-1.2318743389332272],[2020,-0.9946576568771839],[2021,-0.7548888888888889],[2022,-1.7864224664224664],[2023,-0.7272877618522602],[2024,-0.8032858990944373],[2025,-0.6971498530852106]]; median -0.8032858990944373. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price is 3310.2 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Closing price 5.4 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 0.0016313213703099511; price multiple 3310.2000000000003. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.4437194127243067. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-05: $9.79 per share

- 2021-06: $9.89 per share

- 2021-07: $9.91 per share

- 2021-08: $9.85 per share

- 2021-09: $9.93 per share

- 2021-10: $10.05 per share

- 2021-11: $13.12 per share

- 2021-12: $11.26 per share

- 2022-01: $4.93 per share

- 2022-02: $5.72 per share

- 2022-03: $5.59 per share

- 2022-04: $4.26 per share

- 2022-05: $3.16 per share

- 2022-06: $1.91 per share

- 2022-07: $2.54 per share

- 2022-08: $2.14 per share

- 2022-09: $2.21 per share

- 2022-10: $2.06 per share

- 2022-11: $1.26 per share

- 2022-12: $1.21 per share

- 2023-01: $1.82 per share

- 2023-02: $1.56 per share

- 2023-03: $1.39 per share

- 2023-04: $1.43 per share

- 2023-05: $1.41 per share

- 2023-06: $2.94 per share

- 2023-07: $3.28 per share

- 2023-08: $3.17 per share

- 2023-09: $2.35 per share

- 2023-10: $1.75 per share

- 2023-11: $2.19 per share

- 2023-12: $4.37 per share

- 2024-01: $2.99 per share

- 2024-02: $2.54 per share

- 2024-03: $2.82 per share

- 2024-04: $2.78 per share

- 2024-05: $2.39 per share

- 2024-06: $2.77 per share

- 2024-07: $4.00 per share

- 2024-08: $4.67 per share

- 2024-09: $5.92 per share

- 2024-10: $5.20 per share

- 2024-11: $6.47 per share

- 2024-12: $6.30 per share

- 2025-01: $6.80 per share

- 2025-02: $7.27 per share

- 2025-03: $6.73 per share

- 2025-04: $7.24 per share

- 2025-05: $6.06 per share

- 2025-06: $5.24 per share

- 2025-07: $5.81 per share

- 2025-08: $5.63 per share

- 2025-09: $5.39 per share

- 2025-10: $5.24 per share

- 2025-11: $4.19 per share

- 2025-12: $3.84 per share

- 2026-01: $4.20 per share

- 2026-02: $4.68 per share

- 2026-03: $4.12 per share

- 2026-04: $5.88 per share

- 2026-05: $7.34 per share

- 2026-06: $6.82 per share

- 2026-07: $6.45 per share

- 2026-08: $5.63 per share

- 2026-09: $5.54 per share

- 2026-10: $5.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828108/000182810826000016/aur-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.