# Barrick Gold (ABX.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ABX.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:48.455Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 57.56 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 33.13 per share, central CAD 39.59 per share, high CAD 45.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 39.59 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:48.455Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.7% at the stated quote. About 7.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.28×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.52×

- FY2020: 0.37×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 0.48×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.53×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 19.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.3%

- FY2017: 12.6%

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 19.3%

- FY2020: 18.3%

- FY2021: 16.3%

- FY2022: 9.6%

- FY2023: 9.9%

- FY2024: 13.3%

- FY2025: 30.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 130.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.85×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.6% vs 13.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.56 to 1.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: $53B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.2%

- Per-share value change: $0.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.56

- FY2017: $1.23

- FY2018: -$1.32

- FY2019: $2.23

- FY2020: $1.31

- FY2021: $1.14

- FY2022: $0.25

- FY2023: $0.72

- FY2024: $1.22

- FY2025: $2.96

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 4.19×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.62×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.9%

- FY2017: -2.5%

- FY2018: -14.6%

- FY2019: 2.6%

- FY2020: -6.7%

- FY2021: -5.0%

- FY2022: -6.6%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -6.0%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.6% a year for ten years · sales +21.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.838Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-11: Barrick Posts $1 Billion Charge on Mali Mine ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/barrick-posts-1-billion-charge-151925123.html))

- 2025-11-10: Barrick Gold Q3 Adjusted Net Earnings Grows YoY, Boosts Share Buyback Program, Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-gold-q3-adjusted-net-120019167.html))

- 2026-02-06: Barrick Mining's Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-minings-q4-earnings-sales-153200360.html))

- 2026-03-29: Barrick Slows Reko Diq Project As Security Risks Recast Growth Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/barrick-slows-reko-diq-project-041329701.html))

- 2026-05-12: Barrick Mining's Q1 Earnings and Sales Beat on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/barrick-minings-q1-earnings-sales-122500317.html))

- 2026-08-10: Barrick Mining Q2 Adjusted Net Earnings and Revenue Rise; Reaches an Agreement with Newmont ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/barrick-mining-q2-adjusted-net-134115840.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +21.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $8.4B 

- FY2018: $7.2B 

- FY2019: $9.7B 

- FY2020: $13B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $13B 

- FY2025: $17B 

- FY2026: $21B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 51.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 36.8% 

- FY2017: 36.7% 

- FY2018: 27.9% 

- FY2019: 28.9% 

- FY2020: 41.1% 

- FY2021: 40.9% 

- FY2022: 31.5% 

- FY2023: 30.4% 

- FY2024: 38.4% 

- FY2025: 51.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 17 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 16956000000; grossProfit 8691000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.4% to 51.3% during 2023–25; it earns 13.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13251280356847844],[2017,0.1257719226018938],[2018,0.09613756613756613],[2019,0.19328218297504468],[2020,0.18302363628316606],[2021,0.1633515020424682],[2022,0.0958942015256519],[2023,0.0991994670277124],[2024,0.13336887026691494],[2025,0.3057828702154008]]; median 0.1329408369176967. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 39.7% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1126000000; owner earnings 1261905567. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1396000000; owner earnings 1874618936. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1701000000; owner earnings 4409900812. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2054000000; owner earnings 2719361545. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2435000000; owner earnings 1722323797. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3049000000; owner earnings 200495575.22123894. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 862270535.5874386; upkeep 2223729464.4125614; owner earnings 1229823927.0922794. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7011333220895599.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 1259000000; upkeep 1915000000; owner earnings 2135807253.8860104. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5894726678679938.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 1981888642; upkeep 1906000000; owner earnings 4986439446.463517. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3974556721842065.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 1.3089721792302011, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,86000000],[2017,125000000],[2018,125000000],[2019,560740173],[2020,547000000],[2021,628421442],[2022,1143000000],[2023,700000000],[2024,696000000],[2025,905579924]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 1526258299 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABX.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.40800000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0959217674631564. Price 57.56; FX 1.4190435646374344; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -2.3862660944206007 → FY2025 2.9610685549070768. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 23.60 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 20.15 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 21.49 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 23.98 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 24.51 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 25.26 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 22.82 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 22.34 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 20.63 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 21.08 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 22.49 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 20.08 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 18.64 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 17.82 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 18.18 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 17.69 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 14.78 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 16.05 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 17.28 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 17.07 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 17.27 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 14.58 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 13.35 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 14.29 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 16.49 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 16.93 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 18.43 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 17.59 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 16.60 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 18.32 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 17.03 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 16.81 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 20.67 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 21.45 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 25.81 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 22.92 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 22.88 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 22.18 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 24.12 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 24.51 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 25.60 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 25.86 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 35.83 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 33.11 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 36.53 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 38.71 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 38.64 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 37.40 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 35.62 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 29.81 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 29.00 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 28.56 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 23.75 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 24.93 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 26.19 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 28.64 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 25.64 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 27.16 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 25.36 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 22.87 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 22.71 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 24.28 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 24.05 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 24.33 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 28.65 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 30.66 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 28.65 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 25.91 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 22.76 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 20.18 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 19.50 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 21.41 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 20.49 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 21.95 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 23.21 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 26.02 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 22.05 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 25.09 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 25.76 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 22.94 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 22.41 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 22.78 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 21.90 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 19.73 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 22.15 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 23.84 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 23.94 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 21.00 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 19.79 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 22.53 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 22.88 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 23.25 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 22.82 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 25.58 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 27.21 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 26.90 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 26.91 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 24.52 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 22.29 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 23.76 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 25.66 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 27.94 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 26.29 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 26.32 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 28.35 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 29.25 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 36.63 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 45.71 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 46.04 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 58.43 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 59.79 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 62.24 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 69.21 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 56.85 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 53.37 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 58.90 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 52.15 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 51.45 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 62.16 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 57.87 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 57.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2019: low CAD 14.98 per share, central CAD 16.70 per share, high CAD 19.00 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 27.66 per share, central CAD 30.93 per share, high CAD 35.29 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 26.58 per share, central CAD 29.69 per share, high CAD 33.83 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 15.40 per share, central CAD 17.33 per share, high CAD 19.89 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 16.53 per share, central CAD 18.52 per share, high CAD 21.18 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 18.59 per share, central CAD 20.86 per share, high CAD 23.88 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 27.66 per share, central CAD 32.85 per share, high CAD 37.66 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:34.803Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/756894/000119312526079253/d833573d40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.