# Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BABA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:45.742Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $111.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $91.01 per share, central $100.19 per share, high $112.40 per share. Buy at or below the central value $100.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:45.742Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.28×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.18×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- FY2026: 0.06×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 38.2%

- FY2018: 27.8%

- FY2019: 16.8%

- FY2020: 33.1%

- FY2021: 24.0%

- FY2022: 12.4%

- FY2023: 22.6%

- FY2024: 23.8%

- FY2025: 20.4%

- FY2026: 8.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.73×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 327B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 449B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -9.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.17×

- FY2024: 1.14×

- FY2025: 0.76×

- FY2026: -0.10×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 27.8% vs 20.4%

- Per-share earnings: 24.52 to 42.89 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY 141B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 597B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.2%

- Per-share value change: CNY 18.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 24.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 42.89

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.57

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 112B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 944B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 27.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: CNY 16.70

- FY2018: CNY 24.52

- FY2019: CNY 32.87

- FY2020: CNY 54.29

- FY2021: CNY 56.29

- FY2022: CNY 23.85

- FY2023: CNY 28.65

- FY2024: CNY 33.34

- FY2025: CNY 53.90

- FY2026: CNY 42.89

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.46×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.74×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.25×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.6%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: -4.8%

- FY2022: -4.7%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -5.9%

- FY2025: -1.9%

- FY2026: 1.4%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dennis Hong](https://gigainvestors.com/SP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 38% since Sep 2025 · "Quick commerce subsidies and a relentless AI capital-spending cycle have hollowed out near-term profitability." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:21.886Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-29: Alibaba Stock Jumps on Strong EPS, Cloud Momentum and $815M Buyback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-stock-jumps-strong-eps-182718997.html))

- 2025-09-24: Alibaba stock soars 8% on expected AI spend, Nvidia pact ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-stock-soars-8-on-expected-ai-spend-nvidia-pact-200453211.html))

- 2026-01-14: Alibaba shares rise after report shows gains in China AI cloud market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-shares-rise-report-shows-131835890.html))

- 2026-03-19: Alibaba Stock Drops After Earnings. AI Growth Isn’t Enough as JD.Com Price War Hits. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ec850f96-ab1b-36a2-91eb-ef2d44221ffa/alibaba-stock-drops-after.html))

- 2026-06-11: Alibaba, JD.com Shares Fall as Beijing Launches Fresh Crackdown on Discount Marketing ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alibaba-jd-com-shares-fall-121905488.html))

- 2026-07-15: Apple Intelligence approved in China with Alibaba Qwen AI model ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apple-intelligence-approved-china-alibaba-131501096.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-20.

- FY2018: CNY 250B 

- FY2019: CNY 377B 

- FY2020: CNY 510B 

- FY2021: CNY 717B 

- FY2022: CNY 853B 

- FY2023: CNY 869B 

- FY2024: CNY 941B 

- FY2025: CNY 996B 

- FY2026: CNY 1.02T 

- FY2027: CNY 1.04T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 39.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm; observed 2026-05-20.

- FY2017: 62.4% 

- FY2018: 57.2% 

- FY2019: 45.1% 

- FY2020: 44.6% 

- FY2021: 41.3% 

- FY2022: 36.8% 

- FY2023: 36.7% 

- FY2024: 37.7% 

- FY2025: 40.0% 

- FY2026: 39.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are CNY 1 trillion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: revenue 1023670000000; grossProfit 407534000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BABA.US: Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.7% to 40% during 2024–26; it earns 23.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 39.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.38192101330399175],[2018,0.2775686645129852],[2019,0.16804286524580228],[2020,0.3311272368202641],[2021,0.2398871246908836],[2022,0.12395955712200506],[2023,0.22629737897393712],[2024,0.23832660112627965],[2025,0.20436483011677165],[2026,0.08072608638008266]]; median 0.23231199005010839. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back CNY 7.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2017: growth capex 3625107000; upkeep 14292000000; cash acquisitions 33448000000; owner earnings 43675000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8488404579278763.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2018: growth capex 6117270000; upkeep 22020000000; cash acquisitions 515000000; owner earnings 64093000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.10347885104457585.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2019: growth capex 12574875000; upkeep 37080000000; cash acquisitions 35434000000; owner earnings 87886000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5462630566870719.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2020: growth capex 4115406000; upkeep 42427000000; cash acquisitions 14536000000; owner earnings 149433000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12481450549744702.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 43185000000; cash acquisitions 19137000000; owner earnings 155458000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12310077319919206.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2022: growth capex 5244000000; upkeep 48065000000; cash acquisitions 4087000000; owner earnings 62249000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1498979903291619.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 34352000000; cash acquisitions 1204000000; owner earnings 85369000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.014103480186016001.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 33183987000; cash acquisitions 2204000000; owner earnings 91329013000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.024132528400367143.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); FY2025: growth capex 12566128778.537827; upkeep 74095217221.46217; cash acquisitions 353000000; owner earnings 98472782778.53783. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1311949191848527.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); Dividend observations: [[2017,96677000000],[2018,0],[2019,12116000000],[2020,0],[2021,38410000000],[2022,0],[2023,22790000000],[2024,18084965000],[2025,29310147000],[2026,33732000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm (filed 2026-05-20); FY2026: cash repurchases 7638000000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BABA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.7690000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.024080663730654962. Price 111.13; FX 0.14944; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 27.398295195397715 → FY2026 -4.474688185621574. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $101.69 per share

- 2016-11: $94.02 per share

- 2016-12: $87.81 per share

- 2017-01: $101.31 per share

- 2017-02: $102.90 per share

- 2017-03: $107.83 per share

- 2017-04: $115.50 per share

- 2017-05: $122.46 per share

- 2017-06: $140.90 per share

- 2017-07: $154.95 per share

- 2017-08: $171.74 per share

- 2017-09: $172.71 per share

- 2017-10: $184.89 per share

- 2017-11: $177.08 per share

- 2017-12: $172.43 per share

- 2018-01: $204.29 per share

- 2018-02: $186.14 per share

- 2018-03: $183.54 per share

- 2018-04: $178.54 per share

- 2018-05: $198.01 per share

- 2018-06: $185.53 per share

- 2018-07: $187.23 per share

- 2018-08: $175.01 per share

- 2018-09: $164.76 per share

- 2018-10: $142.28 per share

- 2018-11: $160.86 per share

- 2018-12: $137.07 per share

- 2019-01: $168.49 per share

- 2019-02: $183.03 per share

- 2019-03: $182.45 per share

- 2019-04: $185.57 per share

- 2019-05: $149.26 per share

- 2019-06: $169.45 per share

- 2019-07: $173.11 per share

- 2019-08: $175.03 per share

- 2019-09: $167.23 per share

- 2019-10: $176.67 per share

- 2019-11: $200.00 per share

- 2019-12: $212.10 per share

- 2020-01: $206.59 per share

- 2020-02: $208.00 per share

- 2020-03: $194.48 per share

- 2020-04: $202.67 per share

- 2020-05: $207.39 per share

- 2020-06: $215.70 per share

- 2020-07: $251.02 per share

- 2020-08: $287.03 per share

- 2020-09: $293.98 per share

- 2020-10: $304.69 per share

- 2020-11: $263.36 per share

- 2020-12: $232.73 per share

- 2021-01: $253.83 per share

- 2021-02: $237.76 per share

- 2021-03: $226.73 per share

- 2021-04: $230.95 per share

- 2021-05: $213.96 per share

- 2021-06: $226.78 per share

- 2021-07: $195.19 per share

- 2021-08: $166.99 per share

- 2021-09: $148.05 per share

- 2021-10: $164.94 per share

- 2021-11: $127.53 per share

- 2021-12: $118.79 per share

- 2022-01: $125.79 per share

- 2022-02: $105.19 per share

- 2022-03: $108.80 per share

- 2022-04: $97.09 per share

- 2022-05: $96.05 per share

- 2022-06: $113.68 per share

- 2022-07: $89.37 per share

- 2022-08: $95.41 per share

- 2022-09: $79.99 per share

- 2022-10: $63.58 per share

- 2022-11: $87.56 per share

- 2022-12: $88.09 per share

- 2023-01: $110.20 per share

- 2023-02: $87.79 per share

- 2023-03: $102.18 per share

- 2023-04: $84.69 per share

- 2023-05: $79.55 per share

- 2023-06: $83.35 per share

- 2023-07: $102.16 per share

- 2023-08: $92.90 per share

- 2023-09: $86.74 per share

- 2023-10: $82.54 per share

- 2023-11: $74.88 per share

- 2023-12: $77.51 per share

- 2024-01: $72.17 per share

- 2024-02: $74.03 per share

- 2024-03: $72.36 per share

- 2024-04: $74.85 per share

- 2024-05: $78.34 per share

- 2024-06: $72.00 per share

- 2024-07: $78.85 per share

- 2024-08: $83.34 per share

- 2024-09: $106.12 per share

- 2024-10: $97.98 per share

- 2024-11: $87.37 per share

- 2024-12: $84.79 per share

- 2025-01: $98.84 per share

- 2025-02: $132.51 per share

- 2025-03: $132.23 per share

- 2025-04: $119.43 per share

- 2025-05: $113.84 per share

- 2025-06: $113.41 per share

- 2025-07: $120.63 per share

- 2025-08: $135.00 per share

- 2025-09: $178.73 per share

- 2025-10: $170.43 per share

- 2025-11: $157.30 per share

- 2025-12: $146.58 per share

- 2026-01: $169.56 per share

- 2026-02: $144.11 per share

- 2026-03: $125.46 per share

- 2026-04: $131.88 per share

- 2026-05: $124.22 per share

- 2026-06: $95.98 per share

- 2026-07: $122.25 per share

- 2026-08: $114.02 per share

- 2026-09: $107.54 per share

- 2026-10: $110.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $47.02 per share, central $63.56 per share, high $73.19 per share

- FY2018: low $72.77 per share, central $98.93 per share, high $114.16 per share

- FY2019: low $89.94 per share, central $123.79 per share, high $143.51 per share

- FY2020: low $120.44 per share, central $164.93 per share, high $190.83 per share

- FY2021: low $162.36 per share, central $222.15 per share, high $256.96 per share

- FY2022: low $177.02 per share, central $243.38 per share, high $282.02 per share

- FY2023: low $147.36 per share, central $164.05 per share, high $186.27 per share

- FY2024: low $93.44 per share, central $102.12 per share, high $113.67 per share

- FY2025: low $109.95 per share, central $145.27 per share, high $165.84 per share

- FY2026: low $88.03 per share, central $97.29 per share, high $109.62 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000119312526231755/baba-20260331.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.