# A.G.Barr (BAG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BAG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:44.406Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: GBX 566.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 510.36 per share, central GBX 619.95 per share, high GBX 712.42 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 619.95 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:44.406Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.8% at the stated quote. About 10.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 17.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 27.1%

- FY2018: 25.6%

- FY2019: 24.3%

- FY2020: 18.2%

- FY2021: 13.5%

- FY2022: 19.6%

- FY2023: 18.9%

- FY2024: 18.6%

- FY2025: 17.9%

- FY2026: 18.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 174M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 187M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 77.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.19×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.98×

- FY2026: 0.68×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 25.6% vs 18.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.31 to 0.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: GBP 134M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 154M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 1.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.31

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.05

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 73M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 345M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 25.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.31

- FY2018: GBP 0.33

- FY2019: GBP 0.32

- FY2020: GBP 0.27

- FY2021: GBP 0.17

- FY2022: GBP 0.25

- FY2023: GBP 0.30

- FY2024: GBP 0.34

- FY2025: GBP 0.36

- FY2026: GBP 0.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.11×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.48×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.8%

- FY2018: -1.7%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -10.5%

- FY2022: -4.6%

- FY2023: -0.5%

- FY2024: -2.5%

- FY2025: -2.0%

- FY2026: -1.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years · sales +4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.161Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-22.

- FY2017: GBP 257M 

- FY2018: GBP 278M 

- FY2019: GBP 279M 

- FY2020: GBP 256M 

- FY2021: GBP 227M 

- FY2022: GBP 269M 

- FY2023: GBP 318M 

- FY2024: GBP 400M 

- FY2025: GBP 420M 

- FY2026: GBP 437M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 40.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-22.

- FY2017: 46.9% 

- FY2018: 47.1% 

- FY2019: 43.9% 

- FY2020: 41.1% 

- FY2021: 41.2% 

- FY2022: 44.2% 

- FY2023: 40.3% 

- FY2024: 38.6% 

- FY2025: 39.1% 

- FY2026: 40.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages non-alcoholic; annual sales are GBP 437.3 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: revenue 437300000; grossProfit 176800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BAG.LSE: A.G. BARR p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells soft drinks and cocktail solutions in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates in three segments: Soft Drinks, Cocktail Solutions, and Other. The company provides mixers, various fruit purees, boost drinks, energy stimulation drinks, sport drinks, iced coffee, oat drinks, spring and sparkling water, fruit juices, and other non-alcoholic beverages. It also engages in the distribution of fruit based soft-drinks, as well as distribution and sale of oat drinks and cereals. The company sells its products under the IRN-BRU, Bundaberg, Barr Flavours, KA, D'N'B, OMJ!, Rubicon, Simply Fruity, Snapple, Sun Exotic, Tizer, and MOMA brands. A.G. BARR p.l.c. was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Cumbernauld, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.6% to 40.4% during 2024–26; it earns 18.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 40.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.27059229809439356],[2018,0.2562567910721039],[2019,0.24285606846863106],[2020,0.18211010204376235],[2021,0.13493963199240785],[2022,0.19561463064155718],[2023,0.1893112324146807],[2024,0.1857678616831935],[2025,0.17877960656971437],[2026,0.182647033426962]]; median 0.1875395470489371. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 17.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 77.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 12400000; owner earnings 31800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2018: growth capex 2600000; upkeep 8200000; owner earnings 37200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06989247311827956.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2019: growth capex 100000; upkeep 8800000; owner earnings 35800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002793296089385475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 14800000; owner earnings 28000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7100000; owner earnings 24400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5000000; owner earnings 33180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2023: growth capex 3600000; upkeep 11000000; owner earnings 32880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10948905109489052.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2024: growth capex 5500000; upkeep 12300000; owner earnings 37520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14658848614072495.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); FY2025: growth capex 7000000; upkeep 12200000; owner earnings 38780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18050541516245489.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: growth capex 5525724.736179404; upkeep 24874275.263820596; owner earnings 31925724.736179404. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17308063581458652.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); Incremental return on capital 0.7739145655325795, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,15600000],[2018,16900000],[2019,17900000],[2020,19000000],[2021,19000000],[2022,13400000],[2023,13900000],[2024,14700000],[2025,17200000],[2026,19200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 5000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BAG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.293999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.01349923361455685. Price 566; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.20006001800540163 → FY2026 0.2844895009599746. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 471.30 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 502.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 501.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 502.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 521.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 579.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 621.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 658.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 616.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 600.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 630.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 618.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 624.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 614.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 666.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 642.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 660.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 657.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 697.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 680.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 687.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 677.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 702.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 720.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 764.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 797.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 789.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 754.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 765.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 807.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 852.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 946.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 927.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 686.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 595.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 579.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 555.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 588.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 580.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 605.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 535.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 482.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 493.50 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 485.50 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 451.50 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 430.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 425.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 487.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 471.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 499.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 519.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 490.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 501.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 491.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 508.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 522.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 518.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 575.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 557.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 517.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 496.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 528.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 518.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 495.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 517.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 535.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 581.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 536.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 517.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 541.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 503.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 455.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 449.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 505.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 533.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 550.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 556.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 504.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 503.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 505.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 470.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 471.50 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 487.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 491.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 491.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 477.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 513.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 568.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 521.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 582.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 571.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 623.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 600.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 644.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 666.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 624.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 623.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 618.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 609.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 610.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 604.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 614.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 692.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 694.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 688.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 689.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 682.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 668.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 669.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 649.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 624.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 638.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 696.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 652.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 641.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 610.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 633.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 650.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 596.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 576.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 566.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 236.51 per share, central GBX 287.55 per share, high GBX 334.47 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 370.31 per share, central GBX 536.39 per share, high GBX 629.02 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 438.08 per share, central GBX 605.18 per share, high GBX 707.60 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 316.15 per share, central GBX 359.02 per share, high GBX 416.09 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 317.93 per share, central GBX 355.80 per share, high GBX 406.21 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 379.70 per share, central GBX 424.27 per share, high GBX 483.60 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 399.64 per share, central GBX 473.95 per share, high GBX 545.24 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 494.26 per share, central GBX 599.90 per share, high GBX 692.89 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 510.23 per share, central GBX 612.77 per share, high GBX 705.96 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 500.72 per share, central GBX 608.24 per share, high GBX 698.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31/reports/213800QWTXXXF8BNEC87-2026-01-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-04-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

A.G.Barr

BAG · LSE

FTSE 250

A wonderful business at a fair price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price: GBX 566.00
Buy up to: GBX 619.95
Expected / yr: 10.8% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 12.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 14.6%
Worst year: 11.8%
Latest · 2026: 14.1%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 18.8% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 17.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 18.8%
Worst year: 13.5%
Latest · 2026: 18.3%

Each $1 of profit left $0.93 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.93×
Annual median: 0.97×
Latest · 2026: 0.68×

Per-share value rose from 0.31 to 0.36, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.31
Worst year: GBP 0.17
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.42

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -1.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -2.7%
Worst year: -0.5%
Latest · 2026: -1.1%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 14.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.32 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 471.30; 2016-11 · Price GBX 502.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 501.50; 2017-01 · Price GBX 502.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-02 · Price GBX 521.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-03 · Price GBX 579.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-04 · Price GBX 621.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-05 · Price GBX 658.50 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-06 · Price GBX 616.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-07 · Price GBX 600.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-08 · Price GBX 630.50 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-09 · Price GBX 618.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-10 · Price GBX 624.50 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-11 · Price GBX 614.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2017-12 · Price GBX 666.50 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2018-01 · Price GBX 642.00 · Value 287.55 · Buy at or below 287.55; 2018-02 · Price GBX 660.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-03 · Price GBX 657.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-04 · Price GBX 697.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-05 · Price GBX 680.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-06 · Price GBX 687.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-07 · Price GBX 677.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-08 · Price GBX 702.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-09 · Price GBX 720.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-10 · Price GBX 764.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-11 · Price GBX 797.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2018-12 · Price GBX 789.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2019-01 · Price GBX 754.00 · Value 536.39 · Buy at or below 536.39; 2019-02 · Price GBX 765.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-03 · Price GBX 807.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-04 · Price GBX 852.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-05 · Price GBX 946.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-06 · Price GBX 927.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-07 · Price GBX 686.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-08 · Price GBX 595.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-09 · Price GBX 579.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-10 · Price GBX 555.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-11 · Price GBX 588.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2019-12 · Price GBX 580.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2020-01 · Price GBX 605.00 · Value 605.18 · Buy at or below 605.18; 2020-02 · Price GBX 535.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-03 · Price GBX 482.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-04 · Price GBX 493.50 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-05 · Price GBX 485.50 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-06 · Price GBX 451.50 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-07 · Price GBX 430.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-08 · Price GBX 425.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-09 · Price GBX 487.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-10 · Price GBX 471.50 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-11 · Price GBX 499.50 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2020-12 · Price GBX 519.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2021-01 · Price GBX 490.00 · Value 359.02 · Buy at or below 359.02; 2021-02 · Price GBX 501.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-03 · Price GBX 491.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-04 · Price GBX 508.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-05 · Price GBX 522.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-06 · Price GBX 518.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-07 · Price GBX 575.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-08 · Price GBX 557.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-09 · Price GBX 517.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-10 · Price GBX 496.50 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-11 · Price GBX 528.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2021-12 · Price GBX 518.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2022-01 · Price GBX 495.00 · Value 355.80 · Buy at or below 355.80; 2022-02 · Price GBX 517.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-03 · Price GBX 535.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-04 · Price GBX 581.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-05 · Price GBX 536.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-06 · Price GBX 517.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-07 · Price GBX 541.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-08 · Price GBX 503.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-09 · Price GBX 455.50 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-10 · Price GBX 449.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-11 · Price GBX 505.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2022-12 · Price GBX 533.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2023-01 · Price GBX 550.00 · Value 424.27 · Buy at or below 424.27; 2023-02 · Price GBX 556.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-03 · Price GBX 504.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-04 · Price GBX 503.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-05 · Price GBX 505.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-06 · Price GBX 470.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-07 · Price GBX 471.50 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-08 · Price GBX 487.50 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-09 · Price GBX 491.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-10 · Price GBX 491.50 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-11 · Price GBX 477.50 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2023-12 · Price GBX 513.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2024-01 · Price GBX 568.00 · Value 473.95 · Buy at or below 473.95; 2024-02 · Price GBX 521.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-03 · Price GBX 582.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-04 · Price GBX 571.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-05 · Price GBX 623.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-06 · Price GBX 600.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-07 · Price GBX 644.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-08 · Price GBX 666.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-09 · Price GBX 624.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-10 · Price GBX 623.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-11 · Price GBX 618.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2024-12 · Price GBX 609.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2025-01 · Price GBX 610.00 · Value 599.90 · Buy at or below 599.90; 2025-02 · Price GBX 604.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-03 · Price GBX 614.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-04 · Price GBX 692.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-05 · Price GBX 694.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-06 · Price GBX 688.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-07 · Price GBX 689.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-08 · Price GBX 682.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-09 · Price GBX 668.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-10 · Price GBX 669.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-11 · Price GBX 649.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2025-12 · Price GBX 624.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2026-01 · Price GBX 638.00 · Value 612.77 · Buy at or below 612.77; 2026-02 · Price GBX 696.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-03 · Price GBX 652.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-04 · Price GBX 641.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-05 · Price GBX 610.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-06 · Price GBX 633.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-07 · Price GBX 650.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-08 · Price GBX 596.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-09 · Price GBX 576.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-10 · Price GBX 566.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24; 2026-10 · Price GBX 566.00 · Value 608.24 · Buy at or below 608.24

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 510.36 – GBX 712.42
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 619.95
Discount to value	1 − 566.00 / 619.95 = 8.7%
Return / year	About 10.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 37.26/share; 3.2% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 66.17/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 437M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 32M

Owner earnings

Operating margin14.1%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 34M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares112M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·