# Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BBOX.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:11.965Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 144.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 165.91 per share, central GBX 208.67 per share, high GBX 242.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 208.67 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:11.965Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.2% at the stated quote. About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.93×

- FY2017: 0.95×

- FY2018: 1.03×

- FY2019: 0.88×

- FY2020: 0.92×

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 1.75×

- FY2025: 0.81×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.4%

- FY2017: 6.3%

- FY2018: 5.9%

- FY2019: 3.2%

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 18.1%

- FY2022: -9.0%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: 8.0%

- FY2025: 2.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -28.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -23.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.9% vs 3.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.10 to 0.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 8.4%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 3.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 8.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.14

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 2.3M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.10

- FY2017: GBP 0.17

- FY2018: GBP 0.17

- FY2019: GBP 0.08

- FY2020: GBP 0.26

- FY2021: GBP 0.54

- FY2022: GBP -0.32

- FY2023: GBP 0.04

- FY2024: GBP 0.18

- FY2025: GBP 0.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.70×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.1%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 5.1%

- FY2019: 1.2%

- FY2020: 7.1%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: -15.1%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: 3.7%

- FY2025: 1.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 42% since Dec 2021 · sales +17.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.814Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: GBP 99M 

- FY2017: GBP 260M 

- FY2018: GBP 264M 

- FY2019: GBP 161M 

- FY2020: GBP 487M 

- FY2021: GBP 996M 

- FY2022: GBP -574M 

- FY2023: GBP 229M 

- FY2024: GBP 294M 

- FY2025: GBP 345M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 84.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-09.

- FY2016: 88.0% 

- FY2017: 94.3% 

- FY2018: 92.3% 

- FY2020: 95.4% 

- FY2021: 96.9% 

- FY2023: 97.2% 

- FY2024: 93.8% 

- FY2025: 84.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are GBP 344.5 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: revenue 344500000; grossProfit 292100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 84.8% to 97.2% during 2023–25; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 97.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 93.8%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 84.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.03350088895619156],[2017,0.06275910975343661],[2018,0.058873678238336814],[2019,0.03216096754074355],[2020,0.10682704193210991],[2021,0.1814868804664723],[2022,-0.09027194142174311],[2023,0.03848707867475054],[2024,0.07984933950457364],[2025,0.0288687044203986]]; median 0.048680378456543674. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 69.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 24.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 28975000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2017: growth capex 93780000; upkeep -93780000; owner earnings 247800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3784503631961259.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2018: growth capex 60791010.47080386; upkeep -60791010.47080386; owner earnings 198661010.47080386. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3060037313146456.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 141600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2020: growth capex 125500000; upkeep 4500000; owner earnings 449400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.27926123720516244.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4200000; owner earnings 973800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2023: growth capex 44600000; upkeep 4400000; owner earnings 70000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6371428571428571.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 446100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-09); FY2025: growth capex 251600000; upkeep 900000; owner earnings 363300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6925406000550509.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Incremental return on capital 0.24816598656821193, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,57796000],[2017,77310000],[2018,95500000],[2019,115500000],[2020,109600000],[2021,114300000],[2022,129200000],[2023,135300000],[2024,174100000],[2025,199800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BBOX.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.701 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03056623696949473. Price 144.3; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.0908719177600463 → FY2025 0.14162229843673618. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 135.80 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 131.60 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 139.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 138.40 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 145.90 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 144.60 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 140.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 147.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 146.20 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 149.80 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 142.90 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 142.40 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 147.30 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 144.90 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 148.90 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 149.10 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 140.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 144.30 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 149.80 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 155.90 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 152.30 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 150.90 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 147.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 142.90 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 135.40 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 131.30 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 139.70 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 142.30 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 143.60 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 148.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 148.20 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 154.30 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 153.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 140.10 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 149.60 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 150.30 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 148.20 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 148.80 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 139.70 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 130.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 112.20 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 120.60 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 138.80 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 145.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 151.40 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 155.80 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 155.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 156.60 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 165.40 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 167.90 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 184.40 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 180.10 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 179.50 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 190.30 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 196.90 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 196.30 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 210.60 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 237.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 212.60 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 225.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 238.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 249.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 237.40 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 235.40 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 241.80 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 243.80 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 203.60 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 181.50 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 197.20 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 166.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 135.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 140.30 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 138.60 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 155.80 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 149.70 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 139.90 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 155.10 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 140.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 125.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 138.10 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 141.20 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 139.80 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 136.80 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 153.10 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 168.90 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 166.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 146.60 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 157.20 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 151.60 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 158.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 155.10 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 165.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 162.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 159.10 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 141.10 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 139.10 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 132.70 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 146.10 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 147.30 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 140.40 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 146.90 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 147.60 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 141.30 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 138.80 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 144.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 150.10 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 148.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 152.20 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 165.30 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 172.30 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 141.30 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 151.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 150.70 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 161.40 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 170.10 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 157.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 146.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 144.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 189.11 per share, central GBX 214.79 per share, high GBX 248.98 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 91.36 per share, central GBX 103.82 per share, high GBX 120.39 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 277.42 per share, central GBX 315.29 per share, high GBX 365.69 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 555.55 per share, central GBX 631.76 per share, high GBX 733.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:58.540Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800L6X88MIYPVR714/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31/reports/213800L6X88MIYPVR714-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Tritax Big Box REIT

BBOX · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 144.30
Buy up to: GBX 208.67
Expected / yr: 13.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 26.7% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

9y median: 93.3%
Worst year: 80.6%
Latest · 2025: 80.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4.9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 2.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 4.9%
Worst year: -9.0%
Latest · 2025: 2.9%

Each $1 of profit left $1.00 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.00×
Annual median: 1.00×
Latest · 2025: 1.00×

Share growth was 5.7% over ten years and 8.4% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.15
Worst year: GBP -0.32
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.14

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 1.4% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 2.6%
Worst year: 13.9%
Latest · 2025: 1.4%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 100.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.12 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 135.80; 2016-11 · Price GBX 131.60; 2016-12 · Price GBX 139.50; 2017-01 · Price GBX 138.40; 2017-02 · Price GBX 145.90; 2017-03 · Price GBX 144.60; 2017-04 · Price GBX 140.00; 2017-05 · Price GBX 147.50; 2017-06 · Price GBX 146.20; 2017-07 · Price GBX 149.80; 2017-08 · Price GBX 142.90; 2017-09 · Price GBX 142.40; 2017-10 · Price GBX 147.30; 2017-11 · Price GBX 144.90; 2017-12 · Price GBX 148.90; 2018-01 · Price GBX 149.10 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-02 · Price GBX 140.50 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-03 · Price GBX 144.30 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-04 · Price GBX 149.80 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-05 · Price GBX 150.00 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-06 · Price GBX 155.90 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-07 · Price GBX 152.30 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-08 · Price GBX 150.90 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-09 · Price GBX 147.50 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-10 · Price GBX 142.90 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-11 · Price GBX 135.40 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2018-12 · Price GBX 131.30 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2019-01 · Price GBX 139.70 · Value 214.79 · Buy at or below 214.79; 2019-02 · Price GBX 142.30 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-03 · Price GBX 143.60 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-04 · Price GBX 148.60 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-05 · Price GBX 148.20 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-06 · Price GBX 154.30 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-07 · Price GBX 153.00 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-08 · Price GBX 140.10 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-09 · Price GBX 149.60 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-10 · Price GBX 150.30 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-11 · Price GBX 148.20 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2019-12 · Price GBX 148.80 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2020-01 · Price GBX 139.70 · Value 103.82 · Buy at or below 103.82; 2020-02 · Price GBX 130.00 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-03 · Price GBX 112.20 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-04 · Price GBX 120.60 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-05 · Price GBX 138.80 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-06 · Price GBX 145.00 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-07 · Price GBX 151.40 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-08 · Price GBX 155.80 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-09 · Price GBX 155.00 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-10 · Price GBX 156.60 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-11 · Price GBX 165.40 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2020-12 · Price GBX 167.90 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2021-01 · Price GBX 184.40 · Value 315.29 · Buy at or below 315.29; 2021-02 · Price GBX 180.10 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-03 · Price GBX 179.50 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-04 · Price GBX 190.30 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-05 · Price GBX 196.90 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-06 · Price GBX 196.30 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-07 · Price GBX 210.60 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-08 · Price GBX 237.00 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-09 · Price GBX 212.60 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-10 · Price GBX 225.00 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-11 · Price GBX 238.00 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2021-12 · Price GBX 249.00 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2022-01 · Price GBX 237.40 · Value 631.76 · Buy at or below 631.76; 2022-02 · Price GBX 235.40 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-03 · Price GBX 241.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-04 · Price GBX 243.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-05 · Price GBX 203.60 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-06 · Price GBX 181.50 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-07 · Price GBX 197.20 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-08 · Price GBX 166.50 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-09 · Price GBX 135.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-10 · Price GBX 140.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-11 · Price GBX 143.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2022-12 · Price GBX 138.60 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-01 · Price GBX 155.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-02 · Price GBX 149.70 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-03 · Price GBX 139.90 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-04 · Price GBX 155.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-05 · Price GBX 140.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-06 · Price GBX 125.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-07 · Price GBX 138.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-08 · Price GBX 141.20 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-09 · Price GBX 139.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-10 · Price GBX 136.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-11 · Price GBX 153.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2023-12 · Price GBX 168.90 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-01 · Price GBX 166.20 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-02 · Price GBX 146.60 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-03 · Price GBX 157.20 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-04 · Price GBX 151.60 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-05 · Price GBX 158.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-06 · Price GBX 155.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-07 · Price GBX 165.50 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-08 · Price GBX 162.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-09 · Price GBX 159.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-10 · Price GBX 141.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-11 · Price GBX 139.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2024-12 · Price GBX 132.70 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-01 · Price GBX 146.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-02 · Price GBX 147.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-03 · Price GBX 140.40 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-04 · Price GBX 143.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-05 · Price GBX 146.90 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-06 · Price GBX 147.60 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-07 · Price GBX 141.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-08 · Price GBX 138.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-09 · Price GBX 144.50 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-10 · Price GBX 150.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-11 · Price GBX 148.80 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2025-12 · Price GBX 152.20 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-01 · Price GBX 165.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-02 · Price GBX 172.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-03 · Price GBX 141.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-04 · Price GBX 151.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-05 · Price GBX 150.70 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-06 · Price GBX 161.40 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-07 · Price GBX 170.10 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-08 · Price GBX 157.40 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-09 · Price GBX 146.00 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-10 · Price GBX 144.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67; 2026-10 · Price GBX 144.30 · Value 208.67 · Buy at or below 208.67

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 165.91 – GBX 242.99
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 208.67
Discount to value	1 − 144.30 / 208.67 = 30.8%
Return / year	About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 13.38/share; 3.7% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 4.17/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 345M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 363M

Owner earnings

Operating margin80.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -2.5B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares2.6B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·