Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).
- 10y median
- EUR 4.6B
- Worst year
- EUR 918M
- Latest · 2025
- EUR 11B
# Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.MC) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BBVA.MC Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026. Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: EUR 22.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low EUR 13.27 per share, central EUR 16.58 per share, high EUR 22.11 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 16.58 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; ES 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 10 - Required profitable years: 9 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.48× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: EUR 3.2B - FY2017: EUR 3.1B - FY2018: EUR 5.0B - FY2019: EUR 3.1B - FY2020: EUR 918M - FY2021: EUR 4.3B - FY2022: EUR 6.1B - FY2023: EUR 8.0B - FY2024: EUR 10B - FY2025: EUR 11B ### moat: fail - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - median return on common equity below threshold - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 11.5% - Required median return: 12.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: Yes - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 7.4% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 8.6% - FY2017: 8.1% - FY2018: 12.8% - FY2019: 7.4% - FY2020: 2.3% - FY2021: 10.3% - FY2022: 13.7% - FY2023: 16.5% - FY2024: 18.9% - FY2025: 19.3% ### economics: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 10.8% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: EUR 5.55 - Ending book value per share: EUR 9.48 Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 7.7% - FY2017: 3.8% - FY2018: 0.5% - FY2019: 21.6% - FY2020: -12.2% - FY2021: 21.5% - FY2022: 18.9% - FY2023: 19.3% - FY2024: 21.4% - FY2025: 10.8% ### management: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.5% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.8% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.5% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -4.8% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.59× - Book value created per share: EUR 3.94 - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: EUR 2.48 Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations. - FY2015: 100 - FY2016: 98 - FY2017: 99 - FY2018: 106 - FY2019: 99 - FY2020: 109 - FY2021: 97 - FY2022: 92 - FY2023: 89 - FY2024: 86 - FY2025: 86 ### accounting: pass - Financial accounting warning count: 0 - Known restatement years: 0 ## Holders ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 7.1% a year forever · "Spain’s BBVA Profit Rises on Loan Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · net income +5.7% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.897Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 7.1% a year forever - 2025-07-08: BBVA Reportedly Says Cost Savings From Sabadell Deal Delayed, Not Reduced ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bbva-reportedly-says-cost-savings-132531039.html)) - 2025-10-30: BBVA’s Profit Suffers from Currency Hit Despite Strong Loan Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1811ef87-c323-3bf2-8a19-e6f9ac5ded25/bbva%E2%80%99s-profit-suffers-from.html)) - 2026-02-05: BBVA Shares Slide as Provisions Jump 19%, Capital Ratio Misses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bbva-shares-slide-provisions-jump-132138211.html)) ### Net income · FY2026 net income +5.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16. - FY2017: EUR 3.1B - FY2018: EUR 5.0B - FY2019: EUR 3.1B - FY2020: EUR 918M - FY2021: EUR 4.3B - FY2022: EUR 6.1B - FY2023: EUR 8.0B - FY2024: EUR 10B - FY2025: EUR 11B - FY2026: EUR 11B ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in diversified banking; annual sales are EUR 36.9 billion. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z); FY2025: revenue 36930000000. ### Why customers stay It earns 11.5% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.08555537814678801],[2017,0.08141714406399324],[2018,0.12767767380713016],[2019,0.07406609195402299],[2020,0.023334434813553292],[2021,0.10294893310956606],[2022,0.13650282751067302],[2023,0.16519374575118967],[2024,0.18911293356406592],[2025,0.19286238532110092]]; median 0.11531330345834812. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 2 billion of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1599000000],[2017,1698000000],[2018,2107000000],[2019,2147000000],[2020,1065000000],[2021,926000000],[2022,2185000000],[2023,2808000000],[2024,3913000000],[2025,4196000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1995000000 EUR. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.1% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BBVA.MC SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.105 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 7.1% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:36.568Z); Price 22.99; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 0.663340902963418; discount 0.1; growth 0.0711465461955886. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share) - 2016-10: EUR 6.58 per share - 2016-11: EUR 5.83 per share - 2016-12: EUR 6.41 per share - 2017-01: EUR 6.28 per share - 2017-02: EUR 6.18 per share - 2017-03: EUR 7.27 per share - 2017-04: EUR 7.35 per share - 2017-05: EUR 7.25 per share - 2017-06: EUR 7.27 per share - 2017-07: EUR 7.65 per share - 2017-08: EUR 7.42 per share - 2017-09: EUR 7.56 per share - 2017-10: EUR 7.51 per share - 2017-11: EUR 7.18 per share - 2017-12: EUR 7.11 per share - 2018-01: EUR 7.57 per share - 2018-02: EUR 6.89 per share - 2018-03: EUR 6.43 per share - 2018-04: EUR 6.73 per share - 2018-05: EUR 5.84 per share - 2018-06: EUR 6.07 per share - 2018-07: EUR 6.29 per share - 2018-08: EUR 5.37 per share - 2018-09: EUR 5.49 per share - 2018-10: EUR 4.89 per share - 2018-11: EUR 5.02 per share - 2018-12: EUR 4.64 per share - 2019-01: EUR 5.17 per share - 2019-02: EUR 5.47 per share - 2019-03: EUR 5.09 per share - 2019-04: EUR 5.42 per share - 2019-05: EUR 4.87 per share - 2019-06: EUR 4.92 per share - 2019-07: EUR 4.60 per share - 2019-08: EUR 4.31 per share - 2019-09: EUR 4.78 per share - 2019-10: EUR 4.72 per share - 2019-11: EUR 4.78 per share - 2019-12: EUR 4.98 per share - 2020-01: EUR 4.67 per share - 2020-02: EUR 4.33 per share - 2020-03: EUR 2.92 per share - 2020-04: EUR 2.99 per share - 2020-05: EUR 2.79 per share - 2020-06: EUR 3.06 per share - 2020-07: EUR 2.64 per share - 2020-08: EUR 2.45 per share - 2020-09: EUR 2.37 per share - 2020-10: EUR 2.46 per share - 2020-11: EUR 3.93 per share - 2020-12: EUR 4.04 per share - 2021-01: EUR 3.77 per share - 2021-02: EUR 4.60 per share - 2021-03: EUR 4.43 per share - 2021-04: EUR 4.67 per share - 2021-05: EUR 5.14 per share - 2021-06: EUR 5.23 per share - 2021-07: EUR 5.41 per share - 2021-08: EUR 5.55 per share - 2021-09: EUR 5.72 per share - 2021-10: EUR 6.06 per share - 2021-11: EUR 4.70 per share - 2021-12: EUR 5.25 per share - 2022-01: EUR 5.63 per share - 2022-02: EUR 5.29 per share - 2022-03: EUR 5.21 per share - 2022-04: EUR 5.06 per share - 2022-05: EUR 5.08 per share - 2022-06: EUR 4.33 per share - 2022-07: EUR 4.42 per share - 2022-08: EUR 4.49 per share - 2022-09: EUR 4.62 per share - 2022-10: EUR 5.21 per share - 2022-11: EUR 5.61 per share - 2022-12: EUR 5.63 per share - 2023-01: EUR 6.46 per share - 2023-02: EUR 7.37 per share - 2023-03: EUR 6.57 per share - 2023-04: EUR 6.65 per share - 2023-05: EUR 6.12 per share - 2023-06: EUR 7.03 per share - 2023-07: EUR 7.21 per share - 2023-08: EUR 7.27 per share - 2023-09: EUR 7.71 per share - 2023-10: EUR 7.42 per share - 2023-11: EUR 8.51 per share - 2023-12: EUR 8.23 per share - 2024-01: EUR 8.68 per share - 2024-02: EUR 9.19 per share - 2024-03: EUR 11.04 per share - 2024-04: EUR 10.18 per share - 2024-05: EUR 9.94 per share - 2024-06: EUR 9.35 per share - 2024-07: EUR 9.70 per share - 2024-08: EUR 9.59 per share - 2024-09: EUR 9.71 per share - 2024-10: EUR 9.15 per share - 2024-11: EUR 8.94 per share - 2024-12: EUR 9.45 per share - 2025-01: EUR 11.05 per share - 2025-02: EUR 12.83 per share - 2025-03: EUR 12.55 per share - 2025-04: EUR 12.06 per share - 2025-05: EUR 13.21 per share - 2025-06: EUR 13.06 per share - 2025-07: EUR 14.64 per share - 2025-08: EUR 15.49 per share - 2025-09: EUR 16.34 per share - 2025-10: EUR 17.44 per share - 2025-11: EUR 18.57 per share - 2025-12: EUR 20.05 per share - 2026-01: EUR 21.45 per share - 2026-02: EUR 19.75 per share - 2026-03: EUR 18.25 per share - 2026-04: EUR 18.81 per share - 2026-05: EUR 20.11 per share - 2026-06: EUR 21.87 per share - 2026-07: EUR 24.20 per share - 2026-08: EUR 25.03 per share - 2026-09: EUR 24.81 per share - 2026-10: EUR 23.22 per share ## Annual estimated value (EUR per share) - FY2016: low EUR 3.99 per share, central EUR 4.94 per share, high EUR 6.49 per share - FY2017: low EUR 3.92 per share, central EUR 4.78 per share, high EUR 6.11 per share - FY2018: low EUR 4.57 per share, central EUR 5.03 per share, high EUR 5.58 per share - FY2019: low EUR 5.04 per share, central EUR 5.54 per share, high EUR 6.16 per share - FY2020: low EUR 3.78 per share, central EUR 4.16 per share, high EUR 4.62 per share - FY2021: low EUR 3.38 per share, central EUR 3.95 per share, high EUR 4.75 per share - FY2022: low EUR 4.58 per share, central EUR 5.51 per share, high EUR 6.91 per share - FY2023: low EUR 5.41 per share, central EUR 6.71 per share, high EUR 8.83 per share - FY2024: low EUR 7.77 per share, central EUR 9.71 per share, high EUR 12.95 per share - FY2025: low EUR 12.40 per share, central EUR 15.50 per share, high EUR 20.66 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:22.186Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
BBVA · MC
Euro Stoxx 50 · STOXX Europe 600 · IBEX 35
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).
Earned a median 11.5% on tangible equity (minimum 12%).
Book value plus dividends grew 10.8% a year (minimum 7%).
Ordinary share growth was -1.5% over the full period and -4.8% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).
0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 1.64 EUR.
| Value range | EUR 13.27 – EUR 22.11 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value EUR 16.58 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 22.99 / 16.58 = -38.6% |
| Return / year | About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book EUR 10.15/share; ROE 12.5%; first payout EUR 0.66/share, growing 6.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |