# Boise Cascad Llc (BCC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BCC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:50.432Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $75.48 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $124.45 per share, central $140.91 per share, high $162.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $140.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:50.432Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.9% at the stated quote. About 16.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.69×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.2%

- FY2017: 11.3%

- FY2018: 7.7%

- FY2019: 11.5%

- FY2020: 23.5%

- FY2021: 67.9%

- FY2022: 60.0%

- FY2023: 29.2%

- FY2024: 20.6%

- FY2025: 6.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.40×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.2% vs 20.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.33 to 9.57 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: $1.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 28.0%

- Per-share value change: $8.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.57

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.76

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $332M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.98

- FY2017: $2.12

- FY2018: $0.52

- FY2019: $2.06

- FY2020: $4.44

- FY2021: $17.97

- FY2022: $21.56

- FY2023: $12.12

- FY2024: $9.57

- FY2025: $3.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.91×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.9%

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: -9.1%

- FY2019: -9.7%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: 1.8%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: -1.8%

- FY2025: -3.7%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 51% since Mar 2024 · "Boise Cascade Reports Lower Sales, Profit as Home Construction Slows" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales -4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:22.788Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-05: Boise Cascade Reports Lower Sales, Profit as Home Construction Slows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f9e1def2-91e5-3a9f-91cf-9fc7f59f9bcd/boise-cascade-reports-lower.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $3.9B 

- FY2017: $4.4B 

- FY2018: $5.0B 

- FY2019: $4.6B 

- FY2020: $5.5B 

- FY2021: $7.9B 

- FY2022: $8.4B 

- FY2023: $6.8B 

- FY2024: $6.7B 

- FY2025: $6.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 13.1% 

- FY2017: 13.8% 

- FY2018: 13.8% 

- FY2019: 14.6% 

- FY2020: 17.1% 

- FY2021: 20.5% 

- FY2022: 22.8% 

- FY2023: 20.9% 

- FY2024: 19.8% 

- FY2025: 14.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in lumber & wood production; annual sales are USD 6.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 6404595000; grossProfit 895672000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); BCC.US: Boise Cascade Company engages in the manufacture and sale of engineered wood products and plywood and wholesale distribution of building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. The Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber and beams for use in headers and beams; I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems and other structural applications; structural, appearance, and industrial grade plywood panels; and ponderosa pine lumber and appearance grade boards. The Building Materials Distribution segment distributes a line of building materials, including oriented strand boards, plywood, and lumber; general line items, such as siding, composite decking, doors and millwork, metal products, insulation, and roofing; and engineered wood products. It markets and sells its products to dealers, home improvement centers, wholesalers, specialty distributors, and industrial converters for use in the construction of new residential housing, repair and remodeling of existing housing, construction of light industrial and commercial buildings, and other industrial applications through warehouse and direct sales. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14% to 20.9% during 2023–25; it earns 16.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08191667277950478],[2017,0.11312415955035336],[2018,0.07749941656229294],[2019,0.1148787143059801],[2020,0.23468544634331914],[2021,0.678734639088326],[2022,0.5995741248330101],[2023,0.2915767619115415],[2024,0.20623008576381643],[2025,0.06857832030489881]]; median 0.16055440003489826. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 183.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 8656000; upkeep 74927000; owner earnings 38254000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22627699064150153.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 75450000; owner earnings 89828000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 79987000; owner earnings 89427000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 82720000; owner earnings 80582000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 79429000; owner earnings 192681000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 24029000; upkeep 82489000; owner earnings 712486000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.033725574958665856.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 10238000; upkeep 103879000; owner earnings 857658000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011937159100713805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 215438000; owner earnings 403632000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 229569000; owner earnings 294187000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 241431000; owner earnings 53254000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,2701000],[2017,2701000],[2018,50615000],[2019,53954000],[2020,79195000],[2021,213681000],[2022,159564000],[2023,346493000],[2024,228814000],[2025,34624000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 183108000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); BCC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.216 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.11628790994701793. Price 75.48; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7185549074566178 → FY2025 1.4156144501448735. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $19.25 per share

- 2016-11: $22.80 per share

- 2016-12: $22.50 per share

- 2017-01: $24.80 per share

- 2017-02: $27.10 per share

- 2017-03: $26.70 per share

- 2017-04: $30.50 per share

- 2017-05: $26.95 per share

- 2017-06: $30.40 per share

- 2017-07: $30.35 per share

- 2017-08: $30.00 per share

- 2017-09: $34.90 per share

- 2017-10: $35.45 per share

- 2017-11: $38.50 per share

- 2017-12: $39.90 per share

- 2018-01: $44.45 per share

- 2018-02: $40.30 per share

- 2018-03: $38.60 per share

- 2018-04: $41.60 per share

- 2018-05: $47.70 per share

- 2018-06: $44.70 per share

- 2018-07: $43.25 per share

- 2018-08: $43.70 per share

- 2018-09: $36.80 per share

- 2018-10: $30.79 per share

- 2018-11: $26.58 per share

- 2018-12: $23.85 per share

- 2019-01: $27.47 per share

- 2019-02: $27.89 per share

- 2019-03: $26.76 per share

- 2019-04: $27.69 per share

- 2019-05: $22.20 per share

- 2019-06: $28.11 per share

- 2019-07: $27.00 per share

- 2019-08: $31.40 per share

- 2019-09: $32.59 per share

- 2019-10: $35.77 per share

- 2019-11: $37.92 per share

- 2019-12: $36.53 per share

- 2020-01: $36.20 per share

- 2020-02: $35.48 per share

- 2020-03: $23.78 per share

- 2020-04: $31.27 per share

- 2020-05: $34.03 per share

- 2020-06: $37.61 per share

- 2020-07: $46.59 per share

- 2020-08: $45.80 per share

- 2020-09: $39.92 per share

- 2020-10: $38.38 per share

- 2020-11: $43.25 per share

- 2020-12: $47.80 per share

- 2021-01: $47.63 per share

- 2021-02: $49.94 per share

- 2021-03: $59.83 per share

- 2021-04: $66.72 per share

- 2021-05: $65.99 per share

- 2021-06: $58.35 per share

- 2021-07: $51.15 per share

- 2021-08: $57.85 per share

- 2021-09: $53.98 per share

- 2021-10: $56.62 per share

- 2021-11: $64.83 per share

- 2021-12: $71.20 per share

- 2022-01: $70.22 per share

- 2022-02: $79.94 per share

- 2022-03: $69.47 per share

- 2022-04: $75.58 per share

- 2022-05: $77.32 per share

- 2022-06: $59.49 per share

- 2022-07: $70.71 per share

- 2022-08: $62.33 per share

- 2022-09: $59.46 per share

- 2022-10: $66.77 per share

- 2022-11: $74.04 per share

- 2022-12: $68.67 per share

- 2023-01: $74.97 per share

- 2023-02: $69.11 per share

- 2023-03: $63.25 per share

- 2023-04: $68.31 per share

- 2023-05: $71.82 per share

- 2023-06: $90.35 per share

- 2023-07: $103.49 per share

- 2023-08: $109.37 per share

- 2023-09: $103.04 per share

- 2023-10: $93.75 per share

- 2023-11: $109.30 per share

- 2023-12: $129.36 per share

- 2024-01: $135.46 per share

- 2024-02: $135.91 per share

- 2024-03: $153.37 per share

- 2024-04: $132.27 per share

- 2024-05: $137.29 per share

- 2024-06: $119.22 per share

- 2024-07: $142.09 per share

- 2024-08: $135.62 per share

- 2024-09: $140.98 per share

- 2024-10: $133.03 per share

- 2024-11: $147.60 per share

- 2024-12: $118.86 per share

- 2025-01: $126.16 per share

- 2025-02: $103.66 per share

- 2025-03: $98.09 per share

- 2025-04: $93.28 per share

- 2025-05: $86.88 per share

- 2025-06: $86.82 per share

- 2025-07: $83.81 per share

- 2025-08: $87.00 per share

- 2025-09: $77.32 per share

- 2025-10: $70.49 per share

- 2025-11: $76.24 per share

- 2025-12: $73.60 per share

- 2026-01: $80.81 per share

- 2026-02: $82.74 per share

- 2026-03: $75.85 per share

- 2026-04: $79.27 per share

- 2026-05: $69.72 per share

- 2026-06: $77.63 per share

- 2026-07: $76.38 per share

- 2026-08: $78.01 per share

- 2026-09: $74.15 per share

- 2026-10: $75.48 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.94 per share, central $23.74 per share, high $27.46 per share

- FY2017: low $27.39 per share, central $30.86 per share, high $35.47 per share

- FY2018: low $27.15 per share, central $30.57 per share, high $35.12 per share

- FY2019: low $32.82 per share, central $44.78 per share, high $51.75 per share

- FY2020: low $41.30 per share, central $55.78 per share, high $64.21 per share

- FY2021: low $69.98 per share, central $93.59 per share, high $107.33 per share

- FY2022: low $120.38 per share, central $160.98 per share, high $185.35 per share

- FY2023: low $152.95 per share, central $202.75 per share, high $234.24 per share

- FY2024: low $125.06 per share, central $140.27 per share, high $160.52 per share

- FY2025: low $119.12 per share, central $134.26 per share, high $154.42 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328581/000132858126000006/bcc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.