# Bunge Global (BG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:54.287Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $107.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $123.25 per share, central $140.24 per share, high $162.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value $140.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:54.287Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.3% at the stated quote. About 12.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.78×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.01×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: -0.02×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 5.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 4.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.4%

- FY2017: 2.3%

- FY2018: 5.3%

- FY2019: -6.2%

- FY2020: 9.1%

- FY2021: 14.3%

- FY2022: 14.2%

- FY2023: 17.9%

- FY2024: 9.9%

- FY2025: 3.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.70×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.3% vs 9.9%

- Per-share earnings: 5.03 to 8.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Market cap gain: $7.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.2%

- Per-share value change: $3.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.46

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $3.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.03

- FY2017: $1.13

- FY2018: $1.88

- FY2019: -$9.05

- FY2020: $7.65

- FY2021: $13.64

- FY2022: $10.51

- FY2023: $15.26

- FY2024: $8.14

- FY2025: $4.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.33×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.03×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.22×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.6%

- FY2017: 11.3%

- FY2018: 7.9%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: 19.8%

- FY2021: 20.9%

- FY2022: 29.1%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -0.1%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.5% a year for ten years · "The primary culprit: a steep decline in global crop prices." (nasdaq.com, Jul 2025) · sales +32.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:23.540Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-13: Bunge cleared for Viterra deal by China regulator ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4458106-bunge-cleared-for-viterra-deal-by-china-regulator?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-12: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge to Benefit From Biofuel Blending, Soybean Cruse Margins, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/archer-daniels-midland-bunge-benefit-155859517.html))

- 2025-10-15: Bunge Global stock soars after recast outlook shows minimal dilution ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bunge-global-stock-soars-recast-143631113.html))

- 2025-11-05: Bunge beats profit estimates on strong processing margins, Viterra boost ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bunge-beats-profit-estimates-strong-111620440.html))

- 2026-02-18: Bunge Global Weighs Viterra Integration Costs Against Expanded Scale And Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bunge-global-weighs-viterra-integration-200904950.html))

- 2026-06-04: Bunge Global Cash Strain Raises Dilution Risks Despite Valuation Upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bunge-global-cash-strain-raises-071721388.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +32.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144519/000114451923000010/bg-20221231.htm; observed 2023-02-24.

- FY2016: $43B 

- FY2017: $46B 

- FY2018: $46B 

- FY2019: $41B 

- FY2020: $41B 

- FY2021: $59B 

- FY2022: $67B 

- FY2023: $60B 

- FY2024: $53B 

- FY2025: $70B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 4.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144519/000114451923000010/bg-20221231.htm; observed 2023-02-24.

- FY2016: 5.6% 

- FY2017: 3.9% 

- FY2018: 5.0% 

- FY2019: 1.3% 

- FY2020: 6.7% 

- FY2021: 5.7% 

- FY2022: 5.5% 

- FY2023: 8.1% 

- FY2024: 6.4% 

- FY2025: 4.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm products; annual sales are USD 70.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2025: revenue 70329000000; grossProfit 3409000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 4.8% to 8.1% during 2023–25; it earns 8.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08378236467980604],[2017,0.023380677511993082],[2018,0.05337002045388137],[2019,-0.06182143548075063],[2020,0.0912827074794051],[2021,0.1429430375677819],[2022,0.14169293209889225],[2023,0.1787720744949753],[2024,0.09859950430163689],[2025,0.03660396542958821]]; median 0.08753253607960557. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 0.5% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 784000000; owner earnings 508000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 53000000; upkeep 609000000; owner earnings 160000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33125.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 493000000; owner earnings 396000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 365000000; owner earnings 1215000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 399000000; owner earnings 2103000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144519/000114451923000010/bg-20221231.htm (filed 2023-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 147000000; upkeep 408000000; owner earnings 1610000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09130434782608696.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1122000000; owner earnings 1572000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1376000000; owner earnings 229000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 1020000000; upkeep 703000000; owner earnings 816000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.25.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); Incremental return on capital 0.005005223168483219, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,282000000],[2017,297000000],[2018,305000000],[2019,317000000],[2020,316000000],[2021,323000000],[2022,349000000],[2023,383000000],[2024,378000000],[2025,459000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 551000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.37 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are vulnerable to the effects of supply and demand imbalances in our industries" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996862/000162828026009842/bg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); We are vulnerable to the effects of supply and demand imbalances in our industries

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.047954923416697326. Price 107.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.512642285598273 → FY2025 4.184615384615385. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $62.01 per share

- 2016-11: $68.28 per share

- 2016-12: $72.24 per share

- 2017-01: $69.21 per share

- 2017-02: $81.85 per share

- 2017-03: $79.26 per share

- 2017-04: $79.03 per share

- 2017-05: $79.97 per share

- 2017-06: $74.60 per share

- 2017-07: $78.39 per share

- 2017-08: $74.63 per share

- 2017-09: $69.46 per share

- 2017-10: $68.78 per share

- 2017-11: $66.91 per share

- 2017-12: $67.08 per share

- 2018-01: $79.43 per share

- 2018-02: $75.43 per share

- 2018-03: $73.94 per share

- 2018-04: $72.23 per share

- 2018-05: $69.55 per share

- 2018-06: $69.71 per share

- 2018-07: $69.13 per share

- 2018-08: $64.98 per share

- 2018-09: $68.71 per share

- 2018-10: $61.80 per share

- 2018-11: $57.07 per share

- 2018-12: $53.44 per share

- 2019-01: $55.07 per share

- 2019-02: $53.08 per share

- 2019-03: $53.07 per share

- 2019-04: $52.41 per share

- 2019-05: $52.29 per share

- 2019-06: $55.71 per share

- 2019-07: $58.43 per share

- 2019-08: $53.41 per share

- 2019-09: $56.62 per share

- 2019-10: $54.00 per share

- 2019-11: $53.38 per share

- 2019-12: $57.55 per share

- 2020-01: $52.43 per share

- 2020-02: $46.95 per share

- 2020-03: $41.03 per share

- 2020-04: $39.67 per share

- 2020-05: $39.02 per share

- 2020-06: $41.13 per share

- 2020-07: $43.44 per share

- 2020-08: $45.62 per share

- 2020-09: $45.70 per share

- 2020-10: $56.73 per share

- 2020-11: $58.89 per share

- 2020-12: $65.58 per share

- 2021-01: $65.44 per share

- 2021-02: $76.58 per share

- 2021-03: $79.27 per share

- 2021-04: $84.42 per share

- 2021-05: $86.82 per share

- 2021-06: $78.15 per share

- 2021-07: $77.63 per share

- 2021-08: $75.71 per share

- 2021-09: $81.32 per share

- 2021-10: $92.64 per share

- 2021-11: $86.57 per share

- 2021-12: $93.36 per share

- 2022-01: $98.86 per share

- 2022-02: $104.55 per share

- 2022-03: $110.81 per share

- 2022-04: $113.12 per share

- 2022-05: $118.32 per share

- 2022-06: $90.69 per share

- 2022-07: $92.33 per share

- 2022-08: $99.17 per share

- 2022-09: $82.57 per share

- 2022-10: $98.70 per share

- 2022-11: $104.84 per share

- 2022-12: $99.77 per share

- 2023-01: $99.10 per share

- 2023-02: $95.50 per share

- 2023-03: $95.52 per share

- 2023-04: $93.60 per share

- 2023-05: $92.64 per share

- 2023-06: $94.35 per share

- 2023-07: $108.67 per share

- 2023-08: $114.32 per share

- 2023-09: $108.25 per share

- 2023-10: $105.98 per share

- 2023-11: $109.87 per share

- 2023-12: $100.95 per share

- 2024-01: $88.09 per share

- 2024-02: $94.37 per share

- 2024-03: $102.52 per share

- 2024-04: $101.76 per share

- 2024-05: $107.59 per share

- 2024-06: $106.77 per share

- 2024-07: $105.23 per share

- 2024-08: $101.38 per share

- 2024-09: $96.64 per share

- 2024-10: $84.02 per share

- 2024-11: $89.74 per share

- 2024-12: $77.76 per share

- 2025-01: $76.13 per share

- 2025-02: $74.19 per share

- 2025-03: $76.42 per share

- 2025-04: $78.72 per share

- 2025-05: $78.15 per share

- 2025-06: $80.28 per share

- 2025-07: $79.76 per share

- 2025-08: $84.22 per share

- 2025-09: $81.25 per share

- 2025-10: $94.60 per share

- 2025-11: $96.07 per share

- 2025-12: $89.08 per share

- 2026-01: $113.88 per share

- 2026-02: $120.65 per share

- 2026-03: $127.20 per share

- 2026-04: $127.07 per share

- 2026-05: $123.30 per share

- 2026-06: $106.73 per share

- 2026-07: $106.23 per share

- 2026-08: $116.21 per share

- 2026-09: $106.95 per share

- 2026-10: $107.01 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $17.19 per share, central $19.34 per share, high $22.20 per share

- FY2017: low $17.54 per share, central $19.96 per share, high $23.18 per share

- FY2018: low $30.55 per share, central $34.76 per share, high $40.36 per share

- FY2019: low $27.51 per share, central $31.31 per share, high $36.36 per share

- FY2020: low $26.17 per share, central $29.78 per share, high $34.59 per share

- FY2021: low $38.96 per share, central $44.92 per share, high $51.96 per share

- FY2022: low $116.53 per share, central $134.56 per share, high $156.40 per share

- FY2023: low $127.20 per share, central $143.32 per share, high $164.77 per share

- FY2024: low $129.34 per share, central $144.47 per share, high $164.62 per share

- FY2025: low $98.49 per share, central $111.51 per share, high $128.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144519/000114451923000010/bg-20221231.htm); period 2022-12-31, filed 2023-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.