# Bega Cheese (BGA.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BGA.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 6.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 0.39 per share, central AUD 0.42 per share, high AUD 0.46 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 0.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.3% at the stated quote. About 3.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.75×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.00×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: -0.01×

- FY2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 7.7%

- FY2019: 4.6%

- FY2020: 2.8%

- FY2021: 3.8%

- FY2022: 3.9%

- FY2023: 0.5%

- FY2024: 2.7%

- FY2025: -1.6%

- FY2026: 6.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD -226M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD -129M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 175.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.1%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: AUD 33M

- FY2023: AUD -236M

- FY2024: AUD 5.6M

- FY2025: AUD -47M

- FY2026: AUD 18M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.7% vs 2.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.19 to 0.10 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: AUD 659M

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD -241M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -7.8%

- Per-share value change: AUD -0.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.10

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 15.3%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 929M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 137M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.76

- FY2018: AUD 0.14

- FY2019: AUD 0.02

- FY2020: AUD 0.09

- FY2021: AUD 0.24

- FY2022: AUD 0.08

- FY2023: AUD -0.75

- FY2024: AUD 0.10

- FY2025: AUD -0.03

- FY2026: AUD 0.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.36×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.47×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.5%

- FY2018: -2.5%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -8.2%

- FY2021: -1.6%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -11.1%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -8.5%

- FY2026: -3.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 45% a year for ten years · sales +6.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.489Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 45% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 1.2B 

- FY2018: AUD 1.3B 

- FY2019: AUD 1.4B 

- FY2020: AUD 1.5B 

- FY2021: AUD 2.1B 

- FY2022: AUD 3.0B 

- FY2023: AUD 3.4B 

- FY2024: AUD 3.5B 

- FY2025: AUD 3.6B 

- FY2026: AUD 3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 20.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 13.2% 

- FY2018: 22.0% 

- FY2019: 19.9% 

- FY2020: 19.4% 

- FY2021: 22.4% 

- FY2022: 22.9% 

- FY2023: 19.4% 

- FY2024: 19.8% 

- FY2025: 20.9% 

- FY2026: 20.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are AUD 3.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2026: revenue 3774600000; grossProfit 785500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BGA.AU: Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment provides value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands. The Bulk segment offers bulk dairy ingredients, nutritional, and bio nutrient products. Its grocery categories include milk-based beverages, yoghurt, spreads, chilled juice and drinks, fresh white milk, creams and custards, and water ice under the Beqa, Vegemite, Tatura, Dairy Farmers, Yoplait, Daily Juice, Farmers Union, ZOOPER DOOPER, Big M, Dare, Pura, Masters, The Juice Brothers, Iced Coffee, Master M, COMPLETE DAIRY +, Betta MILK, Mildura, Simply Nuts, Berri, and Bega Peanut Butter brand names. The company sells its products through grocery, route trade, foodservice, petrol and convenience, industrial, and food manufacturers. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bega, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.8% to 20.9% during 2024–26; it earns 3.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09973620909749699],[2018,0.0771659266735496],[2019,0.04588291951063653],[2020,0.028335383060774485],[2021,0.038345961690909425],[2022,0.03860534663514332],[2023,0.005379181206911226],[2024,0.027366562542441936],[2025,-0.016183328613235154],[2026,0.06486988302640907]]; median 0.03847565416302637. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 64.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2017: growth capex 1892000; upkeep 24676000; owner earnings 138748000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.013636232594343703.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 26998000; owner earnings 32559000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2019: growth capex 1927000; upkeep 40373000; owner earnings 4444400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.43357933579335795.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2020: growth capex 12081000; upkeep 44756000; owner earnings 19014400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6353605688320431.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 32200000; owner earnings 91880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 71800000; owner earnings 33240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 74600000; owner earnings 5560000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); FY2026: growth capex 11600000; upkeep 93600000; owner earnings 17960000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6458797327394209.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); Incremental return on capital 1.751873532555039, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,15260000],[2018,19431000],[2019,19127000],[2020,19455000],[2021,23300000],[2022,28700000],[2023,26800000],[2024,19400000],[2025,28400000],[2026,37300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BGA.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.498 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 45% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 11.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:46.474Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.6571851223012648. Price 6.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.18893726644625408 → FY2026 0.05756984109634005. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.85 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 4.87 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 5.05 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 5.73 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 6.23 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 5.90 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 6.76 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 6.78 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 6.72 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 7.23 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 7.58 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 6.93 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 6.66 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 6.99 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 7.13 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 7.29 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 7.19 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 7.70 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 6.70 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 5.87 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 4.85 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 4.99 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 4.68 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 4.49 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 4.98 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 4.64 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 4.70 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 4.36 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 3.93 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 4.46 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 3.52 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 4.25 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 4.31 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 3.98 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.76 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 5.25 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.99 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.92 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.47 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 5.11 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 6.13 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 6.35 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 6.39 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 5.98 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 5.89 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 5.16 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 5.38 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.42 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 5.49 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 4.70 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 4.81 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 5.05 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 4.86 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.82 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 3.48 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 4.00 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.46 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 3.21 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 3.50 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 3.78 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.60 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 2.85 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.25 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.01 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 2.52 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 2.78 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.54 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.75 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 4.21 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 4.18 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 4.14 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 4.46 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 4.25 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 4.47 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 5.26 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 5.28 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 5.77 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 5.81 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 5.24 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 5.65 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 5.45 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 5.46 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 5.21 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 5.19 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 5.31 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 6.00 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 6.11 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 5.97 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 5.50 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 5.52 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 5.88 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 6.09 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 6.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 4.31 per share, central AUD 4.56 per share, high AUD 4.90 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 1.78 per share, central AUD 2.03 per share, high AUD 2.35 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 1.72 per share, central AUD 1.95 per share, high AUD 2.27 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 1.74 per share, central AUD 1.98 per share, high AUD 2.30 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 2.09 per share, central AUD 2.35 per share, high AUD 2.71 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 1.48 per share, central AUD 1.83 per share, high AUD 2.13 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 1.34 per share, central AUD 1.52 per share, high AUD 1.77 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 1.38 per share, central AUD 1.57 per share, high AUD 1.82 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 0.36 per share, central AUD 0.39 per share, high AUD 0.43 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 0.39 per share, central AUD 0.42 per share, high AUD 0.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.