# BHP Group (BHP.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BHP.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:33.292Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 58.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 39.07 per share, central AUD 53.27 per share, high AUD 61.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 53.27 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:33.292Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.4% at the stated quote. About 9.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.35×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.37×

- FY2020: 0.35×

- FY2021: 0.45×

- FY2022: 0.51×

- FY2023: 0.43×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.38×

- FY2026: 0.43×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 76.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 75.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.6%

- FY2018: 16.0%

- FY2019: 18.7%

- FY2020: 14.9%

- FY2021: 29.4%

- FY2022: 51.7%

- FY2023: 28.0%

- FY2024: 22.4%

- FY2025: 22.1%

- FY2026: 29.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $63B

- Net income, five-year total: $71B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 81.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 0.60×

- FY2026: 0.95×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.0% vs 22.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.70 to 1.77 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $133B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$6.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.4%

- Per-share value change: $1.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.70

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.77

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.71

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $108B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 22.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.10

- FY2018: $0.70

- FY2019: $1.64

- FY2020: $1.57

- FY2021: $2.23

- FY2022: $6.09

- FY2023: $2.54

- FY2024: $1.56

- FY2025: $1.77

- FY2026: $1.93

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.94×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.21×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.3%

- FY2018: -13.2%

- FY2019: -9.5%

- FY2020: -7.3%

- FY2021: -14.6%

- FY2022: -1.3%

- FY2023: -5.7%

- FY2024: -12.5%

- FY2025: -8.9%

- FY2026: -9.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.2% a year for ten years · "BHP goes all in on copper as record prices fuel profits" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +14.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.661Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-17: BHP delays Jansen potash project as costs surge; logs record copper output ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bhp-fourth-quarter-iron-ore-230912969.html))

- 2025-09-30: China Bans All BHP Iron Ore Cargoes as Pricing Dispute Grows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-bans-bhp-iron-ore-081059192.html))

- 2026-06-19: BHP Shares Sink 5.6% After $2.3 Billion Jansen Write-Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bhp-shares-sink-5-6-175337487.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +14.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-18.

- FY2017: $36B 

- FY2018: $43B 

- FY2019: $44B 

- FY2020: $39B 

- FY2021: $57B 

- FY2022: $65B 

- FY2023: $54B 

- FY2024: $56B 

- FY2025: $51B 

- FY2026: $59B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 75.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-18.

- FY2017: 68.5% 

- FY2018: 84.8% 

- FY2019: 46.0% 

- FY2020: 69.3% 

- FY2021: 77.6% 

- FY2022: 77.1% 

- FY2023: 79.7% 

- FY2024: 82.3% 

- FY2025: 71.7% 

- FY2026: 75.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 58.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-18); FY2026: revenue 58760000000; grossProfit 44409000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 71.7% to 82.3% during 2024–26; it earns 22.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 82.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 71.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 75.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11608364748559641],[2018,0.16046360886474473],[2019,0.18712384104781735],[2020,0.14887225665282353],[2021,0.29412364552113074],[2022,0.5169159582671491],[2023,0.2803419274352178],[2024,0.22350640183525813],[2025,0.22079195825552783],[2026,0.29754523587276516]]; median 0.22214918004539297. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 39.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 81.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4252000000; owner earnings 7822000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4979000000; owner earnings 5014000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2019: growth capex 1294000000; upkeep 5829000000; owner earnings 8163000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1585201519049369.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 7640000000; owner earnings 4294400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2021: growth capex 720000000; upkeep 5084000000; owner earnings 10524800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06840985101854667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2022: growth capex 428000000; upkeep 5683000000; owner earnings 30384800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014085990363602854.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 7083000000; owner earnings 10552390547.333147. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2024: growth capex 2925553527.7066193; upkeep 5890446472.293381; owner earnings 6894640746.620058. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.42432283787096603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 9398000000; owner earnings 5418360728.708607. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-18); FY2026: growth capex 3648000000; upkeep 6201000000; owner earnings 9305191493.935207. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3920392183629576.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); Incremental return on capital 0.8149955805988288, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,2921000000],[2018,5220000000],[2019,11395000000],[2020,6876000000],[2021,7901000000],[2022,17851000000],[2023,13268000000],[2024,7675000000],[2025,6403000000],[2026,6756000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BHP.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.036000000000000004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08986969506631814. Price 58; FX 1.4454626926079037; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -1.33452023988006 → FY2026 1.8284911562065647. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 20.54 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 21.73 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 22.31 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 23.72 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 22.26 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 21.41 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 21.12 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 21.28 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 20.73 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 23.02 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 24.38 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 22.95 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 23.63 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 24.31 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 26.33 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 26.89 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 27.16 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 25.12 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 27.56 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 29.20 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 30.19 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 31.04 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 29.57 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 30.83 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 28.68 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 27.33 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 30.48 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 31.01 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 33.15 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 34.27 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 33.30 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 33.62 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 36.65 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 36.29 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 32.31 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 32.70 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 32.01 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 34.04 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 34.65 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 35.08 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 29.92 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 25.80 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 28.80 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 30.84 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 31.89 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 32.72 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 33.76 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 31.70 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 30.08 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 33.90 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 37.78 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 38.79 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 43.75 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 40.34 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 42.47 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 42.61 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 43.25 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 47.63 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 40.61 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 33.49 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 32.57 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 35.06 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 36.95 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 41.27 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 41.55 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 46.08 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 42.75 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 44.61 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 41.25 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 38.68 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 40.60 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 38.52 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 37.36 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 45.52 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 45.63 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 49.38 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 45.20 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 47.23 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 44.40 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 42.02 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 44.99 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 46.01 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 44.85 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 44.25 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 44.50 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 46.30 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 50.41 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 47.27 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 43.93 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 44.27 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 43.03 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 44.51 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 42.68 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 42.30 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 40.77 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 45.96 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 42.64 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 40.57 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 39.55 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 39.95 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 39.04 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 38.20 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 38.19 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 38.25 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 36.75 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 39.25 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 43.19 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 42.53 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 43.45 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 41.67 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 45.49 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 50.57 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 58.41 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 50.39 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 53.72 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 62.31 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 59.40 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 60.31 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 66.23 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 60.82 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 61.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2018: low AUD 19.03 per share, central AUD 21.08 per share, high AUD 23.82 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 20.25 per share, central AUD 22.46 per share, high AUD 25.40 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 17.72 per share, central AUD 19.67 per share, high AUD 22.25 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 36.70 per share, central AUD 41.21 per share, high AUD 47.21 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 41.99 per share, central AUD 47.15 per share, high AUD 54.01 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 34.27 per share, central AUD 39.05 per share, high AUD 44.91 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 34.94 per share, central AUD 39.38 per share, high AUD 45.30 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 32.00 per share, central AUD 36.06 per share, high AUD 41.47 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 39.02 per share, central AUD 53.21 per share, high AUD 61.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811809/000119312526354647/bhp-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.