# Biogen (BIIB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BIIB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:56.391Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $235.35 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $151.33 per share, central $171.19 per share, high $197.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value $171.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:56.391Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.0% at the stated quote. About 8.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.44×

- FY2018: 0.44×

- FY2019: 0.49×

- FY2020: 0.34×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 11.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 67.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 34.0%

- FY2018: 45.9%

- FY2019: 62.1%

- FY2020: 36.3%

- FY2021: 30.3%

- FY2022: 25.4%

- FY2023: 12.6%

- FY2024: 14.7%

- FY2025: 11.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 6.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -359.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 19.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 40.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.12×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.16×

- FY2024: 1.19×

- FY2025: 1.48×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 38.2% vs 12.6%

- Per-share earnings: 15.34 to 8.79 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: -$35B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.7%

- Per-share value change: -$6.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $15.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.79

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.57

- Average buyback yield: 6.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $29B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 38.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $16.92

- FY2017: $11.92

- FY2018: $21.58

- FY2019: $31.42

- FY2020: $24.80

- FY2021: $10.40

- FY2022: $20.87

- FY2023: $7.97

- FY2024: $11.19

- FY2025: $8.79

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 13.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.70×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.86×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.6%

- FY2017: -8.5%

- FY2018: -6.9%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -0.9%

- FY2021: -8.7%

- FY2022: 6.8%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Nov 2022 · "MS Franchise Revenue Decline: 11% year-over-year, primarily due to competition." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +1.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:24.009Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: BIIB Q1 Earnings Call: New Product Growth Outpaces Declining MS Franchise Amid Lowered Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biib-q1-earnings-call-product-141817081.html))

- 2025-10-31: Biogen (BIIB): One-Time $471M Loss Raises Fresh Doubts Over Rebounding Profit Narrative ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biogen-biib-one-time-471m-111637587.html))

- 2026-02-06: Biogen forecasts annual profit above estimates as Leqembi sales pick up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biogen-forecasts-annual-profit-above-111030896.html))

- 2026-05-14: Biogen stock jumps 10% on positive phase 2 diranersen data for Alzheimer’s ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/biogen-stock-jumps-10-positive-114027932.html))

- 2026-07-14: Biogen drops after additional mid-stage trial data for Ionis-partnered Alzheimer’s drug ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4613620-biogen-updates-data-ionis-partnered-alzheimers-drug?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-21: What Biogen (BIIB)'s Higher Earnings Guidance and Late-Stage Pipeline Progress Means For Shareholders ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/biogen-biib-higher-earnings-guidance-131337483.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: $12B 

- FY2018: $13B 

- FY2019: $14B 

- FY2020: $13B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $10B 

- FY2023: $9.8B 

- FY2024: $9.7B 

- FY2025: $9.8B 

- FY2026: $9.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 67.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: 86.7% 

- FY2018: 86.5% 

- FY2019: 86.4% 

- FY2020: 86.6% 

- FY2021: 80.8% 

- FY2022: 77.6% 

- FY2023: 74.2% 

- FY2024: 76.1% 

- FY2025: 70.5% 

- FY2026: 67.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are USD 9.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 9810600000; grossProfit 6913600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BIIB.US: Biogen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers therapies in the United States, Europe, Germany, Asia, and internationally. The company provides TECFIDERA, VUMERITY, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, and TYSABRI for multiple sclerosis (MS); SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy; SKYCLARYS to treat Friedreich's Ataxia; QALSODY for treating amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; FUMADERM to treat plaque psoriasis; BENEPALI, an etanercept biosimilar referencing ENBREL; IMRALDI, an adalimumab biosimilar referencing HUMIRA; FLIXABI, an infliximab biosimilar referencing REMICADE. It offers LEQEMBI for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; ZURZUVAE for the treatment of postpartum depression; RITUXAN to treat non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), rheumatoid arthritis, two forms of ANCA-associated vasculitis, and pemphigus vulgaris; RITUXAN HYCELA for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and CLL; GAZYVA to treat CLL and follicular lymphoma; OCREVUS for relapsing MS and primary progressive MS; LUNSUMIO to treat relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma; glofitamab for aRelapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; and other anti-CD20 therapies. Biogen Inc. has collaboration and license agreements with Merz Therapeutics; Alkermes Pharma Ireland Limited; Denali Therapeutics Inc.; UCB; Eisai Co., Ltd.; Genentech, Inc.; Neurimmune SubOne AG; Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Samsung Bioepis; and Sage Therapeutics, Inc., as well as collaborations with Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. for the development and commercialization of zorevunersen, a disease modifying medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome; Dayra Therapeutics, Inc. to develop oral macrocyclic peptides; Vanqua Bio, Inc. for developing Vanqua's preclinical oral C5aR1 antagonist compound; City Therapeutics, Inc. to develop select novel RNAi therapies; and ALTEOGEN Inc. to develop subcutaneous (SC) formulations of biologics utilizing ALT-B4. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 70.5% to 76.1% during 2023–25; it earns 27.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 74.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 70.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3396813138472066],[2018,0.45887749093311525],[2019,0.6210025233648729],[2020,0.36341958758075504],[2021,0.30316066372111483],[2022,0.25404949987564446],[2023,0.12633963328150258],[2024,0.14715053094514813],[2025,0.11630222856367525],[2026,0.06554762581655608]]; median 0.2786050817983796. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 616100000; owner earnings 3723900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2017: growth capex 145800000; upkeep 721600000; owner earnings 2539100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05742192115316451.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2018: growth capex 120100000; upkeep 650500000; owner earnings 4430700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.027106326314126437.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2019: growth capex 49800000; upkeep 464700000; owner earnings 5888500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.008457162265432623.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 551800000; owner earnings 3906000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 294900000; owner earnings 1748900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 240300000; owner earnings 3325000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 311400000; owner earnings 1344500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 359800000; owner earnings 1945600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 153800000; owner earnings 1919489000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,302700000],[2018,36400000],[2019,0],[2020,4600000],[2021,700000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BIIB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.188 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are substantially dependent on revenue from our products." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); We are substantially dependent on revenue from our products.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05916918575695884. Price 235.35; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 15.341695501730104 → FY2025 13.048871515975527. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $280.18 per share

- 2016-11: $294.07 per share

- 2016-12: $283.58 per share

- 2017-01: $277.24 per share

- 2017-02: $288.60 per share

- 2017-03: $273.42 per share

- 2017-04: $271.21 per share

- 2017-05: $247.77 per share

- 2017-06: $271.36 per share

- 2017-07: $289.59 per share

- 2017-08: $316.56 per share

- 2017-09: $313.12 per share

- 2017-10: $311.66 per share

- 2017-11: $322.17 per share

- 2017-12: $318.57 per share

- 2018-01: $347.81 per share

- 2018-02: $288.99 per share

- 2018-03: $273.82 per share

- 2018-04: $273.60 per share

- 2018-05: $293.96 per share

- 2018-06: $290.24 per share

- 2018-07: $334.37 per share

- 2018-08: $353.49 per share

- 2018-09: $353.31 per share

- 2018-10: $304.27 per share

- 2018-11: $333.72 per share

- 2018-12: $300.92 per share

- 2019-01: $333.78 per share

- 2019-02: $328.01 per share

- 2019-03: $236.38 per share

- 2019-04: $229.24 per share

- 2019-05: $219.29 per share

- 2019-06: $233.87 per share

- 2019-07: $237.82 per share

- 2019-08: $219.75 per share

- 2019-09: $232.82 per share

- 2019-10: $298.71 per share

- 2019-11: $299.81 per share

- 2019-12: $296.73 per share

- 2020-01: $268.85 per share

- 2020-02: $308.39 per share

- 2020-03: $316.38 per share

- 2020-04: $296.83 per share

- 2020-05: $307.09 per share

- 2020-06: $267.55 per share

- 2020-07: $274.69 per share

- 2020-08: $287.64 per share

- 2020-09: $283.68 per share

- 2020-10: $252.07 per share

- 2020-11: $240.17 per share

- 2020-12: $244.86 per share

- 2021-01: $282.61 per share

- 2021-02: $272.88 per share

- 2021-03: $279.75 per share

- 2021-04: $267.33 per share

- 2021-05: $267.48 per share

- 2021-06: $346.27 per share

- 2021-07: $326.73 per share

- 2021-08: $338.91 per share

- 2021-09: $282.99 per share

- 2021-10: $266.68 per share

- 2021-11: $235.74 per share

- 2021-12: $239.92 per share

- 2022-01: $226.00 per share

- 2022-02: $211.01 per share

- 2022-03: $210.60 per share

- 2022-04: $207.44 per share

- 2022-05: $200.00 per share

- 2022-06: $203.94 per share

- 2022-07: $215.06 per share

- 2022-08: $195.38 per share

- 2022-09: $267.00 per share

- 2022-10: $283.44 per share

- 2022-11: $305.17 per share

- 2022-12: $276.92 per share

- 2023-01: $290.90 per share

- 2023-02: $269.86 per share

- 2023-03: $278.03 per share

- 2023-04: $304.23 per share

- 2023-05: $296.41 per share

- 2023-06: $284.85 per share

- 2023-07: $270.19 per share

- 2023-08: $267.36 per share

- 2023-09: $257.01 per share

- 2023-10: $237.54 per share

- 2023-11: $234.08 per share

- 2023-12: $258.77 per share

- 2024-01: $246.66 per share

- 2024-02: $216.99 per share

- 2024-03: $215.63 per share

- 2024-04: $214.82 per share

- 2024-05: $224.94 per share

- 2024-06: $231.82 per share

- 2024-07: $213.20 per share

- 2024-08: $204.76 per share

- 2024-09: $193.84 per share

- 2024-10: $174.00 per share

- 2024-11: $160.63 per share

- 2024-12: $152.92 per share

- 2025-01: $143.93 per share

- 2025-02: $140.50 per share

- 2025-03: $136.84 per share

- 2025-04: $121.08 per share

- 2025-05: $129.79 per share

- 2025-06: $125.59 per share

- 2025-07: $128.00 per share

- 2025-08: $132.22 per share

- 2025-09: $140.08 per share

- 2025-10: $154.27 per share

- 2025-11: $182.09 per share

- 2025-12: $175.99 per share

- 2026-01: $179.89 per share

- 2026-02: $191.82 per share

- 2026-03: $183.33 per share

- 2026-04: $189.28 per share

- 2026-05: $196.00 per share

- 2026-06: $216.06 per share

- 2026-07: $202.95 per share

- 2026-08: $216.65 per share

- 2026-09: $225.88 per share

- 2026-10: $228.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $252.71 per share, central $351.86 per share, high $409.60 per share

- FY2017: low $270.98 per share, central $380.17 per share, high $443.76 per share

- FY2018: low $309.32 per share, central $435.05 per share, high $508.27 per share

- FY2019: low $365.88 per share, central $513.09 per share, high $598.81 per share

- FY2020: low $383.09 per share, central $541.04 per share, high $633.01 per share

- FY2021: low $257.06 per share, central $289.20 per share, high $331.98 per share

- FY2022: low $281.04 per share, central $315.37 per share, high $361.05 per share

- FY2023: low $220.37 per share, central $249.95 per share, high $289.32 per share

- FY2024: low $160.71 per share, central $180.81 per share, high $207.56 per share

- FY2025: low $167.23 per share, central $186.90 per share, high $213.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:35.297Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/875045/000087504526000013/biib-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.