# The Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BKG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 3,328.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 5,730.16 per share, central GBX 6,372.14 per share, high GBX 7,226.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 6,372.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 20.0% at the stated quote. About 20.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.28×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 32.7%

- FY2018: 35.3%

- FY2019: 31.6%

- FY2020: 19.3%

- FY2021: 20.0%

- FY2022: 15.3%

- FY2023: 13.1%

- FY2024: 11.3%

- FY2025: 11.3%

- FY2026: 9.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -22.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 68.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 166.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.01×

- FY2026: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.7% vs 11.3%

- Per-share earnings: 4.97 to 3.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.4%

- Per-share value change: GBP -1.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 4.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 3.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 3.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 4.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 4.97

- FY2018: GBP 6.09

- FY2019: GBP 5.17

- FY2020: GBP 3.46

- FY2021: GBP 3.78

- FY2022: GBP 4.31

- FY2023: GBP 4.33

- FY2024: GBP 3.78

- FY2025: GBP 3.92

- FY2026: GBP 3.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.43×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: -0.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.96×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.0%

- FY2018: 1.0%

- FY2019: 0.3%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 1.8%

- FY2022: 9.3%

- FY2023: 1.9%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 2.8%

- FY2026: 0.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since May 2024 · "Berkeley Shares Hit Nine-Year Low On Land Purchase Freeze, Gloomy Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales -4.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.804Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 9.9% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-01: Berkeley Shares Hit Nine-Year Low On Land Purchase Freeze, Gloomy Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e75b41f9-b081-3fb2-afa8-ee4ebb219d5d/berkeley-shares-hit-nine-year.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2021: GBP 2.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 2.3B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.6B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.5B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 34.5% 

- FY2018: 34.6% 

- FY2019: 31.3% 

- FY2020: 33.2% 

- FY2021: 28.8% 

- FY2022: 28.3% 

- FY2023: 27.3% 

- FY2024: 26.2% 

- FY2025: 26.6% 

- FY2026: 25.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are GBP 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: revenue 2383300000; grossProfit 597200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BKG.LSE: The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led mixed-use development and ancillary activities; commercial and land selling activities. In addition, it also provides affordable housing in partnership with the public sector. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.1% to 26.6% during 2024–26; it earns 17.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3273762058285217],[2018,0.3525858079226025],[2019,0.31550732648169555],[2020,0.19322355739010183],[2021,0.1995031459018938],[2022,0.15306646279706562],[2023,0.13052601863395266],[2024,0.11348511841204069],[2025,0.11251460215684955],[2026,0.096533492048087]]; median 0.17314501009358374. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 28% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.28848424302969755],[2022,0.2831345826235094],[2023,0.2732334718845581]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back GBP 233 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2800000; owner earnings 645100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2018: growth capex 1259137.2133227913; upkeep 4840862.786677209; owner earnings 759959137.2133228. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001656848574700863.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2019: growth capex 1268019.9724671505; upkeep 18231980.02753285; owner earnings 611568019.9724672. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0020733915624368926.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 9700000; owner earnings 404600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2400000; owner earnings 425560000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1300000; owner earnings 485520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2000000; owner earnings 468280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1400000; owner earnings 400120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1000000; owner earnings 383940000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 320800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,254600000],[2018,146700000],[2019,53000000],[2020,149800000],[2021,145500000],[2022,451500000],[2023,98500000],[2024,98100000],[2025,251800000],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 233000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BKG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.579 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 9.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:13.145Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.15141558766251612. Price 3328; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 2.9414259225680413 → FY2026 3.3873607518082465. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,554.41 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,682.19 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 3,040.61 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 3,031.94 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 3,187.87 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 3,472.66 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 3,527.88 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 3,525.72 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 3,494.32 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 3,785.60 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 4,050.89 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 4,024.91 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 4,050.89 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 4,132.11 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 4,544.67 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 4,294.53 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 4,173.25 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 4,102.87 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 4,409.31 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 4,597.73 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 4,098.54 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 4,042.23 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 3,944.78 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,983.76 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 3,791.01 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 3,493.23 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 3,767.19 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 4,063.89 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 4,277.21 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 3,994.59 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 4,067.14 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 3,785.60 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 4,040.07 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 4,199.24 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 4,241.47 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 4,525.18 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 4,765.57 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 4,965.89 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 5,261.51 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 5,674.07 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 5,147.81 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 3,914.46 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 4,529.51 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 4,434.22 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 4,510.02 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 4,822.96 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 4,936.65 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 4,578.24 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 4,393.07 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 5,007.04 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 5,134.81 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 4,536.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 4,388.74 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 4,806.71 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 5,010.29 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 5,066.59 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 4,975.64 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 5,246.35 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 5,226.85 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 4,362.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 4,355.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 4,284.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 4,775.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 4,198.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 3,896.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 3,740.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 4,080.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 4,200.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 3,724.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 4,238.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 3,655.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 3,297.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 3,471.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,811.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 3,773.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 4,145.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 4,196.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 4,197.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 4,447.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 3,926.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 3,923.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 4,346.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 4,061.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 4,107.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 4,036.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 4,636.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 4,688.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 4,801.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 4,643.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 4,758.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 4,714.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 5,240.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 4,588.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 5,080.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 4,984.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 4,720.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 4,426.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 4,148.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,900.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 3,882.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,600.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 3,584.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 4,170.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 4,220.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 3,860.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 3,650.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 3,600.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 3,836.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 4,028.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 3,756.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 3,904.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 4,120.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 4,324.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 3,436.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 3,206.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 3,444.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 3,498.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 3,500.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 3,570.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 3,348.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 3,328.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 6,016.13 per share, central GBX 8,418.81 per share, high GBX 9,817.90 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 7,328.99 per share, central GBX 10,350.21 per share, high GBX 12,035.25 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 8,326.38 per share, central GBX 11,686.29 per share, high GBX 13,560.24 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 5,240.32 per share, central GBX 5,784.31 per share, high GBX 6,508.97 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 5,963.16 per share, central GBX 6,624.04 per share, high GBX 7,504.40 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 5,525.99 per share, central GBX 6,179.33 per share, high GBX 7,049.07 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 6,851.65 per share, central GBX 8,388.74 per share, high GBX 9,636.09 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 6,186.68 per share, central GBX 7,086.24 per share, high GBX 8,066.93 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 6,115.03 per share, central GBX 6,821.49 per share, high GBX 7,761.93 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 5,496.32 per share, central GBX 6,112.11 per share, high GBX 6,931.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:02.672Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

The Berkeley Group Holdings

BKG · LSE

FTSE 250 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 3,328.00
Buy up to: GBX 6,372.14
Expected / yr: 20.0% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 14.7% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 22.2%
Worst year: 18.7%
Latest · 2026: 18.7%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 17.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 11.3% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 17.3%
Worst year: 9.7%
Latest · 2026: 9.7%

New investment earned -22.3% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 68.9% of sales (limit 10%) to 166.8% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.01×
Annual median: 1.01×
Latest · 2026: 1.01×

Per-share value fell from 4.97 to 3.78, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 4.11
Worst year: GBP 3.36
Latest · 2026: GBP 3.36

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.2% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 1.8%
Worst year: 9.3%
Latest · 2026: 0.2%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 23.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 3.71 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 2554.41; 2016-11 · Price GBX 2682.19; 2016-12 · Price GBX 3040.61; 2017-01 · Price GBX 3031.94 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-02 · Price GBX 3187.87 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-03 · Price GBX 3472.66 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-04 · Price GBX 3527.88 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-05 · Price GBX 3525.72 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-06 · Price GBX 3494.32 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-07 · Price GBX 3785.60 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-08 · Price GBX 4050.89 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-09 · Price GBX 4024.91 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-10 · Price GBX 4050.89 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-11 · Price GBX 4132.11 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2017-12 · Price GBX 4544.67 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2018-01 · Price GBX 4294.53 · Value 8418.81 · Buy at or below 8418.81; 2018-02 · Price GBX 4173.25 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-03 · Price GBX 4102.87 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-04 · Price GBX 4409.31 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-05 · Price GBX 4597.73 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-06 · Price GBX 4098.54 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-07 · Price GBX 4042.23 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-08 · Price GBX 3944.78 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-09 · Price GBX 3983.76 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-10 · Price GBX 3791.01 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-11 · Price GBX 3493.23 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2018-12 · Price GBX 3767.19 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2019-01 · Price GBX 4063.89 · Value 10350.21 · Buy at or below 10350.21; 2019-02 · Price GBX 4277.21 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-03 · Price GBX 3994.59 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-04 · Price GBX 4067.14 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-05 · Price GBX 3785.60 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-06 · Price GBX 4040.07 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-07 · Price GBX 4199.24 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-08 · Price GBX 4241.47 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-09 · Price GBX 4525.18 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-10 · Price GBX 4765.57 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-11 · Price GBX 4965.89 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2019-12 · Price GBX 5261.51 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2020-01 · Price GBX 5674.07 · Value 11686.29 · Buy at or below 11686.29; 2020-02 · Price GBX 5147.81 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-03 · Price GBX 3914.46 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-04 · Price GBX 4529.51 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-05 · Price GBX 4434.22 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-06 · Price GBX 4510.02 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-07 · Price GBX 4822.96 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-08 · Price GBX 4936.65 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-09 · Price GBX 4578.24 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-10 · Price GBX 4393.07 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-11 · Price GBX 5007.04 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2020-12 · Price GBX 5134.81 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2021-01 · Price GBX 4536.00 · Value 5784.31 · Buy at or below 5784.31; 2021-02 · Price GBX 4388.74 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-03 · Price GBX 4806.71 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-04 · Price GBX 5010.29 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-05 · Price GBX 5066.59 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-06 · Price GBX 4975.64 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-07 · Price GBX 5246.35 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-08 · Price GBX 5226.85 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-09 · Price GBX 4362.00 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-10 · Price GBX 4355.00 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-11 · Price GBX 4284.00 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2021-12 · Price GBX 4775.00 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2022-01 · Price GBX 4198.00 · Value 6624.04 · Buy at or below 6624.04; 2022-02 · Price GBX 3896.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-03 · Price GBX 3740.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-04 · Price GBX 4080.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-05 · Price GBX 4200.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-06 · Price GBX 3724.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-07 · Price GBX 4238.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-08 · Price GBX 3655.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-09 · Price GBX 3297.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-10 · Price GBX 3471.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-11 · Price GBX 3811.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2022-12 · Price GBX 3773.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2023-01 · Price GBX 4145.00 · Value 6179.33 · Buy at or below 6179.33; 2023-02 · Price GBX 4196.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-03 · Price GBX 4197.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-04 · Price GBX 4447.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-05 · Price GBX 3926.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-06 · Price GBX 3923.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-07 · Price GBX 4346.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-08 · Price GBX 4061.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-09 · Price GBX 4107.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-10 · Price GBX 4036.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-11 · Price GBX 4636.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2023-12 · Price GBX 4688.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2024-01 · Price GBX 4801.00 · Value 8388.74 · Buy at or below 8388.74; 2024-02 · Price GBX 4643.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-03 · Price GBX 4758.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-04 · Price GBX 4714.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-05 · Price GBX 5240.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-06 · Price GBX 4588.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-07 · Price GBX 5080.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-08 · Price GBX 4984.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-09 · Price GBX 4720.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-10 · Price GBX 4426.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-11 · Price GBX 4148.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2024-12 · Price GBX 3900.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2025-01 · Price GBX 3882.00 · Value 7086.24 · Buy at or below 7086.24; 2025-02 · Price GBX 3600.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-03 · Price GBX 3584.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-04 · Price GBX 4170.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-05 · Price GBX 4220.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-06 · Price GBX 3860.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-07 · Price GBX 3650.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-08 · Price GBX 3600.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-09 · Price GBX 3836.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-10 · Price GBX 4028.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-11 · Price GBX 3756.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2025-12 · Price GBX 3904.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2026-01 · Price GBX 4120.00 · Value 6821.49 · Buy at or below 6821.49; 2026-02 · Price GBX 4324.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-03 · Price GBX 3436.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-04 · Price GBX 3206.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-05 · Price GBX 3444.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-06 · Price GBX 3498.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-07 · Price GBX 3500.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-08 · Price GBX 3570.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-09 · Price GBX 3348.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3328.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11; 2026-10 · Price GBX 3328.00 · Value 6112.11 · Buy at or below 6112.11

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 5,730.16 – GBX 7,226.75
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 6,372.14
Discount to value	1 − 3328.00 / 6372.14 = 47.8%
Return / year	About 20.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 425.99/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 1074.01/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.4B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 321M

Owner earnings

Operating margin18.7%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 359M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares95M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026