# BlackRock (BLK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BLK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:59.099Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,120.78 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $1,143.30 per share, central $1,428.16 per share, high $1,643.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value $1,428.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:59.099Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.2% at the stated quote. About 12.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.38×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.35×

- FY2021: 0.62×

- FY2022: 0.58×

- FY2023: 0.57×

- FY2024: 0.37×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.31×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 22.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 30.1%

- FY2018: 23.8%

- FY2019: 22.5%

- FY2020: 23.0%

- FY2021: 25.3%

- FY2022: 22.9%

- FY2023: 21.7%

- FY2024: 28.1%

- FY2025: 25.7%

- LTM to Mar 2026: 22.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $30B

- Net income, five-year total: $29B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -7.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -61.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 30.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.14×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.8% vs 25.7%

- Per-share earnings: 19.79 to 36.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Market cap gain: $111B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.0%

- Per-share value change: $16.72

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $19.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $36.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.88

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $33B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $50B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $19.04

- FY2017: $30.12

- FY2018: $26.58

- FY2019: $28.43

- FY2020: $31.85

- FY2021: $38.22

- FY2022: $33.97

- FY2023: $36.51

- FY2024: $42.01

- FY2025: $34.51

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 33.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.71×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.5%

- FY2017: 0.5%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: 0.9%

- FY2020: 0.7%

- FY2021: 0.6%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: 1.1%

- FY2024: 1.0%

- FY2025: 1.0%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Jeffrey Ubben](https://gigainvestors.com/VA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.5% a year for ten years · sales +12.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:24.657Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-16: BlackRock Stock Wipes Out Gains on Heavy Outflow and Acquisition Charges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-stock-wipes-gains-heavy-125505205.html))

- 2026-01-31: BlackRock Private Credit Write Down Puts Valuations And Dividend Risks In Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-private-credit-write-down-200929197.html))

- 2026-03-06: BlackRock Stock Sinks After It Caps Withdrawals From Private Credit Fund ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/65603340-6597-3703-a672-f0316fe291ad/blackrock-stock-sinks-after.html))

- 2026-04-14: BlackRock shares gain as quarterly earnings, revenue top estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/blackrock-shares-gain-quarterly-earnings-104325976.html))

- 2026-07-15: BlackRock rises after Q2 earnings top estimates as AUM hits $15.3 trillion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/blackrock-rises-q2-earnings-top-104225407.html))

- 2026-09-29: Update: Market Chatter: BlackRock, Vanguard Face Fee Pressure as European Banks Launch Own ETFs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/market-chatter-blackrock-vanguard-face-145530735.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm; observed 2024-02-23.

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $15B 

- FY2020: $16B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $24B 

- FY2026: $27B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 46.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm; observed 2024-02-23.

- FY2017: 49.9% 

- FY2018: 50.7% 

- FY2019: 50.9% 

- FY2020: 51.0% 

- FY2021: 81.7% 

- FY2022: 78.5% 

- FY2023: 77.9% 

- FY2024: 49.4% 

- FY2025: 46.7% 

- FY2026: 46.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 24.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2025: revenue 24216000000; grossProfit 11310000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.7% to 77.9% during 2023–25; it earns 23.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm (filed 2024-02-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 77.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 49.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.30109077581220295],[2018,0.23802792541631188],[2019,0.22537636494416627],[2020,0.22977351717553374],[2021,0.2532163331610633],[2022,0.2289196691412037],[2023,0.21720497268266425],[2024,0.2806957493778846],[2025,0.25734548315158606],[2026,0.22539653884641372]]; median 0.23390072129592282. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 119000000; cash acquisitions 30000000; owner earnings 3316000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.009047044632086852.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 155000000; cash acquisitions 102000000; owner earnings 5037000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.02025014889815366.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 204000000; cash acquisitions 699000000; owner earnings 4321000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1617681092339736.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 254000000; cash acquisitions 1510000000; owner earnings 4518000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.33421868083222667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 194000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 5096000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 341000000; cash acquisitions 1106000000; owner earnings 5975000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18510460251046026.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 533000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 5063000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm (filed 2024-02-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 344000000; cash acquisitions 189000000; owner earnings 5585000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.03384064458370636.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 255000000; owner earnings 6643000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 375000000; owner earnings 6304000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,1545000000],[2017,1662000000],[2018,1968000000],[2019,2096000000],[2020,2260000000],[2021,2547000000],[2022,2990000000],[2023,3035000000],[2024,3101000000],[2025,3347000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 1951000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BLK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.916 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Poor investment performance could lead to the loss of clients" (SEC filing, Feb 2024)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm (filed 2024-02-23); Poor investment performance could lead to the loss of clients

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-02-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0061534221870316475. Price 1120.78; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 20.226153000311392 → FY2025 39.179614667495336. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $341.24 per share

- 2016-11: $370.79 per share

- 2016-12: $380.54 per share

- 2017-01: $373.98 per share

- 2017-02: $387.46 per share

- 2017-03: $383.51 per share

- 2017-04: $384.57 per share

- 2017-05: $409.24 per share

- 2017-06: $422.41 per share

- 2017-07: $426.53 per share

- 2017-08: $419.01 per share

- 2017-09: $447.09 per share

- 2017-10: $470.83 per share

- 2017-11: $501.19 per share

- 2017-12: $513.71 per share

- 2018-01: $561.80 per share

- 2018-02: $549.43 per share

- 2018-03: $541.72 per share

- 2018-04: $521.50 per share

- 2018-05: $534.23 per share

- 2018-06: $499.04 per share

- 2018-07: $502.76 per share

- 2018-08: $479.06 per share

- 2018-09: $471.33 per share

- 2018-10: $411.42 per share

- 2018-11: $428.01 per share

- 2018-12: $392.82 per share

- 2019-01: $415.08 per share

- 2019-02: $443.22 per share

- 2019-03: $427.37 per share

- 2019-04: $485.24 per share

- 2019-05: $415.56 per share

- 2019-06: $469.30 per share

- 2019-07: $467.68 per share

- 2019-08: $422.56 per share

- 2019-09: $445.64 per share

- 2019-10: $461.70 per share

- 2019-11: $494.91 per share

- 2019-12: $502.70 per share

- 2020-01: $527.35 per share

- 2020-02: $463.01 per share

- 2020-03: $439.97 per share

- 2020-04: $502.04 per share

- 2020-05: $528.64 per share

- 2020-06: $544.09 per share

- 2020-07: $575.01 per share

- 2020-08: $594.19 per share

- 2020-09: $563.55 per share

- 2020-10: $599.21 per share

- 2020-11: $698.35 per share

- 2020-12: $721.54 per share

- 2021-01: $701.26 per share

- 2021-02: $694.50 per share

- 2021-03: $753.96 per share

- 2021-04: $819.30 per share

- 2021-05: $877.04 per share

- 2021-06: $874.97 per share

- 2021-07: $867.17 per share

- 2021-08: $943.29 per share

- 2021-09: $838.66 per share

- 2021-10: $943.46 per share

- 2021-11: $904.61 per share

- 2021-12: $915.56 per share

- 2022-01: $822.94 per share

- 2022-02: $743.89 per share

- 2022-03: $764.17 per share

- 2022-04: $624.68 per share

- 2022-05: $669.08 per share

- 2022-06: $609.04 per share

- 2022-07: $669.18 per share

- 2022-08: $666.39 per share

- 2022-09: $550.28 per share

- 2022-10: $645.91 per share

- 2022-11: $716.00 per share

- 2022-12: $708.63 per share

- 2023-01: $759.21 per share

- 2023-02: $689.43 per share

- 2023-03: $669.12 per share

- 2023-04: $671.20 per share

- 2023-05: $657.55 per share

- 2023-06: $691.14 per share

- 2023-07: $738.85 per share

- 2023-08: $700.54 per share

- 2023-09: $646.49 per share

- 2023-10: $612.28 per share

- 2023-11: $751.23 per share

- 2023-12: $811.80 per share

- 2024-01: $774.31 per share

- 2024-02: $811.34 per share

- 2024-03: $833.70 per share

- 2024-04: $754.64 per share

- 2024-05: $772.03 per share

- 2024-06: $787.32 per share

- 2024-07: $876.50 per share

- 2024-08: $901.81 per share

- 2024-09: $949.51 per share

- 2024-10: $981.03 per share

- 2024-11: $1,022.80 per share

- 2024-12: $1,025.11 per share

- 2025-01: $1,075.50 per share

- 2025-02: $977.78 per share

- 2025-03: $946.48 per share

- 2025-04: $914.26 per share

- 2025-05: $979.89 per share

- 2025-06: $1,049.25 per share

- 2025-07: $1,106.01 per share

- 2025-08: $1,127.14 per share

- 2025-09: $1,165.87 per share

- 2025-10: $1,082.81 per share

- 2025-11: $1,047.30 per share

- 2025-12: $1,070.34 per share

- 2026-01: $1,118.94 per share

- 2026-02: $1,063.23 per share

- 2026-03: $961.71 per share

- 2026-04: $1,065.60 per share

- 2026-05: $1,046.88 per share

- 2026-06: $961.56 per share

- 2026-07: $1,090.39 per share

- 2026-08: $1,155.61 per share

- 2026-09: $1,058.29 per share

- 2026-10: $1,066.12 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $276.86 per share, central $310.12 per share, high $354.41 per share

- FY2017: low $319.05 per share, central $357.37 per share, high $408.37 per share

- FY2018: low $398.92 per share, central $550.35 per share, high $639.63 per share

- FY2019: low $410.86 per share, central $574.57 per share, high $669.90 per share

- FY2020: low $485.99 per share, central $656.80 per share, high $761.36 per share

- FY2021: low $326.25 per share, central $363.12 per share, high $412.21 per share

- FY2022: low $305.33 per share, central $339.72 per share, high $385.50 per share

- FY2023: low $434.50 per share, central $484.90 per share, high $552.00 per share

- FY2024: low $766.99 per share, central $859.85 per share, high $983.46 per share

- FY2025: low $932.49 per share, central $1,175.72 per share, high $1,359.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:38.351Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017024019271/blk-20231231.htm); period 2023-12-31, filed 2024-02-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.