# Bloomin Brands (BLMN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BLMN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:59.395Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $9.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.12 per share, central $19.48 per share, high $22.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value $19.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:59.395Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.1% at the stated quote. About 17.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.92×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: -0.06×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.4%

- FY2017: 16.9%

- FY2018: 18.6%

- FY2019: 7.8%

- FY2020: -6.7%

- FY2021: 15.1%

- FY2022: 10.8%

- FY2023: 12.3%

- FY2024: 5.2%

- FY2025: 6.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $521M

- Net income, five-year total: $442M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.55×

- FY2022: 1.33×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 1.35×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.9% vs 6.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.01 to 0.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: -$1.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$131M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -29.3%

- Per-share value change: -$0.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.21

- Average buyback yield: 7.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $663M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.37

- FY2017: $1.01

- FY2018: $1.14

- FY2019: $1.45

- FY2020: -$1.81

- FY2021: $2.00

- FY2022: $1.03

- FY2023: $2.56

- FY2024: -$1.49

- FY2025: $0.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 51.43×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.90×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.3%

- FY2017: -12.0%

- FY2018: -7.3%

- FY2019: -5.2%

- FY2020: -8.9%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -8.7%

- FY2023: -8.3%

- FY2024: -10.5%

- FY2025: -8.6%

## Holders

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 65% since Mar 2024 · "Outback Steakhouse Parent Bloomin Brands Q1 Earnings: Margin Contraction, High Debt, Weak Q2 Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:24.743Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Outback Steakhouse Parent Bloomin Brands Q1 Earnings: Margin Contraction, High Debt, Weak Q2 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/outback-steakhouse-parent-bloomin-brands-224320720.html))

- 2025-08-06: Bloomin' Brands beats Q2 earnings estimates, lowers full-year outlook ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/bloomin-brands-beats-q2-earnings-estimates-lowers-fullyear-outlook-93CH-4172610))

- 2026-08-05: Bloomin' Brands raises 2026 earnings outlook after Q2 beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bloomin-brands-raises-2026-earnings-130826378.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $4.3B 

- FY2017: $4.2B 

- FY2018: $4.1B 

- FY2019: $4.1B 

- FY2020: $3.2B 

- FY2021: $4.1B 

- FY2022: $4.0B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $4.0B 

- FY2025: $4.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: 16.3% 

- FY2017: 16.6% 

- FY2018: 16.2% 

- FY2019: 16.2% 

- FY2020: 10.6% 

- FY2021: 17.7% 

- FY2022: 16.8% 

- FY2023: 17.3% 

- FY2024: 70.9% 

- FY2025: 8.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 3955996000; grossProfit 351884000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); BLMN.US: Bloomin' Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, polished casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through U.S. and International Franchise segments. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill that offers authentic Italian cuisine; Bonefish Grill; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. Bloomin' Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in Tampa, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.9% to 70.9% during 2023–25; it earns 11.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 70.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12351477904978597],[2017,0.16853431236161848],[2018,0.18566432583192516],[2019,0.07807177366553666],[2020,-0.06678452350525735],[2021,0.15071920437618677],[2022,0.10780589667417478],[2023,0.12299235994212558],[2024,0.05193039669408276],[2025,0.060872837689150375]]; median 0.11539912830815019. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 17% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.17749482399145156],[2022,0.16833023632849037],[2023,0.17253848220797666]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 41.7% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 260589000; owner earnings 31936000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 208224000; owner earnings 100467000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 161926000; owner earnings 238815000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 87842000; owner earnings 8140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 122830000; owner earnings 334388000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 219691000; owner earnings 135087000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 84476706.15941295; upkeep 197752293.84058705; owner earnings 218899706.15941295. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.38591511903580666.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 2244000; upkeep 177680000; owner earnings 5380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4171003717472119.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,31379000],[2017,30988000],[2018,33311999],[2019,35734000],[2020,17480000],[2021,49736000],[2022,49736000],[2023,83742000],[2024,82574000],[2025,38266000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1161000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); BLMN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.4409999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.11926126458532843. Price 9.93; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8556993271489429 → FY2025 0.06306633687739575. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.30 per share

- 2016-11: $18.60 per share

- 2016-12: $18.03 per share

- 2017-01: $17.11 per share

- 2017-02: $17.09 per share

- 2017-03: $19.73 per share

- 2017-04: $21.69 per share

- 2017-05: $20.03 per share

- 2017-06: $21.23 per share

- 2017-07: $17.43 per share

- 2017-08: $17.01 per share

- 2017-09: $17.60 per share

- 2017-10: $17.78 per share

- 2017-11: $21.47 per share

- 2017-12: $21.34 per share

- 2018-01: $22.03 per share

- 2018-02: $23.09 per share

- 2018-03: $24.28 per share

- 2018-04: $23.66 per share

- 2018-05: $21.22 per share

- 2018-06: $20.10 per share

- 2018-07: $19.34 per share

- 2018-08: $19.30 per share

- 2018-09: $19.79 per share

- 2018-10: $19.95 per share

- 2018-11: $19.55 per share

- 2018-12: $17.89 per share

- 2019-01: $18.43 per share

- 2019-02: $20.68 per share

- 2019-03: $20.45 per share

- 2019-04: $19.99 per share

- 2019-05: $19.31 per share

- 2019-06: $18.91 per share

- 2019-07: $17.03 per share

- 2019-08: $18.04 per share

- 2019-09: $18.93 per share

- 2019-10: $19.81 per share

- 2019-11: $24.05 per share

- 2019-12: $22.07 per share

- 2020-01: $20.77 per share

- 2020-02: $17.99 per share

- 2020-03: $7.14 per share

- 2020-04: $12.05 per share

- 2020-05: $11.41 per share

- 2020-06: $10.66 per share

- 2020-07: $11.52 per share

- 2020-08: $14.34 per share

- 2020-09: $15.27 per share

- 2020-10: $13.98 per share

- 2020-11: $17.50 per share

- 2020-12: $19.42 per share

- 2021-01: $21.07 per share

- 2021-02: $24.84 per share

- 2021-03: $27.05 per share

- 2021-04: $31.60 per share

- 2021-05: $29.55 per share

- 2021-06: $27.14 per share

- 2021-07: $25.13 per share

- 2021-08: $26.79 per share

- 2021-09: $25.00 per share

- 2021-10: $21.62 per share

- 2021-11: $17.67 per share

- 2021-12: $20.98 per share

- 2022-01: $20.33 per share

- 2022-02: $24.61 per share

- 2022-03: $21.94 per share

- 2022-04: $21.99 per share

- 2022-05: $21.11 per share

- 2022-06: $16.62 per share

- 2022-07: $20.39 per share

- 2022-08: $20.22 per share

- 2022-09: $18.33 per share

- 2022-10: $24.01 per share

- 2022-11: $22.52 per share

- 2022-12: $20.12 per share

- 2023-01: $24.25 per share

- 2023-02: $26.10 per share

- 2023-03: $25.65 per share

- 2023-04: $24.77 per share

- 2023-05: $23.89 per share

- 2023-06: $26.89 per share

- 2023-07: $26.87 per share

- 2023-08: $28.06 per share

- 2023-09: $24.59 per share

- 2023-10: $23.34 per share

- 2023-11: $23.34 per share

- 2023-12: $28.15 per share

- 2024-01: $26.62 per share

- 2024-02: $27.18 per share

- 2024-03: $28.68 per share

- 2024-04: $25.79 per share

- 2024-05: $21.80 per share

- 2024-06: $19.23 per share

- 2024-07: $20.85 per share

- 2024-08: $17.50 per share

- 2024-09: $16.53 per share

- 2024-10: $16.59 per share

- 2024-11: $13.94 per share

- 2024-12: $12.21 per share

- 2025-01: $12.56 per share

- 2025-02: $9.38 per share

- 2025-03: $7.17 per share

- 2025-04: $8.02 per share

- 2025-05: $7.63 per share

- 2025-06: $8.61 per share

- 2025-07: $9.11 per share

- 2025-08: $7.35 per share

- 2025-09: $7.17 per share

- 2025-10: $6.83 per share

- 2025-11: $7.10 per share

- 2025-12: $6.17 per share

- 2026-01: $6.00 per share

- 2026-02: $6.12 per share

- 2026-03: $5.40 per share

- 2026-04: $6.10 per share

- 2026-05: $8.44 per share

- 2026-06: $9.14 per share

- 2026-07: $8.66 per share

- 2026-08: $10.30 per share

- 2026-09: $7.75 per share

- 2026-10: $9.93 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $8.71 per share, central $9.85 per share, high $11.38 per share

- FY2017: low $9.85 per share, central $11.16 per share, high $12.90 per share

- FY2018: low $9.83 per share, central $11.19 per share, high $12.99 per share

- FY2019: low $12.27 per share, central $13.96 per share, high $16.21 per share

- FY2020: low $3.20 per share, central $3.62 per share, high $4.17 per share

- FY2021: low $10.22 per share, central $11.63 per share, high $13.50 per share

- FY2022: low $15.03 per share, central $17.10 per share, high $19.85 per share

- FY2023: low $25.10 per share, central $28.52 per share, high $33.07 per share

- FY2024: low $16.94 per share, central $19.27 per share, high $22.38 per share

- FY2025: low $17.08 per share, central $19.43 per share, high $22.57 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1546417/000154641726000009/blmn-20251228.htm); period 2025-12-28, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.