# B&M European Value Retail (BME.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BME.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 279.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 286.38 per share, central GBX 322.77 per share, high GBX 371.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 322.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.2% at the stated quote. About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 36.4%

- FY2018: 27.0%

- FY2019: 10.6%

- FY2020: 13.0%

- FY2021: 30.7%

- FY2022: 25.6%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 21.4%

- FY2025: 19.2%

- FY2026: 14.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.60×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 964M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.69×

- FY2023: 0.68×

- FY2024: 0.63×

- FY2025: 0.55×

- FY2026: 0.19×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 27.0% vs 19.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.14 to 0.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -2.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.5%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 5.4%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 298M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 27.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.14

- FY2018: GBP 0.19

- FY2019: GBP 0.50

- FY2020: GBP 0.09

- FY2021: GBP 0.43

- FY2022: GBP 0.42

- FY2023: GBP 0.35

- FY2024: GBP 0.37

- FY2025: GBP 0.32

- FY2026: GBP 0.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -12.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.46×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.10×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.6%

- FY2018: -0.4%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -10.3%

- FY2021: -11.9%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -12.2%

- FY2024: -10.5%

- FY2025: -8.9%

- FY2026: -12.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 56% since Dec 2021 · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.973Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: GBP 2.4B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.3B 

- FY2020: GBP 3.8B 

- FY2021: GBP 4.8B 

- FY2022: GBP 4.7B 

- FY2023: GBP 5.0B 

- FY2024: GBP 5.5B 

- FY2025: GBP 5.6B 

- FY2026: GBP 5.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 36.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 34.7% 

- FY2018: 33.9% 

- FY2019: 34.2% 

- FY2020: 33.8% 

- FY2021: 36.7% 

- FY2022: 37.5% 

- FY2023: 36.1% 

- FY2024: 37.1% 

- FY2025: 37.6% 

- FY2026: 36.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in discount stores; annual sales are GBP 5.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2026: revenue 5775000000; grossProfit 2103000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BME.LSE: B&M European Value Retail plc operates as a European variety discount retailer in the United Kingdom and France. The company operates through three segments: B&M UK, Heron Foods, and B&M France. It operates a chain of stores under the B&M in the United Kingdom and France, and Heron Foods brand names. The company also engages in general retail, property management, and convenience retail activities. In addition, it sells fast-moving consumer goods and general merchandise products, grocery, and frozen food products. B&M European Value Retail plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Saint Helier, Jersey.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.4% to 37.6% during 2024–26; it earns 23.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3643147836890007],[2018,0.27042979765166786],[2019,0.10556283033504475],[2020,0.13011628094852173],[2021,0.3073437591518772],[2022,0.2555100622844239],[2023,1.1347918136908963],[2024,0.21436244986902148],[2025,0.19198844798509637],[2026,0.1466086411214912]]; median 0.2349362560767227. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3672151635076026],[2022,0.37491975176546116],[2023,0.36142885811759984]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2017: growth capex 23145000; upkeep 26015000; owner earnings 142926000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16193694639183914.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2018: growth capex 60226694.77242176; upkeep 51041305.22757824; owner earnings 171724694.77242178. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3507165632306828.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 103315000; owner earnings 258711000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 87000000; owner earnings 295847000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 96000000; owner earnings 291000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 93000000; owner earnings 236800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 123000000; owner earnings 230600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 131000000; owner earnings 175000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 139000000; owner earnings 30600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,151000000],[2018,63013000],[2019,75042000],[2020,76042000],[2021,697000000],[2022,430000000],[2023,366000000],[2024,348000000],[2025,300000000],[2026,133000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BME.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.125 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.1% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 12.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:26.256Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.027557193872754626. Price 279.6; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.11750692678787145 → FY2026 0.030434588014143133. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 234.60 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 249.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 278.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 300.30 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 298.20 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 299.40 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 337.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 364.30 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 338.70 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 360.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 372.40 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 387.60 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 397.30 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 381.90 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 423.60 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 415.90 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 412.90 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 391.30 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 405.30 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 403.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 404.10 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 412.70 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 412.50 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 386.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 416.80 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 349.30 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 281.50 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 324.20 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 353.50 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 373.60 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 394.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 352.70 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 333.30 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 370.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 357.80 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 379.40 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 370.30 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 378.20 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 409.60 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 363.70 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 333.10 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 275.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 332.80 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 389.70 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 397.50 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 463.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 476.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 494.70 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 484.80 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 477.90 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 516.20 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 535.20 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 546.40 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 527.80 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 565.80 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 576.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 573.20 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 553.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 559.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 590.60 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 633.20 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 620.20 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 634.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 566.20 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 605.40 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 534.20 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 490.20 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 389.70 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 366.70 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 424.30 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 369.90 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 306.10 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 322.60 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 409.30 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 411.30 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 447.70 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 491.80 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 482.10 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 479.70 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 509.80 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 557.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 553.20 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 577.60 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 586.40 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 528.80 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 573.60 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 560.20 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 518.60 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 525.80 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 545.80 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 519.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 544.60 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 437.20 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 468.10 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 445.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 415.20 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 387.60 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 346.90 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 367.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 324.10 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 277.70 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 260.40 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 336.40 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 341.90 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 271.40 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 224.40 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 240.70 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 261.70 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 179.65 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 168.90 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 168.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 176.35 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 191.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 168.50 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 167.40 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 171.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 194.90 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 222.60 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 237.60 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 255.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 279.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 119.09 per share, central GBX 133.51 per share, high GBX 152.70 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 194.20 per share, central GBX 220.05 per share, high GBX 254.47 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 546.38 per share, central GBX 620.04 per share, high GBX 718.11 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 285.73 per share, central GBX 318.84 per share, high GBX 362.91 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 319.72 per share, central GBX 362.12 per share, high GBX 418.57 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 398.11 per share, central GBX 565.31 per share, high GBX 662.68 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 347.70 per share, central GBX 393.75 per share, high GBX 455.06 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 290.98 per share, central GBX 330.11 per share, high GBX 382.19 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 298.16 per share, central GBX 337.82 per share, high GBX 390.62 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 286.52 per share, central GBX 322.92 per share, high GBX 371.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:14.963Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

B&M European Value Retail

BME · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 279.60
Buy up to: GBX 322.77
Expected / yr: 11.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 19.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 9.9%
Worst year: 7.0%
Latest · 2026: 7.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 23.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 13% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 23.5%
Worst year: 10.6%
Latest · 2026: 14.7%

Each $1 of profit left $0.60 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.60×
Annual median: 0.63×
Latest · 2026: 0.19×

Per-share value rose from 0.14 to 0.32, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.33
Worst year: GBP 0.09
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.16

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -12.8% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -9.6%
Worst year: -0.4%
Latest · 2026: -12.8%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 10.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.14 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 234.60; 2016-11 · Price GBX 249.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 278.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 300.30 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-02 · Price GBX 298.20 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-03 · Price GBX 299.40 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-04 · Price GBX 337.00 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-05 · Price GBX 364.30 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-06 · Price GBX 338.70 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-07 · Price GBX 360.00 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-08 · Price GBX 372.40 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-09 · Price GBX 387.60 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-10 · Price GBX 397.30 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-11 · Price GBX 381.90 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2017-12 · Price GBX 423.60 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2018-01 · Price GBX 415.90 · Value 133.51 · Buy at or below 133.51; 2018-02 · Price GBX 412.90 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-03 · Price GBX 391.30 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-04 · Price GBX 405.30 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-05 · Price GBX 403.00 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-06 · Price GBX 404.10 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-07 · Price GBX 412.70 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-08 · Price GBX 412.50 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-09 · Price GBX 386.80 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-10 · Price GBX 416.80 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-11 · Price GBX 349.30 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2018-12 · Price GBX 281.50 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2019-01 · Price GBX 324.20 · Value 220.05 · Buy at or below 220.05; 2019-02 · Price GBX 353.50 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-03 · Price GBX 373.60 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-04 · Price GBX 394.50 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-05 · Price GBX 352.70 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-06 · Price GBX 333.30 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-07 · Price GBX 370.00 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-08 · Price GBX 357.80 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-09 · Price GBX 379.40 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-10 · Price GBX 370.30 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-11 · Price GBX 378.20 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2019-12 · Price GBX 409.60 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2020-01 · Price GBX 363.70 · Value 620.04 · Buy at or below 620.04; 2020-02 · Price GBX 333.10 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-03 · Price GBX 275.80 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-04 · Price GBX 332.80 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-05 · Price GBX 389.70 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-06 · Price GBX 397.50 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-07 · Price GBX 463.00 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-08 · Price GBX 476.00 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-09 · Price GBX 494.70 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-10 · Price GBX 484.80 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-11 · Price GBX 477.90 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2020-12 · Price GBX 516.20 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2021-01 · Price GBX 535.20 · Value 318.84 · Buy at or below 318.84; 2021-02 · Price GBX 546.40 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-03 · Price GBX 527.80 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-04 · Price GBX 565.80 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-05 · Price GBX 576.00 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-06 · Price GBX 573.20 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-07 · Price GBX 553.00 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-08 · Price GBX 559.00 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-09 · Price GBX 590.60 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-10 · Price GBX 633.20 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-11 · Price GBX 620.20 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2021-12 · Price GBX 634.00 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2022-01 · Price GBX 566.20 · Value 362.12 · Buy at or below 362.12; 2022-02 · Price GBX 605.40 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-03 · Price GBX 534.20 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-04 · Price GBX 490.20 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-05 · Price GBX 389.70 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-06 · Price GBX 366.70 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-07 · Price GBX 424.30 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-08 · Price GBX 369.90 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-09 · Price GBX 306.10 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-10 · Price GBX 322.60 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-11 · Price GBX 409.30 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2022-12 · Price GBX 411.30 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2023-01 · Price GBX 447.70 · Value 565.31 · Buy at or below 565.31; 2023-02 · Price GBX 491.80 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-03 · Price GBX 482.10 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-04 · Price GBX 479.70 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-05 · Price GBX 509.80 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-06 · Price GBX 557.00 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-07 · Price GBX 553.20 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-08 · Price GBX 577.60 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-09 · Price GBX 586.40 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-10 · Price GBX 528.80 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-11 · Price GBX 573.60 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2023-12 · Price GBX 560.20 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2024-01 · Price GBX 518.60 · Value 393.75 · Buy at or below 393.75; 2024-02 · Price GBX 525.80 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-03 · Price GBX 545.80 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-04 · Price GBX 519.00 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-05 · Price GBX 544.60 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-06 · Price GBX 437.20 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-07 · Price GBX 468.10 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-08 · Price GBX 445.00 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-09 · Price GBX 415.20 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-10 · Price GBX 387.60 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-11 · Price GBX 346.90 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2024-12 · Price GBX 367.00 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2025-01 · Price GBX 324.10 · Value 330.11 · Buy at or below 330.11; 2025-02 · Price GBX 277.70 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-03 · Price GBX 260.40 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-04 · Price GBX 336.40 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-05 · Price GBX 341.90 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-06 · Price GBX 271.40 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-07 · Price GBX 224.40 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-08 · Price GBX 240.70 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-09 · Price GBX 261.70 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-10 · Price GBX 179.65 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-11 · Price GBX 168.90 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2025-12 · Price GBX 168.80 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2026-01 · Price GBX 176.35 · Value 337.82 · Buy at or below 337.82; 2026-02 · Price GBX 191.00 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-03 · Price GBX 168.50 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-04 · Price GBX 167.40 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-05 · Price GBX 171.00 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-06 · Price GBX 194.90 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-07 · Price GBX 222.60 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-08 · Price GBX 237.60 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-09 · Price GBX 255.40 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-10 · Price GBX 279.60 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92; 2026-10 · Price GBX 279.60 · Value 322.92 · Buy at or below 322.92

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 286.38 – GBX 371.20
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 322.77
Discount to value	1 − 279.60 / 322.77 = 13.4%
Return / year	About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 24.14/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 22.52/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 5.8B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 31M

Owner earnings

Operating margin7.0%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -2.1B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.0B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026