# Bunzl (BNZL.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BNZL.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:37.444Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,842.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 2,465.55 per share, central GBX 2,789.73 per share, high GBX 3,221.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 2,789.73 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:37.444Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.9% at the stated quote. About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.8%

- FY2017: 23.2%

- FY2018: 23.1%

- FY2019: 20.0%

- FY2020: 23.9%

- FY2021: 21.6%

- FY2022: 23.3%

- FY2023: 22.7%

- FY2024: 21.3%

- FY2025: 19.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.34×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.33×

- FY2022: 1.33×

- FY2023: 1.29×

- FY2024: 1.36×

- FY2025: 1.40×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.2% vs 21.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.80 to 1.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: GBP -276M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.1%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.80

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 3.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 4.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.80

- FY2017: GBP 0.94

- FY2018: GBP 0.97

- FY2019: GBP 1.05

- FY2020: GBP 1.28

- FY2021: GBP 1.31

- FY2022: GBP 1.41

- FY2023: GBP 1.56

- FY2024: GBP 1.49

- FY2025: GBP 1.41

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.82×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: -5.4%

- FY2020: -5.2%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -5.4%

- FY2023: -4.3%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 20% since Nov 2024 · "Bunzl Shares Hit 4-Year Lows on Guidance Cut, Share-Buyback Pause" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:05.678Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Bunzl Shares Hit 4-Year Lows on Guidance Cut, Share-Buyback Pause ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/70d48b5f-b450-3b07-b3cf-10f89b0e6443/bunzl-shares-hit-4-year-lows.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: GBP 7.4B 

- FY2017: GBP 8.6B 

- FY2018: GBP 9.1B 

- FY2019: GBP 9.3B 

- FY2020: GBP 10B 

- FY2021: GBP 10B 

- FY2022: GBP 12B 

- FY2023: GBP 12B 

- FY2024: GBP 12B 

- FY2025: GBP 12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2016: 24.4% 

- FY2017: 24.4% 

- FY2018: 24.5% 

- FY2019: 12.4% 

- FY2020: 13.6% 

- FY2021: 12.7% 

- FY2022: 13.5% 

- FY2023: 27.0% 

- FY2024: 28.8% 

- FY2025: 15.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in food distribution; annual sales are GBP 11.8 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: revenue 11845400000; grossProfit 1775000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BNZL.LSE: Bunzl plc operates as a distribution and services company in the North America, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. It provides personal protection and safety equipment, including gloves, boots, hard hats, ear and eye protection, other workwear, as well as cleaning and hygiene supplies and asset protection products; and healthcare consumables, such as gloves, masks, swabs, gowns, bandages, healthcare devices, and other healthcare related equipment. The company also offers cleaning and hygiene materials comprising chemicals and hygiene paper; goods-not-for-resale, including food packaging, films, labels, and other store supplies; non-food consumables, such as food packaging, disposable tableware, guest amenities, catering equipment, and agricultural supplies; and other products. It serves its products to industrial, construction, e-commerce, hospitals, care homes and other facilities serving the healthcare, public sector customers, grocery stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, hotels, restaurants, contract caterers, food processors, commercial growers, leisure, retail customers, and office supply companies. Bunzl plc was founded in 1854 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15% to 28.8% during 2023–25; it earns 22.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.8%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.23766430416269976],[2017,0.23237411756591847],[2018,0.23144435181869022],[2019,0.19972468716752861],[2020,0.23938450045230172],[2021,0.21635377281166723],[2022,0.233261707596507],[2023,0.22710881349920156],[2024,0.21298005986194124],[2025,0.19937324106461757]]; median 0.2292765826589459. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 251.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 18100000; owner earnings 356500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 26300000; owner earnings 412100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 21900000; owner earnings 448300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 36900000; owner earnings 483600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 33100000; owner earnings 569500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 32700000; owner earnings 590060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 46700000; owner earnings 631620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 58300000; owner earnings 677800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 54400000; owner earnings 679280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 71500000; owner earnings 643900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,125400000],[2017,138200000],[2018,152200000],[2019,167300000],[2020,171500000],[2021,180400000],[2022,190500000],[2023,209700000],[2024,228600000],[2025,242200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 251100000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BNZL.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.304 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0034437588915258166. Price 2842; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9050480769230769 → FY2025 1.9751533742331289. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 2,199.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 2,060.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 2,109.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 2,089.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 2,255.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 2,320.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 2,408.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 2,432.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 2,288.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 2,288.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 2,310.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 2,267.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,345.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 2,115.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,072.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 2,060.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,955.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 2,095.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 2,111.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 2,290.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 2,295.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 2,265.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 2,398.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 2,413.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,311.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 2,416.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 2,369.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,400.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 2,373.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,532.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,309.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,115.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,077.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,150.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,013.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,125.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,008.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,123.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,065.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,965.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,870.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,629.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,727.50 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,886.50 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,166.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,198.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,422.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,507.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,400.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,359.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,443.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,350.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,237.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,323.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,327.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,285.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,389.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,666.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,636.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,455.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,702.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,868.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,885.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,767.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,969.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,968.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 3,103.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,767.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 2,719.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 3,071.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 2,861.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 2,760.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,841.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 3,048.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,759.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,970.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,964.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 3,057.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 3,164.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 3,144.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 2,999.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 2,888.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,830.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,926.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,932.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 3,002.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 3,190.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 3,215.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 3,153.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 3,048.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 3,074.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,936.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 3,010.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 3,258.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 3,540.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,534.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 3,412.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 3,558.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 3,296.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 3,448.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 3,368.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 2,966.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 2,350.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,376.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 2,320.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,254.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,502.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,346.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 2,312.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,164.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,076.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 2,048.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 2,194.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 2,256.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 2,422.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 2,354.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 2,630.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 2,802.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 2,792.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,612.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,842.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 1,344.35 per share, central GBX 1,767.39 per share, high GBX 2,061.91 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 1,364.06 per share, central GBX 1,545.38 per share, high GBX 1,786.77 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,701.48 per share, central GBX 2,184.72 per share, high GBX 2,539.88 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,593.23 per share, central GBX 1,795.39 per share, high GBX 2,064.52 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,846.51 per share, central GBX 2,070.62 per share, high GBX 2,368.97 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 1,898.62 per share, central GBX 2,137.03 per share, high GBX 2,454.41 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 2,425.14 per share, central GBX 2,707.80 per share, high GBX 3,084.07 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 2,511.05 per share, central GBX 2,808.53 per share, high GBX 3,204.52 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 2,555.36 per share, central GBX 2,858.53 per share, high GBX 3,262.11 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 2,371.51 per share, central GBX 2,685.66 per share, high GBX 3,103.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:23.730Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31/reports/213800Q1Q9DV4L78UM09-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Bunzl

BNZL · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 2,842.00
Buy up to: GBX 2,789.73
Expected / yr: 9.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 6.9% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 6.3%
Worst year: 5.5%
Latest · 2025: 6.4%

Gross margin fell 4.7 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 22.9%
Worst year: 19.9%
Latest · 2025: 19.9%

Each $1 of profit left $1.34 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.34×
Annual median: 1.33×
Latest · 2025: 1.40×

Per-share value rose from 0.8 to 1.49, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 1.30
Worst year: GBP 0.80
Latest · 2025: GBP 1.41

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.4% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -4.3%
Worst year: -2.8%
Latest · 2025: -4.4%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 6.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 2 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 2199.00 · Value 1767.39 · Buy at or below 1767.39; 2016-11 · Price GBX 2060.00 · Value 1767.39 · Buy at or below 1767.39; 2016-12 · Price GBX 2109.00 · Value 1767.39 · Buy at or below 1767.39; 2017-01 · Price GBX 2089.00 · Value 1767.39 · Buy at or below 1767.39; 2017-02 · Price GBX 2255.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-03 · Price GBX 2320.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-04 · Price GBX 2408.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-05 · Price GBX 2432.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-06 · Price GBX 2288.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-07 · Price GBX 2288.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-08 · Price GBX 2310.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-09 · Price GBX 2267.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-10 · Price GBX 2345.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-11 · Price GBX 2115.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2017-12 · Price GBX 2072.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2018-01 · Price GBX 2060.00 · Value 1545.38 · Buy at or below 1545.38; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1955.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-03 · Price GBX 2095.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-04 · Price GBX 2111.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-05 · Price GBX 2290.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-06 · Price GBX 2295.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-07 · Price GBX 2265.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-08 · Price GBX 2398.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-09 · Price GBX 2413.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-10 · Price GBX 2311.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-11 · Price GBX 2416.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2018-12 · Price GBX 2369.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2019-01 · Price GBX 2400.00 · Value 2184.72 · Buy at or below 2184.72; 2019-02 · Price GBX 2373.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-03 · Price GBX 2532.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-04 · Price GBX 2309.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-05 · Price GBX 2115.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2077.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2150.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2013.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2125.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-10 · Price GBX 2008.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-11 · Price GBX 2123.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2065.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1965.00 · Value 1795.39 · Buy at or below 1795.39; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1870.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-03 · Price GBX 1629.50 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1727.50 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1886.50 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-06 · Price GBX 2166.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-07 · Price GBX 2198.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-08 · Price GBX 2422.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-09 · Price GBX 2507.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-10 · Price GBX 2400.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-11 · Price GBX 2359.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2020-12 · Price GBX 2443.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2350.00 · Value 2070.62 · Buy at or below 2070.62; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2237.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2323.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2327.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2285.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2389.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2666.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-08 · Price GBX 2636.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2455.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-10 · Price GBX 2702.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-11 · Price GBX 2868.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2021-12 · Price GBX 2885.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2022-01 · Price GBX 2767.00 · Value 2137.03 · Buy at or below 2137.03; 2022-02 · Price GBX 2969.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-03 · Price GBX 2968.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-04 · Price GBX 3103.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-05 · Price GBX 2767.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-06 · Price GBX 2719.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-07 · Price GBX 3071.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-08 · Price GBX 2861.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-09 · Price GBX 2760.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2841.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-11 · Price GBX 3048.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2022-12 · Price GBX 2759.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2023-01 · Price GBX 2970.00 · Value 2707.80 · Buy at or below 2707.80; 2023-02 · Price GBX 2964.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-03 · Price GBX 3057.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-04 · Price GBX 3164.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-05 · Price GBX 3144.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-06 · Price GBX 2999.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-07 · Price GBX 2888.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-08 · Price GBX 2830.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-09 · Price GBX 2926.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-10 · Price GBX 2932.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-11 · Price GBX 3002.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2023-12 · Price GBX 3190.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2024-01 · Price GBX 3215.00 · Value 2808.53 · Buy at or below 2808.53; 2024-02 · Price GBX 3153.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-03 · Price GBX 3048.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-04 · Price GBX 3074.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-05 · Price GBX 2936.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-06 · Price GBX 3010.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-07 · Price GBX 3258.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-08 · Price GBX 3540.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-09 · Price GBX 3534.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-10 · Price GBX 3412.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-11 · Price GBX 3558.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2024-12 · Price GBX 3296.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2025-01 · Price GBX 3448.00 · Value 2858.53 · Buy at or below 2858.53; 2025-02 · Price GBX 3368.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-03 · Price GBX 2966.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-04 · Price GBX 2350.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-05 · Price GBX 2376.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-06 · Price GBX 2320.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-07 · Price GBX 2254.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-08 · Price GBX 2502.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-09 · Price GBX 2346.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-10 · Price GBX 2312.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-11 · Price GBX 2164.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2025-12 · Price GBX 2076.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2026-01 · Price GBX 2048.00 · Value 2685.66 · Buy at or below 2685.66; 2026-02 · Price GBX 2194.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-03 · Price GBX 2256.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-04 · Price GBX 2422.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-05 · Price GBX 2354.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-06 · Price GBX 2630.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-07 · Price GBX 2802.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-08 · Price GBX 2792.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-09 · Price GBX 2612.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2842.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2842.00 · Value 2789.73 · Buy at or below 2789.73

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 2,465.55 – GBX 3,221.28
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 2,789.73
Discount to value	1 − 2842.00 / 2789.73 = -1.9%
Return / year	About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 215.11/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 114.33/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 12B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 644M

Owner earnings

Operating margin6.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -2.4B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares326M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·