# BP p.l.c (BP.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BP.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:37.591Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 610.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 15.43 per share, central GBX 16.61 per share, high GBX 18.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 16.61 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:37.591Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.1% at the stated quote. About 3.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.00×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.6%

- FY2017: 5.9%

- FY2018: 8.8%

- FY2019: 7.1%

- FY2020: -6.3%

- FY2021: 6.7%

- FY2022: 32.8%

- FY2023: 22.1%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: 12.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $24B

- Net income, five-year total: $21B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.31×

- FY2022: 0.78×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 2.57×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.9% vs 12.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.01 to 0.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.4%

- Market cap gain: -$41B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$62B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 20.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $16B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.01

- FY2017: $0.18

- FY2018: $0.44

- FY2019: $0.20

- FY2020: -$1.06

- FY2021: $0.37

- FY2022: -$0.13

- FY2023: $0.90

- FY2024: $0.02

- FY2025: $0.00

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 445.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.35×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.0%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -4.9%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -12.6%

- FY2021: -5.6%

- FY2022: -15.1%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: -9.5%

- FY2025: -8.8%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 58.5% a year for ten years · sales +2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.969Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 58.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-11: BP lowers outlook for gas production in first quarter and flags ‘weak’ trading ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-lowers-outlook-gas-production-071743774.html))

- 2025-07-11: BP Flags Up to $1.5 Billion Impairment While Earnings Are Hit by Weaker Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/851b49a2-f01b-3f91-b65b-a7d1663488f3/bp-flags-up-to-%241.5-billion.html))

- 2026-01-14: BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-cautions-over-weak-oil-082253363.html))

- 2026-03-19: BP hikes cost-cutting target again after striking deal to sell German refinery ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-hikes-cost-cutting-target-092944874.html))

- 2026-06-03: BP considers quitting North Sea after Labour tax raid ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-considers-quitting-north-sea-060000558.html))

- 2026-07-14: BP set for further boost from oil prices, but braces for £740m write-down ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-set-further-boost-oil-082133899.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: $166B 

- FY2017: $251B 

- FY2018: $284B 

- FY2019: $280B 

- FY2020: $112B 

- FY2021: $155B 

- FY2022: $241B 

- FY2023: $214B 

- FY2024: $185B 

- FY2025: $189B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 6.8% 

- FY2017: 8.7% 

- FY2018: 9.7% 

- FY2019: 9.4% 

- FY2021: 14.0% 

- FY2022: 22.4% 

- FY2023: 22.2% 

- FY2024: 15.2% 

- FY2025: 17.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 189.3 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 189335000000; grossProfit 33529000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BP.LSE: BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.2% to 22.2% during 2023–25; it earns 7.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 22.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.016231838615055862],[2017,0.05941992503555388],[2018,0.08754371878572141],[2019,0.07077819828934057],[2020,-0.06279106810351806],[2021,0.0668895894658346],[2022,0.3283807146458746],[2023,0.2206610292319794],[2024,0.11654797923322684],[2025,0.12794493871472756]]; median 0.079160958537531. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 4.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2017: growth capex 159218000; upkeep 16402782000; owner earnings 3537773000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04500514871926491.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 1848264000; upkeep 14858736000; owner earnings 8913722000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2073504199480307.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15418000000; owner earnings 5008872000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 10887000000; owner earnings 9691636000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 14285000000; owner earnings 15694697000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 15297000000; owner earnings 47971187.957689166. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 13221000000; owner earnings 141207722.00772202. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,4611000000],[2017,6153000000],[2018,6699000000],[2019,6946000000],[2020,6340000000],[2021,4304000000],[2022,4358000000],[2023,4809000000],[2024,5003000000],[2025,5059000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 4486000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BP.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.28700000000000003 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 58.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.8686818347225342. Price 610.5; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.540227144943259 → FY2025 0.009163528038422545. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 483.70 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 459.45 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 509.60 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 472.85 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 453.55 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 457.55 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 442.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 466.70 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 442.80 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 445.80 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 445.15 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 477.30 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 510.20 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 489.10 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 522.70 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 501.10 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 475.15 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 479.25 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 538.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 576.30 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 578.30 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 573.30 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 547.30 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 589.30 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 567.30 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 520.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 495.95 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 520.10 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 534.40 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 558.50 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 559.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 540.10 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 548.60 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 545.70 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 500.20 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 515.80 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 489.30 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 480.20 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 471.60 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 456.70 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 396.15 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 344.20 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 313.10 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 305.75 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 307.20 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 275.15 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 264.20 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 225.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 196.60 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 247.65 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 254.80 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 271.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 291.75 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 294.65 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 303.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 306.15 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 289.20 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 296.95 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 340.30 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 350.20 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 325.45 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 330.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 382.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 363.55 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 375.35 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 391.55 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 434.25 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 388.30 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 400.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 441.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 433.10 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 479.80 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 497.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 474.90 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 488.85 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 550.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 510.80 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 534.40 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 453.30 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 458.35 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 483.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 487.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 531.40 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 502.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 479.10 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 466.15 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 462.45 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 460.70 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 495.70 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 520.40 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 488.15 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 475.20 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 458.85 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 429.40 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 391.70 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 376.65 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 384.65 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 393.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 422.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 437.35 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 436.10 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 350.30 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 359.75 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 365.70 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 404.75 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 432.10 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 425.75 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 442.30 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 454.20 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 432.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 463.80 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 477.65 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 606.30 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 583.80 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 521.80 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 467.10 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 552.50 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 514.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 549.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 610.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2019: low GBX 222.81 per share, central GBX 244.83 per share, high GBX 274.14 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 165.34 per share, central GBX 174.20 per share, high GBX 185.99 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 219.66 per share, central GBX 235.43 per share, high GBX 256.42 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 274.61 per share, central GBX 301.07 per share, high GBX 336.30 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 269.70 per share, central GBX 294.86 per share, high GBX 328.35 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 48.03 per share, central GBX 48.37 per share, high GBX 48.83 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 14.39 per share, central GBX 15.43 per share, high GBX 16.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:23.681Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31/reports/213800LH1BZH3DI6G760-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.