# Breedon Group (BREE.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BREE.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 320.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 449.85 per share, central GBX 632.60 per share, high GBX 739.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 632.60 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.8% at the stated quote. About 16.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -17.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.1%

- FY2017: 13.9%

- FY2018: 11.0%

- FY2019: 12.5%

- FY2020: 5.7%

- FY2021: 12.4%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 13.9%

- FY2024: 11.2%

- FY2025: 8.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 461M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 477M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 210.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.91×

- FY2023: 0.91×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 1.16×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.0% vs 11.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.14 to 0.28 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: GBP 214M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.9%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.28

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 778M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 746M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.14

- FY2017: GBP 0.18

- FY2018: GBP 0.20

- FY2019: GBP 0.23

- FY2020: GBP 0.10

- FY2021: GBP 0.23

- FY2022: GBP 0.33

- FY2023: GBP 0.31

- FY2024: GBP 0.28

- FY2025: GBP 0.24

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.66×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.8%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Oct 2021 · sales +8.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.324Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: GBP 455M 

- FY2017: GBP 652M 

- FY2018: GBP 863M 

- FY2019: GBP 930M 

- FY2020: GBP 929M 

- FY2021: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 54.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 38.7% 

- FY2017: 37.5% 

- FY2018: 35.4% 

- FY2019: 36.8% 

- FY2020: 32.1% 

- FY2021: 34.8% 

- FY2022: 34.8% 

- FY2023: 82.3% 

- FY2024: 80.5% 

- FY2025: 54.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in building materials; annual sales are GBP 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2025: revenue 1713800000; grossProfit 927700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BREE.LSE: Breedon Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the quarrying, manufacture, and sale of construction materials and building products in the Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States. The company offers aggregates, asphalt, cement, clay bricks, concrete blocks, roof and ridge tiles, ready-mixed concrete, screed, and trowel-ready mortar. In addition, the company provides minimix, on-site batching, surfacing, and waste recovery solutions. It serves a network of customers across the infrastructure, housebuilding and industrial end-markets. The company was formerly known as Breedon Aggregates Limited and changed its name to Breedon Group plc in August 2016. Breedon Group plc was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Derby, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.1% to 82.3% during 2023–25; it earns 11.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 82.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 80.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09140697085233458],[2017,0.1389669679962774],[2018,0.11011499410651256],[2019,0.12450408840454628],[2020,0.05745263572739611],[2021,0.12386314003977268],[2022,0.1590406408350645],[2023,0.13946379841939255],[2024,0.11177183344740774],[2025,0.0872327011018595]]; median 0.11781748674359022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 23729000; owner earnings 38520000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2017: growth capex 6693000; upkeep 39500000; owner earnings 56927000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11757162682031373.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 48600000; owner earnings 72700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 56300000; owner earnings 80200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 38100000; owner earnings 62620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 76900000; owner earnings 78300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2022: growth capex 18500000; upkeep 88300000; owner earnings 102640000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18024162120031176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2023: growth capex 12100000; upkeep 94700000; owner earnings 95900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1261730969760167.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2024: growth capex 19100000; upkeep 112200000; owner earnings 86460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22091140411751098.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 120100000; owner earnings 97260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,8400000],[2019,8400000],[2020,8400000],[2021,8400000],[2022,30500000],[2023,37600000],[2024,48300000],[2025,51500000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 19.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BREE.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 19.615 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:20.577Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.04836782887176455. Price 320.4; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.12812652624359627 → FY2025 0.28055094829451216. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 347.47 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 367.47 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 356.84 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 368.09 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 366.84 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 381.22 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 383.72 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 441.21 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 429.96 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 454.34 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 448.71 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 424.96 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 425.59 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 431.21 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 431.21 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 405.46 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 391.97 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 397.47 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 419.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 415.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 411.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 407.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 391.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 365.50 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 358.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 317.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 295.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 339.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 328.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 338.50 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 349.50 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 359.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 307.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 308.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 308.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 326.50 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 332.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 348.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 415.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 470.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 431.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 338.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 427.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 402.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 390.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 380.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 403.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 355.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 353.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 411.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 437.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 426.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 466.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 467.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 516.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 540.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 539.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 539.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 519.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 493.50 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 490.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 486.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 475.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 427.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 412.50 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 408.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 396.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 352.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 284.50 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 355.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 298.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 266.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 261.50 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 302.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 305.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 342.50 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 355.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 382.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 343.50 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 346.90 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 326.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 364.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 349.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 329.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 312.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 346.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 362.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 363.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 369.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 384.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 362.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 385.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 387.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 431.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 420.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 428.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 440.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 461.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 445.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 436.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 438.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 448.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 430.60 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 456.20 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 386.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 362.60 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 367.40 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 359.20 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 344.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 328.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 329.20 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 336.40 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 357.80 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 298.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 306.40 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 283.40 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 295.60 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 331.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 355.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 328.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 320.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 146.16 per share, central GBX 166.31 per share, high GBX 193.13 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 192.55 per share, central GBX 218.63 per share, high GBX 253.35 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 253.38 per share, central GBX 287.45 per share, high GBX 332.80 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 325.49 per share, central GBX 464.30 per share, high GBX 545.14 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 320.81 per share, central GBX 456.61 per share, high GBX 535.70 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 415.78 per share, central GBX 558.95 per share, high GBX 652.06 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 432.97 per share, central GBX 609.19 per share, high GBX 711.80 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 429.54 per share, central GBX 601.37 per share, high GBX 701.42 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 400.73 per share, central GBX 572.46 per share, high GBX 672.45 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 450.39 per share, central GBX 633.36 per share, high GBX 739.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:48:24.171Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Breedon Group

BREE · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 320.40
Buy up to: GBX 632.60
Expected / yr: 16.8% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 16.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 10.5%
Worst year: 6.6%
Latest · 2025: 7.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 11.8% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 8.7% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 11.8%
Worst year: 5.7%
Latest · 2025: 8.7%

Each $1 of profit left $0.97 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.97×
Annual median: 0.91×
Latest · 2025: 1.16×

Per-share value rose from 0.14 to 0.28, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.23
Worst year: GBP 0.10
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.24

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.2% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -5.0%
Worst year: -3.1%
Latest · 2025: -6.2%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 10.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.27 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 347.47 · Value 166.31 · Buy at or below 166.31; 2016-11 · Price GBX 367.47 · Value 166.31 · Buy at or below 166.31; 2016-12 · Price GBX 356.84 · Value 166.31 · Buy at or below 166.31; 2017-01 · Price GBX 368.09 · Value 166.31 · Buy at or below 166.31; 2017-02 · Price GBX 366.84 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-03 · Price GBX 381.22 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-04 · Price GBX 383.72 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-05 · Price GBX 441.21 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-06 · Price GBX 429.96 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-07 · Price GBX 454.33 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-08 · Price GBX 448.71 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-09 · Price GBX 424.96 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-10 · Price GBX 425.59 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-11 · Price GBX 431.21 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2017-12 · Price GBX 431.21 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2018-01 · Price GBX 405.46 · Value 218.63 · Buy at or below 218.63; 2018-02 · Price GBX 391.97 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-03 · Price GBX 397.46 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-04 · Price GBX 419.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-05 · Price GBX 415.50 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-06 · Price GBX 411.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-07 · Price GBX 407.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-08 · Price GBX 391.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-09 · Price GBX 365.50 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-10 · Price GBX 358.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-11 · Price GBX 317.50 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2018-12 · Price GBX 295.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2019-01 · Price GBX 339.00 · Value 287.45 · Buy at or below 287.45; 2019-02 · Price GBX 328.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-03 · Price GBX 338.50 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-04 · Price GBX 349.50 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-05 · Price GBX 359.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-06 · Price GBX 307.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-07 · Price GBX 308.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-08 · Price GBX 308.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-09 · Price GBX 326.50 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-10 · Price GBX 332.50 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-11 · Price GBX 348.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2019-12 · Price GBX 415.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2020-01 · Price GBX 470.00 · Value 464.30 · Buy at or below 464.30; 2020-02 · Price GBX 431.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-03 · Price GBX 338.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-04 · Price GBX 427.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-05 · Price GBX 402.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-06 · Price GBX 390.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-07 · Price GBX 380.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-08 · Price GBX 403.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-09 · Price GBX 355.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-10 · Price GBX 353.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-11 · Price GBX 411.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2020-12 · Price GBX 437.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2021-01 · Price GBX 426.00 · Value 456.61 · Buy at or below 456.61; 2021-02 · Price GBX 466.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-03 · Price GBX 467.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-04 · Price GBX 516.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-05 · Price GBX 540.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-06 · Price GBX 539.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-07 · Price GBX 539.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-08 · Price GBX 519.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-09 · Price GBX 493.50 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-10 · Price GBX 490.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-11 · Price GBX 486.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2021-12 · Price GBX 475.00 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2022-01 · Price GBX 427.50 · Value 558.95 · Buy at or below 558.95; 2022-02 · Price GBX 412.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-03 · Price GBX 408.00 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-04 · Price GBX 396.00 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-05 · Price GBX 352.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-06 · Price GBX 284.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-07 · Price GBX 355.00 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-08 · Price GBX 298.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-09 · Price GBX 266.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-10 · Price GBX 261.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-11 · Price GBX 302.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2022-12 · Price GBX 305.00 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2023-01 · Price GBX 342.50 · Value 609.19 · Buy at or below 609.19; 2023-02 · Price GBX 355.00 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-03 · Price GBX 382.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-04 · Price GBX 343.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-05 · Price GBX 346.90 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-06 · Price GBX 326.00 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-07 · Price GBX 364.00 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-08 · Price GBX 349.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-09 · Price GBX 329.00 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-10 · Price GBX 312.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-11 · Price GBX 346.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2023-12 · Price GBX 362.00 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2024-01 · Price GBX 363.50 · Value 601.37 · Buy at or below 601.37; 2024-02 · Price GBX 369.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-03 · Price GBX 384.50 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-04 · Price GBX 362.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-05 · Price GBX 385.50 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-06 · Price GBX 387.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-07 · Price GBX 431.50 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-08 · Price GBX 420.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-09 · Price GBX 428.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-10 · Price GBX 440.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-11 · Price GBX 461.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2024-12 · Price GBX 445.50 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2025-01 · Price GBX 436.00 · Value 572.46 · Buy at or below 572.46; 2025-02 · Price GBX 438.00 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-03 · Price GBX 448.50 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-04 · Price GBX 430.60 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-05 · Price GBX 456.20 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-06 · Price GBX 386.00 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-07 · Price GBX 362.60 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-08 · Price GBX 367.40 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-09 · Price GBX 359.20 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-10 · Price GBX 344.60 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-11 · Price GBX 328.60 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2025-12 · Price GBX 329.20 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2026-01 · Price GBX 336.40 · Value 633.36 · Buy at or below 633.36; 2026-02 · Price GBX 357.80 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-03 · Price GBX 298.00 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-04 · Price GBX 306.40 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-05 · Price GBX 283.40 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-06 · Price GBX 295.60 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-07 · Price GBX 331.00 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-08 · Price GBX 355.00 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-09 · Price GBX 328.00 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-10 · Price GBX 320.40 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60; 2026-10 · Price GBX 320.40 · Value 632.60 · Buy at or below 632.60

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 449.85 – GBX 739.01
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 632.60
Discount to value	1 − 320.40 / 632.60 = 49.4%
Return / year	About 16.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 31.37/share; 8.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 23.40/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 1.7B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 97M

Owner earnings

Operating margin7.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -527M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares347M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025