# Bluescope Steel (BSL.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BSL.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 30.84 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 12.02 per share, central AUD 13.42 per share, high AUD 15.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 13.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.01×

- FY2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 17.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 17.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 20.6%

- FY2018: 24.0%

- FY2019: 21.2%

- FY2020: 5.2%

- FY2021: 22.3%

- FY2022: 37.5%

- FY2023: 12.9%

- FY2024: 11.2%

- FY2025: 0.9%

- FY2026: 8.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.61×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 3.4B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 5.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 0.74×

- FY2024: 0.52×

- FY2025: -6.65×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.2% vs 8.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.25 to 1.82 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Market cap gain: AUD 6.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 7.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.8%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 1.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 1.82

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 3.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 10B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 1.25

- FY2018: AUD 2.86

- FY2019: AUD 1.97

- FY2020: AUD 0.19

- FY2021: AUD 2.37

- FY2022: AUD 5.98

- FY2023: AUD 2.22

- FY2024: AUD 1.82

- FY2025: AUD 0.19

- FY2026: AUD 1.82

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.15×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.3%

- FY2018: 3.9%

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -6.2%

- FY2021: -3.5%

- FY2022: 2.0%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -8.4%

- FY2026: -5.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.5% a year for ten years · "US Data-Center Demand Helps Boost Steelmaker BlueScope’s Profit" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +2.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.645Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-02: Australia's BlueScope surges on Trump's plan to double tariffs on steel imports ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-bluescope-surges-trumps-plan-021319394.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 11B 

- FY2018: AUD 12B 

- FY2019: AUD 13B 

- FY2020: AUD 11B 

- FY2021: AUD 13B 

- FY2022: AUD 19B 

- FY2023: AUD 18B 

- FY2024: AUD 17B 

- FY2025: AUD 16B 

- FY2026: AUD 17B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 43.9% 

- FY2018: 41.9% 

- FY2019: 40.4% 

- FY2020: 11.1% 

- FY2021: 18.5% 

- FY2022: 24.8% 

- FY2023: 14.5% 

- FY2024: 39.2% 

- FY2025: 37.0% 

- FY2026: 13.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are AUD 16.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2026: revenue 16662599999; grossProfit 2262300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BSL.AU: BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, North America, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star BlueScope Steel, Buildings and Coated Products North America, Coated Products Asia, and New Zealand & Pacific Islands. It offers coated and painted flat steel products, including zinc/aluminium alloy coated steel; and galvanized and zinc/aluminium alloy coated pre-painted steel, as well as manufactures pipes and tubes. The company is also involved in the supply of hot rolled coils; the provision of engineered building solutions, such as coil paintings; and the development of industrial properties, primarily warehouses and distribution centres. In addition, it provides metal coating, painting, and steel building solutions; and steel slabs, billets, plates, cold-rolled coils, reinforcing coils, rods, wires, and bars, as well as value-added coated and painted steel solutions, as well as operates ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal recyclers. Further, the company offers its products under the COLORBOND, COLORSTEEL, TRUECORE, ZINCALUME, TRU-SPEC, LYSAGHT, FIELDERS, Orrcon Steel, BUTLER, and VARCO PRUDEN brand names for residential and non-residential building, construction, automotive, manufacturing, infrastructure, packaging, transport, agriculture, and mining industries. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as BHP Steel Limited and changed its name to BlueScope Steel Limited in November 2003. BlueScope Steel Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13.6% to 39.2% during 2024–26; it earns 16.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 13.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2062171186253931],[2018,0.24009765625],[2019,0.21214457670483983],[2020,0.05227255144669658],[2021,0.22333512009084686],[2022,0.3748211037850374],[2023,0.1294736399500244],[2024,0.11191200187291632],[2025,0.008710544134574129],[2026,0.08410550522679727]]; median 0.16784537928770876. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 10% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 368700000; owner earnings 726100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2018: growth capex 19800000; upkeep 375600000; owner earnings 1569100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012618698617041617.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 362300000; owner earnings 1043200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2021: growth capex 272600000; upkeep 487800000; owner earnings 1085040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2512349775123498.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2022: growth capex 214200000; upkeep 549500000; owner earnings 2702420000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0792622908356214.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 808700000; owner earnings 750460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 976300000; owner earnings 415040000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2026: growth capex 159916327.04966116; upkeep 1307283672.9503388; owner earnings 70476327.04966116. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.2690786217757357.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); Incremental return on capital 0.10008042837656114, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,103600000],[2018,126600000],[2019,119200000],[2020,83700000],[2021,100900000],[2022,413100000],[2023,436200000],[2024,224900000],[2025,359700000],[2026,854400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 12500000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BSL.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.18 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 17.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:03.767Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16766579210945254. Price 30.84; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.1039757179524907 → FY2026 0.159624651991202. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 7.80 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 9.02 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 9.28 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 11.21 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 12.22 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 12.26 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 11.70 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 11.50 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 13.21 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 13.18 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 10.87 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 10.97 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 12.84 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 13.61 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 15.37 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 14.50 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 16.33 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 15.09 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 16.51 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 17.38 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 17.26 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 17.66 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 17.31 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 16.98 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 14.37 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 11.23 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 10.96 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 12.45 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 13.46 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 13.95 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 13.45 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 10.54 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 12.05 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 13.09 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 12.49 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 12.01 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 13.33 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 14.55 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 15.06 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 14.25 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 11.82 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 8.63 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 10.25 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 11.03 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 11.69 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 11.19 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 12.69 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 12.70 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 14.66 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 17.10 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 17.48 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 16.59 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 16.68 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 19.35 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 21.62 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 21.23 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 21.96 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 24.19 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 25.20 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 20.50 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 20.62 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 19.77 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 20.90 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 18.28 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 20.24 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 20.86 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 20.54 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 18.20 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 15.90 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 16.59 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 16.72 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 15.19 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 15.73 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 17.53 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 16.84 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 19.16 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 19.06 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 20.15 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 19.87 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 18.52 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 20.55 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 21.84 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 21.01 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 19.44 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 18.80 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 20.78 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 23.40 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 23.61 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 22.84 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 23.85 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 22.89 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 21.14 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 20.43 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 22.16 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 20.66 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 22.20 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 20.31 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 22.13 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 18.69 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 21.29 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 24.26 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 21.28 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 23.87 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 22.75 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 23.11 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 23.77 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 22.95 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 22.69 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 22.90 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 24.27 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 24.07 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 30.24 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 28.00 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 25.72 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 29.79 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 31.72 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 31.87 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 32.72 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 31.07 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 30.43 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 30.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 4.15 per share, central AUD 4.59 per share, high AUD 5.18 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 17.09 per share, central AUD 19.26 per share, high AUD 22.16 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 21.80 per share, central AUD 24.43 per share, high AUD 27.94 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 19.72 per share, central AUD 22.12 per share, high AUD 25.32 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 27.44 per share, central AUD 31.82 per share, high AUD 36.48 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 46.69 per share, central AUD 62.20 per share, high AUD 72.40 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 45.77 per share, central AUD 61.83 per share, high AUD 72.06 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 22.06 per share, central AUD 29.00 per share, high AUD 33.68 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 17.83 per share, central AUD 20.12 per share, high AUD 23.17 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 11.93 per share, central AUD 13.31 per share, high AUD 15.15 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:45.249Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.