# Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BSM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:06.053Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $14.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.75 per share, central $20.19 per share, high $23.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $20.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:06.053Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.7% at the stated quote. About 12.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.40×

- FY2018: 0.52×

- FY2019: 0.48×

- FY2020: 0.45×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: 0.62×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: 0.62×

- FY2025: 0.62×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 70.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.5%

- FY2017: 11.5%

- FY2018: 19.1%

- FY2019: 15.8%

- FY2020: 11.0%

- FY2021: 15.6%

- FY2022: 39.0%

- FY2023: 35.0%

- FY2024: 18.7%

- FY2025: 16.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 63.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.25×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.15×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs 18.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.11 to 1.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: -$775M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $150K

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 38.3%

- Per-share value change: $1.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.76

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.11

- FY2017: $0.79

- FY2018: $1.34

- FY2019: $1.04

- FY2020: $0.59

- FY2021: $0.87

- FY2022: $2.12

- FY2023: $1.88

- FY2024: $1.29

- FY2025: $1.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.03×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.6%

- FY2017: -7.9%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -12.8%

- FY2020: -12.9%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: -7.8%

- FY2024: -9.7%

- FY2025: -0.8%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since Nov 2022 · "Is Black Stone Minerals (BSM) Cheap Ahead Of Earnings After A Revenue Decline Forecast?" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -3.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:26.000Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: $261M 

- FY2017: $430M 

- FY2018: $610M 

- FY2019: $493M 

- FY2020: $297M 

- FY2021: $506M 

- FY2022: $784M 

- FY2023: $501M 

- FY2024: $439M 

- FY2025: $422M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 39.9% 

- FY2017: 58.3% 

- FY2018: 66.3% 

- FY2019: 61.9% 

- FY2020: 53.0% 

- FY2021: 75.5% 

- FY2022: 83.9% 

- FY2023: 77.2% 

- FY2024: 76.2% 

- FY2025: 74.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 422.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 422328000; grossProfit 316268000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.9% to 77.2% during 2023–25; it earns 16% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 77.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.025379669470204366],[2017,0.11500681015896609],[2018,0.19142872431957278],[2019,0.1578691570716618],[2020,0.10994771805366681],[2021,0.15635837933173016],[2022,0.3897430629199929],[2023,0.34970509570734787],[2024,0.18729923953052297],[2025,0.16125092448747197]]; median 0.15956004077956687. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Prices rose 35.9%; sales volumes fell.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); [p0] 2 484 Natural gas 125 117 109 103 Other 9 8 6 5 Total 546 549 547 592 1 Source: Baker Hughes Incorporated 49 Natural Gas Storage The majority of the production volumes attributable to our interests is derived from natural gas production. Natural gas prices are significantly influenced by storage levels throughout the year. Accordingly, we monitor the natural gas storage reports regularly in the evaluation of our business and its outlook. Historically, natural gas supply and demand fluctuates on a seasonal basis. From April to October, when the weather is warmer and natural gas demand is lower, natural gas storage levels generally increase. From November to March, storage levels typically decline as utility companies draw natural gas from storage to meet increased heating demand due to colder weather. In order to maintain sufficient storage levels for increased seasonal demand, a portion of natural gas production during the summer months must be used for storage injection. The portion of production used for storage varies from year to year depending on the demand from the previous winter and the demand for electricity used for cooling during the summer months. The EIA forecasts that inventories will conclude the withdrawal season, which is the end of March 2026, at 1.8 Tcf, or 2% higher than the five-year average. The EIA expects inventories will rise to 3.8 Tcf at the end of October 2026, which would be 5% higher than the five-year average. The following table shows natural gas storage volumes by region at the end of each quarter presented: 2025 Region1 Fourth Quarter Third Quarter Second Quarter First Quarter (Bcf) East 736 832 602 284 Midwest 865 972 688 364 Mountain 264 269 228 165 Pacific 307 302 287 202 South Central 1,203 1,186 1,148 758 Total 3,375 3,561 2,953 1,773 1 Source: EIA Natural Gas Exports Net natural 

[p1] xcept for realized prices) Production: Oil and condensate (MBbls) 3,259 3,606 (347) (9.6) % Natural gas (MMcf)1 56,237 62,984 (6,747) (10.7) % Equivalents (MBoe) 12,632 14,103 (1,471) (10.4) % Equivalents/day (MBoe) 34.6 38.5 (3.9) (10.1) % Realized prices, without derivatives: Oil and condensate ($/Bbl) $ 64.24 $ 74.61 $ (10.37) (13.9) % Natural gas ($/Mcf)1 3.41 2.51 0.90 35.9 % Equivalents ($/Boe) $ 31.74 $ 30.27 $ 1.47 4.9 % Revenue: Oil and condensate sales $ 209,361 $ 269,061 $ (59,700) (22.2) % Natural gas and natural gas liquids sales1 191,616 157,907 33,709 21.3 % Lease bonus and other income 21,351 12,461 8,890 71.3 % Revenue from contracts with customers 422,328 439,429 (17,101) (3.9) % Gain (loss) on commodity derivative instruments 47,591 (5,730) 53,321 (930.6) % Total revenue $ 469,919 $ 433,699 $ 36,220 8.4 % Operating expenses: Lease operating expense $ 10,141 $ 9,705 $ 436 4.5 % Production costs and ad valorem taxes 39,024 49,577 (10,553) (21.3) % Exploration expense 18,634 2,735 15,899 581.3 % Depreciation, depletion, and amortization 36,887 45,196 (8,309) (18.4) % General and administrative 55,463 52,082 3,381 6.5 % Other expense: Interest expense $ 8,930 $ 3,109 $ 5,821 187.2 % 1 As a mineral and royalty interest owner, we are often provided insufficient and inconsistent data on NGL volumes by our operators. As a result, we are unable to reliably determine the total volumes of NGLs associated with the production of natural gas on our acreage. Accordingly, no NGL volumes are included in our reported production; however, revenue attributable to NGLs is included in our natural gas revenue and our calculation of realized prices for natural gas. Revenue Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased compared to the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase in total revenue from the corresp

[p2] s of NGLs associated with the production of natural gas on our acreage. Accordingly, no NGL volumes are included in our reported production; however, revenue attributable to NGLs is included in our natural gas revenue and our calculation of realized prices for natural gas. Revenue Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased compared to the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase in total revenue from the corresponding period is due to higher natural gas and NGL sales, higher lease bonus and other income and a gain on commodity derivative instruments in 2025 compared to a loss in 2024. Lower oil revenues, resulting from reduced production and commodity prices, partially offset the overall increase in total revenue. Oil and condensate sales. Oil and condensate sales decreased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to lower realized commodity prices and lower production volumes. The decrease in oil and condensate production was driven by reduced production volumes in the Austin Chalk, Bakken/Three Forks, and Permian Basin play trends. Our mineral and royalty interest oil and condensate volumes accounted for 96% and 95% of total oil and condensate volumes for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. 55 Natural gas and natural gas liquids sales. Natural gas and NGL sales increased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to higher realized commodity prices partially offset by lower production volumes. The decrease in natural gas and NGL production was driven by decreased production volumes in the Austin Chalk and Haynesville/Bossier play trends. Mineral and royalty interest production accounted for 96% and 95% of our natural gas volumes for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respect

[p3] rresponding period is due to higher natural gas and NGL sales, higher lease bonus and other income and a gain on commodity derivative instruments in 2025 compared to a loss in 2024. Lower oil revenues, resulting from reduced production and commodity prices, partially offset the overall increase in total revenue. Oil and condensate sales. Oil and condensate sales decreased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to lower realized commodity prices and lower production volumes. The decrease in oil and condensate production was driven by reduced production volumes in the Austin Chalk, Bakken/Three Forks, and Permian Basin play trends. Our mineral and royalty interest oil and condensate volumes accounted for 96% and 95% of total oil and condensate volumes for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. 55 Natural gas and natural gas liquids sales. Natural gas and NGL sales increased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to higher realized commodity prices partially offset by lower production volumes. The decrease in natural gas and NGL production was driven by decreased production volumes in the Austin Chalk and Haynesville/Bossier play trends. Mineral and royalty interest production accounted for 96% and 95% of our natural gas volumes for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. 

[p4] ariable-to-fixed-price swaps, fixed-price contracts, costless collars, and other contractual arrangements. Under a fixed-price swap contract, a counterparty is required to make a payment to us if the settlement price is less than the contract strike price, and we are required to make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is greater than the contract strike price. Under a costless collar contract, we receive a payment from the counterparty if the settlement price is below the floor price, and we make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is above the ceiling price. If we have multiple contracts outstanding with a single counterparty, unless restricted by our agreement, we will net settle the contract payments. The impact of these derivative instruments could affect the amount of revenue we ultimately realize. Our open derivative contracts consist of fixed-price swap contracts. We may employ contractual arrangements other than fixed-price swap contracts in the future to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations. If commodity prices decline in the future, our hedging contracts will partially mitigate the effect of lower prices on our future revenue. Our open oil and natural gas derivative contracts as of December 31, 2025 are detailed in Note 5 – Commodity Derivative Financial Instruments to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report. Pursuant to the terms of our Credit Facility, we are allowed to hedge certain percentages of expected future monthly production volumes equal to the lesser of (i) internally forecasted production and (ii) the average of reported production for the most recent three months. We are allowed, but not required, to hedge, using swaps and collars with a term of no more than four years, up to 90% of our expected future volumes for t

[p5] ntractual arrangements. Under a fixed-price swap contract, a counterparty is required to make a payment to us if the settlement price is less than the contract strike price, and we are required to make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is greater than the contract strike price. Under a costless collar contract, we receive a payment from the counterparty if the settlement price is below the floor price, and we make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is above the ceiling price. If we have multiple contracts outstanding with a single counterparty, unless restricted by our agreement, we will net settle the contract payments. The impact of these derivative instruments could affect the amount of revenue we ultimately realize. Our open derivative contracts consist of fixed-price swap contracts. We may employ contractual arrangements other than fixed-price swap contracts in the future to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations. If commodity prices decline in the future, our hedging contracts will partially mitigate the effect of lower prices on our future revenue. Our open oil and natural gas derivative contracts as of December 31, 2025 are detailed in Note 5 – Commodity Derivative Financial Instruments to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report. Pursuant to the terms of our Credit Facility, we are allowed to hedge certain percentages of expected future monthly production volumes equal to the lesser of (i) internally forecasted production and (ii) the average of reported production for the most recent three months. We are allowed, but not required, to hedge, using swaps and collars with a term of no more than four years, up to 90% of our expected future volumes for the first 24 months, 70% for months 25 through 36, and 50% for months 37 through 48.

[p6] e swap contract, a counterparty is required to make a payment to us if the settlement price is less than the contract strike price, and we are required to make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is greater than the contract strike price. Under a costless collar contract, we receive a payment from the counterparty if the settlement price is below the floor price, and we make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is above the ceiling price. If we have multiple contracts outstanding with a single counterparty, unless restricted by our agreement, we will net settle the contract payments. The impact of these derivative instruments could affect the amount of revenue we ultimately realize. Our open derivative contracts consist of fixed-price swap contracts. We may employ contractual arrangements other than fixed-price swap contracts in the future to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations. If commodity prices decline in the future, our hedging contracts will partially mitigate the effect of lower prices on our future revenue. Our open oil and natural gas derivative contracts as of December 31, 2025 are detailed in Note 5 – Commodity Derivative Financial Instruments to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report. Pursuant to the terms of our Credit Facility, we are allowed to hedge certain percentages of expected future monthly production volumes equal to the lesser of (i) internally forecasted production and (ii) the average of reported production for the most recent three months. We are allowed, but not required, to hedge, using swaps and collars with a term of no more than four years, up to 90% of our expected future volumes for the first 24 months, 70% for months 25 through 36, and 50% for months 37 through 48. As of December 31, 2025, we had hedged 93

[p7] an the contract strike price, and we are required to make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is greater than the contract strike price. Under a costless collar contract, we receive a payment from the counterparty if the settlement price is below the floor price, and we make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is above the ceiling price. If we have multiple contracts outstanding with a single counterparty, unless restricted by our agreement, we will net settle the contract payments. The impact of these derivative instruments could affect the amount of revenue we ultimately realize. Our open derivative contracts consist of fixed-price swap contracts. We may employ contractual arrangements other than fixed-price swap contracts in the future to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations. If commodity prices decline in the future, our hedging contracts will partially mitigate the effect of lower prices on our future revenue. Our open oil and natural gas derivative contracts as of December 31, 2025 are detailed in Note 5 – Commodity Derivative Financial Instruments to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report. Pursuant to the terms of our Credit Facility, we are allowed to hedge certain percentages of expected future monthly production volumes equal to the lesser of (i) internally forecasted production and (ii) the average of reported production for the most recent three months. We are allowed, but not required, to hedge, using swaps and collars with a term of no more than four years, up to 90% of our expected future volumes for the first 24 months, 70% for months 25 through 36, and 50% for months 37 through 48. As of December 31, 2025, we had hedged 93% and 27% of our available oil and condensate hedge volumes and 100% and 54% of our available natural 

[p8] ice, and we are required to make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is greater than the contract strike price. Under a costless collar contract, we receive a payment from the counterparty if the settlement price is below the floor price, and we make a payment to the counterparty if the settlement price is above the ceiling price. If we have multiple contracts outstanding with a single counterparty, unless restricted by our agreement, we will net settle the contract payments. The impact of these derivative instruments could affect the amount of revenue we ultimately realize. Our open derivative contracts consist of fixed-price swap contracts. We may employ contractual arrangements other than fixed-price swap contracts in the future to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations. If commodity prices decline in the future, our hedging contracts will partially mitigate the effect of lower prices on our future revenue. Our open oil and natural gas derivative contracts as of December 31, 2025 are detailed in Note 5 – Commodity Derivative Financial Instruments to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report. Pursuant to the terms of our Credit Facility, we are allowed to hedge certain percentages of expected future monthly production volumes equal to the lesser of (i) internally forecasted production and (ii) the average of reported production for the most recent three months. We are allowed, but not required, to hedge, using swaps and collars with a term of no more than four years, up to 90% of our expected future volumes for the first 24 months, 70% for months 25 through 36, and 50% for months 37 through 48. As of December 31, 2025, we had hedged 93% and 27% of our available oil and condensate hedge volumes and 100% and 54% of our available natural gas hedge volumes for 202

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 369988000; upkeep 114534000; owner earnings 157187000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.353807884875976.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 174682000; upkeep 122653000; owner earnings 295536000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.591068431595474.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 111301000; owner earnings 212651000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4816000; owner earnings 199021000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 14635000; owner earnings 228371000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 12563000; owner earnings 511721000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 19813000; owner earnings 448419000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4213000; owner earnings 312309000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 11758000; owner earnings 325061000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,182328000],[2017,198576000],[2018,268486000],[2019,328420000],[2020,161343000],[2021,197924000],[2022,343403000],[2023,419824000],[2024,365057000],[2025,315120000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 3777000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 21.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BSM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 21.359 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05566635481484525. Price 14.75; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5880076762585038 → FY2025 1.5352691412135324. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.51 per share

- 2016-11: $18.65 per share

- 2016-12: $18.78 per share

- 2017-01: $18.54 per share

- 2017-02: $17.52 per share

- 2017-03: $16.51 per share

- 2017-04: $15.96 per share

- 2017-05: $16.33 per share

- 2017-06: $15.76 per share

- 2017-07: $16.63 per share

- 2017-08: $17.23 per share

- 2017-09: $17.34 per share

- 2017-10: $18.08 per share

- 2017-11: $17.96 per share

- 2017-12: $17.94 per share

- 2018-01: $18.36 per share

- 2018-02: $17.14 per share

- 2018-03: $16.55 per share

- 2018-04: $17.76 per share

- 2018-05: $18.20 per share

- 2018-06: $18.49 per share

- 2018-07: $17.15 per share

- 2018-08: $18.52 per share

- 2018-09: $18.21 per share

- 2018-10: $17.04 per share

- 2018-11: $16.75 per share

- 2018-12: $15.48 per share

- 2019-01: $16.94 per share

- 2019-02: $17.84 per share

- 2019-03: $17.64 per share

- 2019-04: $18.13 per share

- 2019-05: $16.33 per share

- 2019-06: $15.50 per share

- 2019-07: $15.00 per share

- 2019-08: $14.24 per share

- 2019-09: $14.24 per share

- 2019-10: $13.07 per share

- 2019-11: $11.87 per share

- 2019-12: $12.72 per share

- 2020-01: $10.04 per share

- 2020-02: $8.85 per share

- 2020-03: $4.68 per share

- 2020-04: $6.10 per share

- 2020-05: $6.34 per share

- 2020-06: $6.50 per share

- 2020-07: $7.01 per share

- 2020-08: $6.99 per share

- 2020-09: $6.14 per share

- 2020-10: $6.05 per share

- 2020-11: $7.02 per share

- 2020-12: $6.68 per share

- 2021-01: $8.53 per share

- 2021-02: $8.93 per share

- 2021-03: $8.72 per share

- 2021-04: $10.27 per share

- 2021-05: $9.90 per share

- 2021-06: $10.75 per share

- 2021-07: $10.65 per share

- 2021-08: $10.00 per share

- 2021-09: $12.05 per share

- 2021-10: $12.51 per share

- 2021-11: $11.18 per share

- 2021-12: $10.33 per share

- 2022-01: $11.41 per share

- 2022-02: $12.03 per share

- 2022-03: $13.46 per share

- 2022-04: $15.84 per share

- 2022-05: $16.12 per share

- 2022-06: $13.69 per share

- 2022-07: $15.58 per share

- 2022-08: $15.77 per share

- 2022-09: $15.65 per share

- 2022-10: $18.37 per share

- 2022-11: $18.75 per share

- 2022-12: $16.87 per share

- 2023-01: $16.28 per share

- 2023-02: $15.55 per share

- 2023-03: $15.69 per share

- 2023-04: $16.54 per share

- 2023-05: $15.39 per share

- 2023-06: $15.95 per share

- 2023-07: $17.74 per share

- 2023-08: $17.35 per share

- 2023-09: $17.23 per share

- 2023-10: $18.00 per share

- 2023-11: $17.55 per share

- 2023-12: $15.96 per share

- 2024-01: $16.40 per share

- 2024-02: $15.23 per share

- 2024-03: $15.98 per share

- 2024-04: $15.95 per share

- 2024-05: $16.11 per share

- 2024-06: $15.67 per share

- 2024-07: $15.04 per share

- 2024-08: $14.92 per share

- 2024-09: $15.10 per share

- 2024-10: $14.76 per share

- 2024-11: $15.52 per share

- 2024-12: $14.60 per share

- 2025-01: $14.48 per share

- 2025-02: $14.96 per share

- 2025-03: $15.27 per share

- 2025-04: $14.11 per share

- 2025-05: $13.35 per share

- 2025-06: $13.08 per share

- 2025-07: $12.53 per share

- 2025-08: $12.16 per share

- 2025-09: $13.14 per share

- 2025-10: $13.19 per share

- 2025-11: $14.03 per share

- 2025-12: $13.29 per share

- 2026-01: $14.77 per share

- 2026-02: $15.10 per share

- 2026-03: $15.12 per share

- 2026-04: $14.32 per share

- 2026-05: $13.56 per share

- 2026-06: $13.97 per share

- 2026-07: $14.95 per share

- 2026-08: $14.88 per share

- 2026-09: $14.32 per share

- 2026-10: $14.75 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $8.91 per share, central $10.13 per share, high $11.77 per share

- FY2019: low $9.54 per share, central $10.86 per share, high $12.61 per share

- FY2020: low $6.77 per share, central $7.70 per share, high $8.94 per share

- FY2021: low $11.98 per share, central $13.64 per share, high $15.84 per share

- FY2022: low $18.52 per share, central $21.07 per share, high $24.47 per share

- FY2023: low $16.14 per share, central $18.33 per share, high $21.25 per share

- FY2024: low $15.29 per share, central $17.40 per share, high $20.20 per share

- FY2025: low $15.50 per share, central $17.63 per share, high $20.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1621434/000162143426000018/bsm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Black Stone Minerals LP

BSM · US

A wonderful business at a fair price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price
$14.75
Buy up to
$20.19
Expected / yr
12.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Sales fell in 6 years (limit 5), and margins varied 37.1% around their average (limit 35%).

10y median
50.0%
Worst year
10.5%
Latest · 2025
61.8%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 16% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 11% (minimum 10%).

10y median
16.0%
Worst year
2.5%
Latest · 2025
16.1%

Each $1 of profit left $1.11 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Five-year totals
1.11×
Annual median
1.08×
Latest · 2025
1.08×

Per-share value rose from 0.11 to 1.42, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

10y median
$1.16
Worst year
$0.11
Latest · 2025
$1.42

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -0.8% of assets (limit 10%).

10y median
-7.8%
Worst year
4.1%
Latest · 2025
-0.8%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 50.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.67 USD.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value range$17.75 – $23.45
Buy at or belowCentral value $20.19
Discount to value1 − 14.75 / 20.19 = 27.0%
Return / yearAbout 12.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsOwner cash USD 1.62/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 0.00/share today.
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
Revenue$422M
$784M$020162025
FY2016 · Revenue: $261M; FY2017 · Revenue: $430M; FY2018 · Revenue: $610M; FY2019 · Revenue: $493M; FY2020 · Revenue: $297M; FY2021 · Revenue: $506M; FY2022 · Revenue: $784M; FY2023 · Revenue: $501M; FY2024 · Revenue: $439M; FY2025 · Revenue: $422M
Revenue
Owner earnings$325M
$512M-$99M20162025
FY2016 · Owner earnings: -$99M; FY2017 · Owner earnings: $157M; FY2018 · Owner earnings: $296M; FY2019 · Owner earnings: $213M; FY2020 · Owner earnings: $199M; FY2021 · Owner earnings: $228M; FY2022 · Owner earnings: $512M; FY2023 · Owner earnings: $448M; FY2024 · Owner earnings: $312M; FY2025 · Owner earnings: $325M
Owner earnings
Operating margin61.8%
84.5%0.0%20162025
FY2016 · Operating margin: 10.5%; FY2017 · Operating margin: 40.1%; FY2018 · Operating margin: 52.2%; FY2019 · Operating margin: 47.7%; FY2020 · Operating margin: 44.5%; FY2021 · Operating margin: 37.0%; FY2022 · Operating margin: 61.5%; FY2023 · Operating margin: 84.5%; FY2024 · Operating margin: 62.2%; FY2025 · Operating margin: 61.8%
Operating margin
Net cash / debt-$153M
$68M-$461M20162025
FY2016 · Net cash / debt: -$357M; FY2017 · Net cash / debt: -$406M; FY2018 · Net cash / debt: -$461M; FY2019 · Net cash / debt: -$393M; FY2020 · Net cash / debt: -$143M; FY2021 · Net cash / debt: -$134M; FY2022 · Net cash / debt: -$13M; FY2023 · Net cash / debt: $68M; FY2024 · Net cash / debt: -$22M; FY2025 · Net cash / debt: -$153M
Net cash / debt
Diluted shares212M
225M020162025
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 191M; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 199M; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 221M; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 207M; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 207M; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 208M; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 224M; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 225M; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 211M; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 212M
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·