# BioXcel Therapeutics (BTAI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BTAI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:32:46.609Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $0.05 per share; close as of 2026-10-08.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 10

- Operating margin variation: 2.00×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: -3,386,707.82×

- FY2022: -425.72×

- FY2023: -124.48×

- FY2024: -29.68×

- FY2025: -78.30×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -57.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -302.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 10

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.0%

- FY2017: 0.0%

- FY2018: -40.6%

- FY2019: -95.1%

- FY2020: -31.2%

- FY2021: -37.9%

- FY2022: -73.8%

- FY2023: -302.4%

- FY2024: -539.5%

- FY2025: -279.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$580M

- Net income, five-year total: -$581M

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 5962694.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1217.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$107M

- FY2022: -$166M

- FY2023: -$179M

- FY2024: -$59M

- FY2025: -$70M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.0% vs -302.4%

- Per-share earnings: -2.12 to -23.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 28.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 55.2%

- Market cap gain: $32M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$696M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 28.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 55.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$21.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$23.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 6.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$721M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -302.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.12

- FY2017: -$7.50

- FY2018: -$21.16

- FY2019: -$31.76

- FY2020: -$60.51

- FY2021: -$64.69

- FY2022: -$94.67

- FY2023: -$98.33

- FY2024: -$23.51

- FY2025: -$5.73

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -27.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 6.28×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11800.0%

- FY2017: -172.9%

- FY2018: -13.2%

- FY2019: -13.9%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -10.2%

- FY2022: -14.8%

- FY2023: -32.6%

- FY2024: 32.4%

- FY2025: -27.3%

## Holders

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 100% since Feb 2023 · sales -71.7%

Story as of 2026-10-11T09:47:50.090Z; price observation 2026-10-08.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -71.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720893/000110465926036214/btai-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2016: $0 

- FY2017: $0 

- FY2018: $0 

- FY2019: $0 

- FY2020: $24.30 

- FY2021: $0 

- FY2022: $375K 

- FY2023: $1.4M 

- FY2024: $2.3M 

- FY2025: $642K 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720893/000110465926036214/btai-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2022: 94.7% 

- FY2023: 8.7% 

- FY2024: 5.4% 

- FY2025: 74.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 642000.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720893/000110465926036214/btai-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: revenue 642000; grossProfit 478000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); BTAI.US: BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc., together with its subsidiary, OnkosXcel Therapeutics LLC, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that utilizes artificial intelligence approaches to develop medicines in neuroscience and immuno-oncology in the United States. The company IGALMI, a sublingual film for the acute treatment of agitation associated with schizophrenia or bipolar I or II disorder in adults. It also develops its neuroscience candidate, BXCL501, which is an investigational, proprietary, orally dissolving sublingual film formulation of dexmedetomidine in Phase 3 trial for the treatment of agitation associated with bipolar disorders, schizophrenia, and Alzheimer's disease, as well as opioid use disorder, alcohol use disorder with comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder, and acute stress disorder; and its immune-oncology candidate, BXCL701, which is an investigational oral innate immune activator that has completed Phase 1b/2a trial for the treatment of aggressive forms of prostate cancer, pancreatic cancer, and other solid and liquid tumors. In addition, the company engages in the development of BXCL502 for the treatment of stress-related neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia and other stress-related disorders; BXCL503, a drug candidate to target apathy in dementia; and BXCL504, which has the potential to address apathy and aggression in dementia. The company has collaborations with Columbia University, Yale University Medical School, and University of North Carolina for the development of BXCL501. BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut. On August 27, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc., along with its affiliates, filed a voluntary petition for reorganization under Chapter 11 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 5.4% to 74.5% during 2023–25; it lost 57.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 8.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 5.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720893/000110465926036214/btai-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,-0.40551261282110623],[2019,-0.9506084371866494],[2020,-0.31207371922565535],[2021,-0.3787176383565328],[2022,-0.7378389525598048],[2023,-3.024061413673233],[2024,-5.395444850700792],[2025,-2.7973323471400393]]; median -0.5716757826904555. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); BTAI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price is 0.9 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Closing price 0.047850001603364944 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 0.05258846657929227; price multiple 0.9098953575917123. FY2025 cash earnings/share -5.700933813892529. Closing-price date 2026-10-08.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-03: $10.24 per share

- 2018-04: $7.60 per share

- 2018-05: $10.99 per share

- 2018-06: $9.20 per share

- 2018-07: $10.05 per share

- 2018-08: $9.20 per share

- 2018-09: $7.66 per share

- 2018-10: $5.08 per share

- 2018-11: $4.83 per share

- 2018-12: $3.86 per share

- 2019-01: $5.36 per share

- 2019-02: $8.48 per share

- 2019-03: $9.89 per share

- 2019-04: $10.62 per share

- 2019-05: $10.69 per share

- 2019-06: $10.96 per share

- 2019-07: $10.77 per share

- 2019-08: $9.81 per share

- 2019-09: $7.04 per share

- 2019-10: $4.16 per share

- 2019-11: $6.22 per share

- 2019-12: $14.61 per share

- 2020-01: $16.57 per share

- 2020-02: $37.50 per share

- 2020-03: $22.35 per share

- 2020-04: $37.00 per share

- 2020-05: $46.56 per share

- 2020-06: $53.01 per share

- 2020-07: $45.36 per share

- 2020-08: $40.75 per share

- 2020-09: $43.36 per share

- 2020-10: $45.69 per share

- 2020-11: $44.00 per share

- 2020-12: $46.20 per share

- 2021-01: $46.32 per share

- 2021-02: $53.61 per share

- 2021-03: $43.16 per share

- 2021-04: $33.97 per share

- 2021-05: $33.03 per share

- 2021-06: $29.06 per share

- 2021-07: $25.59 per share

- 2021-08: $29.45 per share

- 2021-09: $30.35 per share

- 2021-10: $29.14 per share

- 2021-11: $22.93 per share

- 2021-12: $20.33 per share

- 2022-01: $16.90 per share

- 2022-02: $18.31 per share

- 2022-03: $20.91 per share

- 2022-04: $13.11 per share

- 2022-05: $11.70 per share

- 2022-06: $13.20 per share

- 2022-07: $15.44 per share

- 2022-08: $13.68 per share

- 2022-09: $11.82 per share

- 2022-10: $12.59 per share

- 2022-11: $16.57 per share

- 2022-12: $21.48 per share

- 2023-01: $28.52 per share

- 2023-02: $31.92 per share

- 2023-03: $18.66 per share

- 2023-04: $20.62 per share

- 2023-05: $17.94 per share

- 2023-06: $6.66 per share

- 2023-07: $9.14 per share

- 2023-08: $3.78 per share

- 2023-09: $2.53 per share

- 2023-10: $4.02 per share

- 2023-11: $3.80 per share

- 2023-12: $2.95 per share

- 2024-01: $3.22 per share

- 2024-02: $3.18 per share

- 2024-03: $2.82 per share

- 2024-04: $2.52 per share

- 2024-05: $1.81 per share

- 2024-06: $1.28 per share

- 2024-07: $1.12 per share

- 2024-08: $0.62 per share

- 2024-09: $0.61 per share

- 2024-10: $0.67 per share

- 2024-11: $0.41 per share

- 2024-12: $0.37 per share

- 2025-01: $0.33 per share

- 2025-02: $2.16 per share

- 2025-03: $2.03 per share

- 2025-04: $1.85 per share

- 2025-05: $1.18 per share

- 2025-06: $1.81 per share

- 2025-07: $1.31 per share

- 2025-08: $4.05 per share

- 2025-09: $2.56 per share

- 2025-10: $2.05 per share

- 2025-11: $2.25 per share

- 2025-12: $1.60 per share

- 2026-01: $1.59 per share

- 2026-02: $1.67 per share

- 2026-03: $1.34 per share

- 2026-04: $1.23 per share

- 2026-05: $1.17 per share

- 2026-06: $1.41 per share

- 2026-07: $0.81 per share

- 2026-08: $0.16 per share

- 2026-09: $0.05 per share

- 2026-10: $0.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720893/000110465926036214/btai-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.