# BW LPG (BWLP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/BWLP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:27:09.188Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $24.48 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $38.99 per share, central $44.15 per share, high $51.02 per share. Buy at or below the central value $44.15 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:27:09.188Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.3% at the stated quote. About 16.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.73×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.22×

- FY2017: -0.02×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.33×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 17.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 17.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.4%

- FY2017: -0.3%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: 11.5%

- FY2020: 12.6%

- FY2021: 7.0%

- FY2022: 12.7%

- FY2023: 28.0%

- FY2024: 13.3%

- FY2025: 11.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.51×

- FY2023: 1.21×

- FY2024: 0.94×

- FY2025: 1.30×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.1% vs 13.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.30 to 2.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Market cap gain: $1.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $438M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.80

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.27

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.17

- FY2017: -$0.30

- FY2018: -$0.48

- FY2019: $1.98

- FY2020: $1.94

- FY2021: $1.31

- FY2022: $1.65

- FY2023: $3.67

- FY2024: $2.49

- FY2025: $1.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.4%

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -6.9%

- FY2019: -2.3%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -5.4%

- FY2022: -11.0%

- FY2023: -1.0%

- FY2024: -12.5%

- FY2025: -9.3%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.9% a year for ten years · "BW LPG Q2 Profit Drops To $43.4 Mln On Lower Revenue" (nasdaq.com, Aug 2025) · sales +9.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:26.458Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-26: BW LPG Q2 Profit Drops To $43.4 Mln On Lower Revenue ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bw-lpg-q2-profit-drops-434-mln-lower-revenue))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2016: $494M 

- FY2017: $497M 

- FY2018: $490M 

- FY2019: $819M 

- FY2020: $892M 

- FY2021: $1.2B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $3.1B 

- FY2024: $3.4B 

- FY2025: $3.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2016: 60.7% 

- FY2017: 42.3% 

- FY2018: 38.4% 

- FY2019: 51.5% 

- FY2020: 49.1% 

- FY2021: 24.8% 

- FY2022: 26.2% 

- FY2023: 22.8% 

- FY2024: 16.5% 

- FY2025: 14.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are USD 3.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: revenue 3687352934; grossProfit 532234639; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.4% to 22.8% during 2023–25; it earns 11.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 22.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0442389338074268],[2017,-0.0025265699701428478],[2018,0.0011670632093370471],[2019,0.11461670527744118],[2020,0.1259819828135826],[2021,0.06964053373962256],[2022,0.1266637273568543],[2023,0.280353190067546],[2024,0.13346813109953704],[2025,0.11417510181871691]]; median 0.11439590354807905. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years; bought back USD 45.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 11766000; owner earnings 15748579. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 21675000; owner earnings 379121190. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 66436000; owner earnings 369278767. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 37644246; upkeep 150166754; owner earnings 179988000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20914864324288285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 46295000; owner earnings 336165926. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 116679000; owner earnings 588904288. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 378596764.6937277; upkeep 223652235.30627233; owner earnings 313150330.6937277. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2089936608242289.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 187649336; owner earnings 325226936. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2016,104891000],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,59606000],[2020,126614000],[2021,99507000],[2022,126705000],[2023,405493000],[2024,388461000],[2025,205725104]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: cash repurchases 45657786 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 36% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); BWLP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 35.996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.10967270283732816. Price 24.48; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $3.15 per share

- 2016-11: $3.15 per share

- 2016-12: $4.19 per share

- 2017-01: $5.20 per share

- 2017-02: $5.20 per share

- 2017-03: $5.20 per share

- 2017-04: $5.20 per share

- 2017-05: $3.98 per share

- 2017-06: $3.98 per share

- 2017-07: $3.98 per share

- 2017-08: $4.23 per share

- 2017-09: $4.23 per share

- 2017-10: $3.73 per share

- 2017-11: $3.73 per share

- 2017-12: $4.15 per share

- 2018-01: $4.15 per share

- 2018-02: $4.52 per share

- 2018-03: $4.72 per share

- 2018-04: $3.80 per share

- 2018-05: $3.77 per share

- 2018-06: $3.77 per share

- 2018-07: $4.56 per share

- 2018-08: $4.56 per share

- 2018-09: $4.56 per share

- 2018-10: $4.47 per share

- 2018-11: $4.47 per share

- 2018-12: $4.47 per share

- 2019-01: $4.47 per share

- 2019-02: $3.75 per share

- 2019-03: $3.75 per share

- 2019-04: $3.75 per share

- 2019-05: $3.75 per share

- 2019-06: $4.55 per share

- 2019-07: $4.55 per share

- 2019-08: $4.55 per share

- 2019-09: $4.55 per share

- 2019-10: $4.55 per share

- 2019-11: $4.55 per share

- 2019-12: $8.53 per share

- 2020-01: $8.99 per share

- 2020-02: $5.75 per share

- 2020-03: $2.60 per share

- 2020-04: $3.47 per share

- 2020-05: $3.51 per share

- 2020-06: $3.59 per share

- 2020-07: $3.66 per share

- 2020-08: $4.15 per share

- 2020-09: $4.15 per share

- 2020-10: $4.54 per share

- 2020-11: $5.20 per share

- 2020-12: $6.60 per share

- 2021-01: $7.32 per share

- 2021-02: $5.84 per share

- 2021-03: $7.05 per share

- 2021-04: $7.51 per share

- 2021-05: $6.98 per share

- 2021-06: $6.46 per share

- 2021-07: $5.93 per share

- 2021-08: $5.47 per share

- 2021-09: $5.44 per share

- 2021-10: $5.34 per share

- 2021-11: $4.98 per share

- 2021-12: $5.50 per share

- 2022-01: $5.51 per share

- 2022-02: $5.87 per share

- 2022-03: $6.64 per share

- 2022-04: $6.41 per share

- 2022-05: $7.83 per share

- 2022-06: $7.30 per share

- 2022-07: $8.00 per share

- 2022-08: $6.63 per share

- 2022-09: $6.30 per share

- 2022-10: $7.88 per share

- 2022-11: $8.90 per share

- 2022-12: $7.74 per share

- 2023-01: $8.13 per share

- 2023-02: $8.73 per share

- 2023-03: $7.56 per share

- 2023-04: $7.94 per share

- 2023-05: $8.39 per share

- 2023-06: $9.72 per share

- 2023-07: $11.00 per share

- 2023-08: $12.86 per share

- 2023-09: $12.69 per share

- 2023-10: $14.25 per share

- 2023-11: $15.10 per share

- 2023-12: $15.05 per share

- 2024-01: $12.29 per share

- 2024-02: $12.01 per share

- 2024-03: $12.01 per share

- 2024-04: $14.68 per share

- 2024-05: $21.93 per share

- 2024-06: $19.08 per share

- 2024-07: $16.46 per share

- 2024-08: $15.85 per share

- 2024-09: $14.40 per share

- 2024-10: $12.80 per share

- 2024-11: $12.27 per share

- 2024-12: $11.36 per share

- 2025-01: $12.67 per share

- 2025-02: $11.34 per share

- 2025-03: $10.88 per share

- 2025-04: $9.88 per share

- 2025-05: $10.46 per share

- 2025-06: $11.83 per share

- 2025-07: $13.36 per share

- 2025-08: $15.57 per share

- 2025-09: $14.28 per share

- 2025-10: $13.45 per share

- 2025-11: $12.69 per share

- 2025-12: $13.10 per share

- 2026-01: $15.64 per share

- 2026-02: $18.23 per share

- 2026-03: $17.37 per share

- 2026-04: $19.94 per share

- 2026-05: $19.60 per share

- 2026-06: $17.43 per share

- 2026-07: $22.56 per share

- 2026-08: $24.25 per share

- 2026-09: $25.05 per share

- 2026-10: $24.48 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $2.99 per share, central $3.31 per share, high $3.72 per share

- FY2021: low $15.18 per share, central $17.16 per share, high $19.80 per share

- FY2022: low $29.04 per share, central $32.78 per share, high $37.76 per share

- FY2023: low $57.00 per share, central $64.63 per share, high $74.77 per share

- FY2024: low $54.39 per share, central $61.67 per share, high $71.36 per share

- FY2025: low $40.70 per share, central $46.15 per share, high $53.40 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:32:48.547Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649313/000110465926037215/bwlp-20251231x20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.